Quick Tuesday Evening Update: Forecast on Track

11pm Tuesday…

All evening models are in now.  There will only be one more set of model runs in tomorrow morning before our big event (well, at least big to our south and east).

What’s different?  In the big picture very little.  Cold air is pouring through the Gorge with gusts around 70 mph at Vista House and just below 60 mph at Corbett.  Temperatures in those locations are now down to where they were just before last Thursday’s event.  Evaporational cooling (temp drops when precip falls into a dry airmass) should bring us all down TO freezing when precip arrives early-mid afternoon.

The Portland metro area will be right on the northern edge of a band of snow stretching across much of Oregon.

Two minor changes:

  1. Timing: Models (as a whole) are slightly slower bringing in the precipitation and getting it out of here as well.  I’d be surprised to see anything other than flurries before 1pm.  The ECMWF keeps some sort of snow going until late evening too.
  2. Accumulations:  The GFS/GEM/ECMWF were all SLIGHTLY wetter (whiter in this case).  At most there is enough precip for 3″ of snow.  But in a nod to the tight gradient of no snow to the north to 3″+ at Salem, I’ll leave our 1/2″ to 2″ forecast the same.

marksnow_pdx_models

This is what I’ve used on-air this evening and I guess it counts as my final forecast…we’ll see what happens!

bmac-snow_textpanel

marksnow_otherareas2

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to Quick Tuesday Evening Update: Forecast on Track

  1. Anonymous says:

    Willie from Mt. Angel just measured 3.5 inch of snow since 2pm

  2. W7ENK says:

    Finally, upgraded to a WSW

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1242 PM PST WED DEC 14 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=7640469

  3. pappoose in scappoose says:

    What’s happening in the sweet spot, Boydo3 N. Albany?
    (barrage of jokes to follow)

  4. Washougal1100ft says:

    Models trending little more moisture for the north! 3″-4″ I don’t think would be out of reason for Portland!

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Mark said Albany would get a lot of snow. Instead they will just have freezing rain. So the low must be further north than predicted. That means more snow for Portland metro than this blog post predicts. We’re all snow here and almost at an inch, but 10 miles to the south not a flake.

  5. Alohabb says:

    To the bonehead on 28th and burnside….stop pressure washing outside!! The sidewalk and building is turning icy!

  6. Does look like the front is approaching the Albany area…?

  7. John says:

    Any idea what Gresham will look like today? I am at work on Sylvan Hill today so just trying to plan my escape route out of the city back to the east side

  8. W7ENK says:

    Is it still too early to hold my breath??

  9. Al Koholic says:

    Just saw a ton of moisture from the south…folks we are in for it!

  10. Jack in Corbett says:

    The gorge wind machine has been steady most of the night. I’m having 50 to 60 mph and Vista house is hitting 60 to 70. Freezing all night and now 27. Just hope we don’t get ice damage like last week.

  11. Sapo says:

    I think we may see more snow than forecast…Models have been trending wetter, the general consensus is around 3″ per the latest runs, 4″ in south metro. Could end up as more, follow radar and WV loop and we’ll see!

    • Alohabb says:

      Only thing I worry about is the darn dry east wind scouring out all that moisture. But I’m far from a good analyzer, so bring on more snow forecast! The laser Christmas lights I got this year look amazing with snow!!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Alohabb, think positive. We get blizzard like conditions the meaner the gorge gets when the snow finally does come.
      Always makes it feel like we get more snow! Well, almost. 😀

      Which the wind has gotten worst since last night. Fir trees are roaring right now in my neighborhood. This be Winter for me.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Sapo, thanks for the thoughts. I think we’re in for it more than forecasted. Of course that’s my noobish assessment but I’m glad more exp. eyes agree.

  12. Max in Fairview says:

    Snowing nicely per this cam down in Corvallis.

    http://webcam.oregonstate.edu/cascades

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Precipitation has started here in Eugene…light snow mixed . Could be a real mess down here.

  14. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Power went out around 12:30am and then came back on for about 2 minutes. Pretty crazy down cycle / noise both times! Looks like they’ve restored the power for the whole block (around 1:53am). Not too bad. I was expecting around 5am tbh.

    My guess because it’s not too windy here (gusts only at 30mph tops) it was probably some damaged tree branches that decided to finally come down.

    Thanks for the update Mark!

  15. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Power out near Nadaka Nature Park (12:30am). Power came back on for about 2 minutes
    and then went out again. Looks like the whole grid by the noise…

  16. Destiny says:

    I live in Albany and I work 3:30-midnight tomorrow. I’m really nervous about driving in the snow. How bad do you think the commute will be? How much snow is expected by 3:30? And I’m assuming it will be pretty bad by midnight. Now sure what to do 😦

  17. John says:

    Fingers crossed for snow but not another tree destroying ice event.

    Question: what is the best guess for road conditions in Portland metro on Thursday?. I have a business meeting and am trying to guess if I should plan on the client canceling.

  18. Diana F. says:

    ARGH!! The old “Clark County Misses Out Again” headline……well, at least there’s the wind, and I do really enjoy wind as well as snow!

    AND THANKS for all your hard work during these times, Mark!

    I know you’re kept plenty busy right about now.

    It’s especially appreciated as Cliff Mass hasn’t commented at all about this winter, or this event; he’s been pretty quiet overall. So this blog is extra-needed : )

    • W7ENK says:

      Cliff Mass hasn’t commented because this “event” misses his area by roughly 200 miles. Hard to imagine he’d really care all that much.

    • Diana F. says:

      Uh ok W7. Though you might want to read his latest entry. He actually cares about the whole darn Pacific Northwest. Can you imagine?

  19. Dringus says:

    Trending north and wetter tonight Mark. No concern?

  20. marinersfan85 says:

    I think you’re gonna miss this one Mark. Only one way to find out though.

%d bloggers like this: