All evening models are in now. There will only be one more set of model runs in tomorrow morning before our big event (well, at least big to our south and east).
What’s different? In the big picture very little. Cold air is pouring through the Gorge with gusts around 70 mph at Vista House and just below 60 mph at Corbett. Temperatures in those locations are now down to where they were just before last Thursday’s event. Evaporational cooling (temp drops when precip falls into a dry airmass) should bring us all down TO freezing when precip arrives early-mid afternoon.
The Portland metro area will be right on the northern edge of a band of snow stretching across much of Oregon.
Two minor changes:
- Timing: Models (as a whole) are slightly slower bringing in the precipitation and getting it out of here as well. I’d be surprised to see anything other than flurries before 1pm. The ECMWF keeps some sort of snow going until late evening too.
- Accumulations: The GFS/GEM/ECMWF were all SLIGHTLY wetter (whiter in this case). At most there is enough precip for 3″ of snow. But in a nod to the tight gradient of no snow to the north to 3″+ at Salem, I’ll leave our 1/2″ to 2″ forecast the same.
This is what I’ve used on-air this evening and I guess it counts as my final forecast…we’ll see what happens!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen