Forecasting specific totals for Wednesday’s event would be a very risky endeavor this evening. This is the one time I think we don’t have a good idea what’s going to happen over the metro area just 48 hours ahead of time. We need to give it more time and several more model runs to see if they come together and tighten up their forecasts. This is quite similar to what happened in early February 2014. Just two days ago it appeared that Wednesday’s system would be totally missing us to the south. Then in the past two days models have trended north and wetter over us. But again this evening there has been a southward trend again; several show LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION OVER US WEDNESDAY! Take a look at this compilation of the evening runs.
I made a rough conversion of rain to snow, assuming a 1 to 10 ratio. On average 1″ of rain can give you 10″ of snow. Wetter snow a bit less, drier snow more for each inch of rain. Do you see why it would be nuts to forecast a snow total right now? You can see the closest approach of the precipitation at 4pm Wednesday on our RPM model:
I do have high confidence with three points
- Central Oregon and the Central/Southern Oregon Cascades are going to get hammered! That .87″ at Bend could give them 8-10″ snow since cold northerly flow will be pushing south into that part of the state.
- IF we get precipitation (likely in the form of snow) then it would arrive Wednesday afternoon at some point.
- Wednesday will likely be a dry day in most of Western Washington.
Stay tuned, I GUARANTEE there will be more twists and turns the next 24 hours!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen