Another Busy Weather Week!

11:45am Monday…

This will be very short; I’ll have time later today for a more in-depth posting.

I’m real busy the first part of today:  Fixing a faucet, a weather school visit, & a meeting.  Then I need to figure out the forecast for the later shows.  Here are a few things I notice right away:

  1. Cold east wind returns Tuesday, but it’ll be dry and reasonably comfortable…highs around 40.
  2. We probably have some sort of snow/ice event coming later Wednesday & Wednesday night as a very wet system will move directly across Oregon from west to east, mainly across the southern portion of the state.
  3. As of now, it could be a BIG deal, or it might be only flurries because models haven’t decided on the exact track and how much moisture makes it this far north
  4. Parts of our viewing area could even be dry!  Check out this mornings WRF-GFS 24 hour precipitation forecast ending 4am Thursday, when the “event” is over:

or_pcp24-72-0000

This is only ONE run of ONE model so this is only one possibility.  In this case Astoria and Kelso would see nothing…a dry afternoon/evening, Portland gets maybe an inch of mainly snow,  and Redmond/Bend get hammered with a major snowstorm.  The more trusty ECMWF is juicier, showing between 1/2 and 1″ of precipitation!  That would obviously be a big deal.

I’m very confident we’ll see something different on the next 3 main model runs (each 12 hours).  This event is still 48+ hours away.

So you should be thinking and preparing for the possibility that SOMETHING frozen may fall Wednesday afternoon/night.  Otherwise just chilly and dry until that time and AFTER that time too (Thursday-Saturday).

Gotta go…I’ve kids to educate and meetings to attend…but at least the kitchen faucet is working.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

54 Responses to Another Busy Weather Week!

  1. Diana F. says:

    Aw shoot. We’re supposed to go to the Keller Auditorium on Thursday night at 7:30 pm, for the opening performance of the Nutcracker Ballet at 7:30 PM!

    Sounds like the weather could be a problem ❄️

    Which, as a statement on its own, is a dream come true for this weather geeky, mad-for-snow household!
    ☃️🌨🌨❄️❄️🌨🌨☃️

    It would, however make me very sad if we had to miss the event this year. It’s been a tradition every year since Lolo was born eight years ago. 👯👯👯👯

    Thankfully, tradition also calls for hiring a driver to take us to the Keller, since I do not like driving to downtown PDX at night, particularly coming from East County Vancouver.

    A professional driver may come in quite handy this year! BRING IT ON, Mother Nature!!!!

  2. SW says:

    I sure wish Rob, Paul and the others we back! I enjoyed their analysis. I guess it’s time to find another board. If any of the afore mentioned are on other boards, I would be interested in joining.

    • Deer Is. at 750' says:

      I agree, however this is still my most trusted course for the weather

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      SW, I see it as an opportunity to learn. Rather then having other more experienced people giving their forecast predictions you can make your own. See how close you were when they come back.

      Granted, I’ve been here long enough to know Sapo and W7ENK are conservative when it comes to their opinions (i.e. they hold back).

      Secondly, the computer models are really messed up.

      Thirdly, there are events where everyone on the blog can be completely blind to an upcoming event (and I do mean everyone). I remember quite clearly how much everyone was in shock as the models all stayed in agreement for 8 days straight (or was it 10 days? – I’m sure more exp. will vet me on that one) before the 2008 event.

      Everyone was riding that.

  3. MasterNate says:

    Where’s Dave??

  4. Stephanie says:

    Thank you for your information. Helps us make decisions for the kiddos.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    I’m dreaming of a white Christmas. It looks to me like a very good chance of a White of at least cold Christmas. Actually looks like a chance of more snow next week as well as we look to stay cool to cold through December the 28th. Snowlovers this may be your Winter for snow and cold. 49 today which is the 4th consecutive day of at least 49. Also our 24th straight day of rain. Peace.

  6. Sapo says:

    Interesting how models are still somewhat uncertain this far out, considering at this point last week we had a bit more confidence with that storm. However, the 12z runs were all in pretty good agreement, 4″+ for PDX (Euro came in with 8″), which I liked to see. NAM is a bit of an outlier but it generally isn’t very accurate…

    And then there’s the 18z GFS, gives us a couple inches but keeps precip south. I don’t trust it simply because the GFS kind of sucks, and its inconsistency. A few runs ago it was showing the low making landfall near Vancouver Island, now showing it too far south.

    The ECMWF is usually the more consistent and accurate model in these situations, so I’m trusting that one for now. Yeah there’s a little wishcasting in there, but it’s probably going to be the most accurate.

    • Mark says:

      I’m just amazed that it is 2016 – almost 2017 – and we still don’t have systems in place that can figure out how storms will move in 48 hours…

      Then again, we can’t even figure out how to get back to the moon with any reasonable costs, and what took 2 years to design and build the 747, it now takes over a decade to make new planes…

      So much for “progress.”

      Can I stick metal in a microwave oven yet?!…

    • Scooter says:

      Mark I’m so glad we don’t have your “systems” in place, for God sake can’t anything be a mystery anymore in this technical driven fanatically obsessed society that would like the world to be created by Nvidia graphics cards.

      Happy Honda Days to All

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      I’m sorry scooter I’d respond but I just had a baby on second life. =P

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      On a serious note however. This system is giving a lot of disagreement among the models. It’s a total fight in the beauty pageant prep room before the walk. Oh my, I need to stop. I’ll see myself out.

  7. Brian Schmit says:

    PORTLAND WEATHER UNCENSORED
    https://www.facebook.com/groups/PortlandWeatherUncensored/

    Come join this fun weather group and stay up to date with model coverage 24/7. We just love the wish casting involved with Portland Winter Weather events. Currently at 1225 members and growing rapidly.

  8. W7ENK says:

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    213 PM PST MON DEC 12 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=7583484

  9. specialK says:

    Where’d all the weather geeks go? Used to be these comments would be overflowing with great knowledge from many amateur weather folks, but seems like it has dried up since last year.

    Where’d they all go?

  10. Roland Derksen says:

    A surprise snowfall here overnight: I only got about an inch, but some places closer to the border (south Surrey) had up to 6 inches. Looks like sunny skies and cold temperatures after today, though.

  11. JJ78259 says:

    Sounds like there could be some Global Cooling under the Dome this week. My brother is flying in on Wednesday to Portland also he may have to stay over in Pheonix to get some more Golf in! Sunny and 70 in the San Antonio area.

  12. Paul D says:

    Since my daughter is supposed to fly in from Indiana Wednesday evening, it will be a blizzard or ice event of epic proportions 🙂

  13. Gene says:

    Thanks as always for the update, Mark. Could be some exciting times ahead; we all need to be prepared for the possibility of a big event, though of course it could also disappoint

  14. AlexQS says:

    Thanks for making a few minutes for us Mark. 🙂

  15. Max in Fairview says:

    As long as the ice stays away, I’m fine. Don’t need anymore damage from ice, heh.

  16. AJ_Ferndale says:

    Wow! Here is hoping you guys get some snow.

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