Snow Showers Die Down Today

9am Sunday…

It appears the weather has played out as expected with “Mr. South Wind” keeping us from getting an overnight snowstorm in the lowest elevations.  When we get that breeze keeping the lowest part of the airmass stirred up, we only get sticking snow to the valley floor during the heavy showers.  And the showers just haven’t been heavy enough all night to do the job (drop 1-2″).  I’ve seen it happen dozens of times in my 25 years forecasting in our area.  As with all the other snow events in the past month; most models (with some interpretation) have done very well again.  In fact this is the first winter that I’ve seen them do better some some human forecasts!

(9:24am:  The NWS just dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for most of us.  Now in effect only above 500′)

All lowest elevation airport observation sites from Salem to Scappoose are above freezing and will stay that way through the day.  Many of us are in the mid 30s, so it’s reasonable to expect high temperatures up around 40 once the showers back off.

For those of you that ARE getting snow up around 500-1,000′ and above, expect another 1″ or so before the showers turn to just flurries around 10am or so.  Farther south in the Willamette Valley towards Eugene the showers will continue through the afternoon.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • There won’t be any significant accumulation of snow in the lowest elevations north of Salem the rest of today.
  • But any area could get a dusting as showers pass over
  • Temperatures remain ABOVE freezing through at least 3-4pm
  • ROADS REMAIN CLEAR AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
  • All wet roads freeze after sunset at some point as skies clear
  • We’ll be sunny, but cold the next 2 days

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37 Responses to Snow Showers Die Down Today

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    We been snowing off and on.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Really, Mark?

    You and your team should know better than this. The models are a complete clusterf’k for next weekend, but none of them — not a single one — are showing anything even remotely close to this anymore. And what, did you guys ignore or just completely miss the massive ZR sig for Wednesday??

    Wow, how embarrassing… 😳

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The ECMWF and it’s ensembles show almost exactly what is in the 7 Day right now. If it decides to push moisture farther north on the 00z run I’ll add in something for Wednesday. Geez, a little uptight tonight?

    • Gene says:

      Typical of today’s society. You can’t just disagree with someone, especially as an amateur questioning a person who’s a respected professional in his field — you have to be obnoxious and disrespectful in the process. THAT’S embarrassing.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      I didn’t specialize in meteorology getting my science degree (biology). I was marveling at the Euro and asking myself if it could be true. Then I read this post.

      Come on W7ENK. You well know the masses have to be warned even for a few flurries several days out or they cry fowl! How long you been here?

      Speaking for myself personally, I’ve never seen anyone do such progressive analysis. Not one meteorologist in my eyes to the level of Mark for PDX. He does a damn good job with the tools he’s got.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      And that’s seriously the highest compliment I know of to give in the scientific community. Working on a second degree in Computer Science now I can say that a computer weather model the combination of the GFS + Euro + CFS is what the NW needs for a meteorologist (i.e. to just sit back and relax).

      Even then, probably need to look at the charts. You know more than that W7ENK then me. I don’t doubt that since I recognize your username from when I got here.

      Meteorologists otherwise have no choice but to warn the public of every little sneeze down the line. The weather science is still a very new field relative to say biology or say chemistry. I’ve been here as a hobby for 10 years and that I can safely say.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      I don’t doubt you’re just venting. Hell if I’m not. The GFS + Euro + CFS thing has been itching at my skull for awhile.

      I’ve been half tempted to see what opensource project has been going on to address this but I’ve been buried in a startup company I’m trying to help get on its feet.

      Heck if I don’t want to just scream myself. NOAA needs to get off their @$$.

      The government, I guess it’s to be expected. Now I’m mad.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      I am just wondering if these models have A.I..and if they can learn and then adjust for next time around.

      Well..We could ask Mark if he has a “Weather Stick”. Lol…

      Also some people study nature …I am not sure the name of the science.. But it is where people study animals and plants and then use that dsta to predict weather.

      And..I am sorry for making that comment last summer or fall with regards to stating to expect at least 2 major with ter weather events…I made that guess based on animals and how plants were preparing…

      I never wished for this.

      Now , I was being sarcastic on the no snow comment lol..I was taunting nature lol..

      Bad idea….

      At any rate…I think we will have a late spring this year..
      Our summer will be mild with a fee record breaking hot days.

      We will have a rough transition in spring…I….don’t want to say….the t word…you know…those things the get back East… But I have a strong feeling we may at least get an F2.

      Probably in Washington.

      Given the last few years..and the number of tornadoes we had..I and going to guess on this. And given the fact we have been getting at least one a year in the last 3 years..I am going to start thinking these will be a new norm.

      I hope to be wrong.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Oh Erik, Erik, Erik…..

    • W7ENK says:

      Oops, sorry, forgot to use the § (Sarcasm mark.) lol 😆

      You people are too easy…

  3. Marc (Brush Prairie, WA) says:

    You did a great job in the immediate metro area (accumulation-wise), but I don’t know about Battle Ground and areas north (yesterday), and Canby, Oregon City and areas south tonight. Sure looks like a snowstorm in those areas.

    I think the NWS called the snowstorm in BG and areas north last night but missed it here in the immediate PDX area. Just goes to show how difficult it is to forecast in these setups.

  4. Jason hougak says:

    +3

  5. BD says:

    That new 7-day sure looks interesting!

  6. Paul D says:

    I think somebody got past Mark’s name filter.

  7. Anonymous says:

    I think you should stop using your whole first name. Just use your first and middle initials and full last name – it would be very fitting.

  8. John Fairplay says:

    It also seems as if the precipitation last evening came in much, much earlier than predicted. It was pretty much all over at Sylvan before 9 pm when we weren’t supposed to get anything before midnight.

  9. Sapo says:

    Wow Kelso/Longview/Columbia Heights are getting crushed with snow right now…I wish it was further south over PDX haha

    • Ron says:

      I had to drive from Astoria to Olympia (and back) today. Lots of snow from Clatskanie to Longview and then north for a ways. Returned by cutting across to Aberdeen and then south. It took a little more time, but was completely dry and stress free.

  10. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Looks like us in Cowlitz County are getting the snow pretty good. According to the radar it’s just circling around above us. I had to pick up my daughter at a friends house up the highway about an hour and a half ago and I was the first person to blaze the trail on the highway (Spirit Lake Hwy) which was kind of bizarre to say the least. Stopped by the store on the way home and there were a lot of kids in snow gear heading up to the mountain. What a great way to end the Christmas break!

  11. W7ENK says:

    The Dome did its job.

    Now on to some mediocre cold for a couple days before the next “slightly too warm for snow” event on Friday… 😂😂

    Enjoy!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Yeah, 6 days away is hardly calling for confidence on such an event occurring. This weekend was a total flop here. A bit of a slushy dusting last night that only was seen on the cars.

      Easily gone by morning.

  12. Glen says:

    Looks like talk of a big arctic blast disappeared as fast as the falling snow, lol.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Hard to say, I think it still could happen.
      Its just that the pacific Northwest is the hardest thing to predict.

      Personal opinion.it seems like we don’t have enough data for these models to predict the weather accurately.

      Maybe I am wrong…But it seems to me these things need to Learn.. Our weather…
      Heck my weather station is saying rain is on the way. But it is in “learning mode” after replacing the batteries.
      It is also read in 33 and 99 percent Humidity .

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Seems q link gave out free internet.

    • Sapo says:

      Yeah glen 850s will still be cold (bottoming out around -10c), but more of a backdoor blast where east winds will keep us in the freezer

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Brrrr…
      Here is a video I tried to put together.

      Just on the Altitude notes…I am estimating…

      I tried to do an example of micro climates.
      Sure ain’t easy to do lol.
      Micro Climates in Long view Washington: http://youtu.be/ZSauezcxF6s

      Hope you at least enjoyed The drive
      By the way…that sure was some heavy wet snow…I have not seen trees bend like that before.

  13. Max in Fairview says:

    Mark showing why he doesn’t bust often. However, I am still hopeful some something fun later in the week. Models still struggling.

    • Sapo says:

      yeah GFS/GEM bring precip in by wednesday, Euro holds it off til the weekend it looks like

    • John Fairplay says:

      No one ever went broke betting against snow in the greater Portland area. The only question is whether the moisture doesn’t arrive as expected, or the cold air doesn’t arrive as expected.

  14. Lee Wilson says:

    Is it supposed to rotate like that?
    1 1 2017: http://youtu.be/4–zRqUDfw4

  15. Lee Wilson says:

    Snow 9:34 AM January 1 2017: http://youtu.be/aMvOkzO1VKg
    This is what it is doing right now

  16. Rich Hardenstein says:

    Currently snowing west of Longview right now, one half inch accumulation in last 10 mins. Otherwise spot on!

    Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPad

  17. Lee Wilson says:

    34 Snowing and sticking.

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