This will be very short; I’ll have time later today for a more in-depth posting.
I’m real busy the first part of today: Fixing a faucet, a weather school visit, & a meeting. Then I need to figure out the forecast for the later shows. Here are a few things I notice right away:
- Cold east wind returns Tuesday, but it’ll be dry and reasonably comfortable…highs around 40.
- We probably have some sort of snow/ice event coming later Wednesday & Wednesday night as a very wet system will move directly across Oregon from west to east, mainly across the southern portion of the state.
- As of now, it could be a BIG deal, or it might be only flurries because models haven’t decided on the exact track and how much moisture makes it this far north
- Parts of our viewing area could even be dry! Check out this mornings WRF-GFS 24 hour precipitation forecast ending 4am Thursday, when the “event” is over:
This is only ONE run of ONE model so this is only one possibility. In this case Astoria and Kelso would see nothing…a dry afternoon/evening, Portland gets maybe an inch of mainly snow, and Redmond/Bend get hammered with a major snowstorm. The more trusty ECMWF is juicier, showing between 1/2 and 1″ of precipitation! That would obviously be a big deal.
I’m very confident we’ll see something different on the next 3 main model runs (each 12 hours). This event is still 48+ hours away.
So you should be thinking and preparing for the possibility that SOMETHING frozen may fall Wednesday afternoon/night. Otherwise just chilly and dry until that time and AFTER that time too (Thursday-Saturday).
Gotta go…I’ve kids to educate and meetings to attend…but at least the kitchen faucet is working.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen