4pm: A Good Forecast For Most

We’re in continuous coverage here at FOX12 at this hour (through 7pm at least), so just a brief note.  We’ve converted to mainly freezing rain in the metro area right on schedule.

Forecast was excellent for today, I’m in a pretty good mood after navigating two very tough snow forecasts this week (that includes the snow showers Monday)…It was mainly dry the first part of the day, then at noon everyone in the metro area had at least a trace as a line of snow squalls moved through.  I don’t see anyone that got more than 2″ either.  So a Trace to 2″ was just about right.  Models overdid the moisture a bit and definitely were too zealous converting the moisture to snow accumulation.  I was a bit concerned after Monday that it could happen again.  Part luck and part experience with that success.  One miss was the higher snowfall forecast from Hillsboro to Forest Grove.  That didn’t happen.  Those western areas converted to freezing rain just as fast as as the rest of the metro too.

What happens now?  Moisture supply somewhat runs out this evening.  We’ll go just to very light showers overnight…of course as mainly freezing rain.  Hilltop areas that are in the 20s and the eastern metro will stay totally frozen.  Roads shouldn’t get any worse in the other lower elevation areas

AM COMMUTE:  Still totally frozen in the hills and east of I-205 towards the Gorge.  A mix of wet and slushy/icy roads elsewhere.  Then we all thaw as the day wears on, even in hills and at Troutdale.



Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

47 Responses to 4pm: A Good Forecast For Most

  1. Runtmc says:

    Going to sleep in the studio tonight, Mark? Brutal drive home, I imagine. Be safe.

  2. Still snowing lightly. Moderate-sized flakes. About 1.5″ accumulation so far. Everything is nice and quiet outside.

  3. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Just looked out the window and it’s still snowing. No switch over here.

  4. Snow seems to be coming in pulses, sometimes light, sometimes moderate. About 1/2″ accumulation so far. Streets are white, gritters are on patrol. Temperature has fallen to 31 degrees F. Easterly breezes seem to be picking up.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    GFS model is bold about the cold arctic air in the model run. The 00Z was 81% complete and shows quite the arctic outbreak. The Climate Prediction Center shows 60% probability for below average temps in the 7-14 day outlook. Hold onto your hats.

    • Diana F. says:

      I’ve been watching this too, Jason. Seems too good to be true….but WOW, what if it is an accurate reflection of weather to come! Yeehaw hold on!

    • Fingers crossed that this winter will make up for the recent run of disappointing ones. And we’re off to a good start, given that it’s early December and almost all of us have already now seen sticking snow.

    • AlexQS says:

      I’m excited about this. In Molalla we were only teased with snow today. I’m ready for a more widespread event!

  6. Leeateea says:

    Great forecast Mark,I received about a 1/4 to 1/2 an inch of snow here in the Shaw/Aumsville area at 620′ before switching to sleet and then freezing rain!Definitely a great call for forecasting and as we all know these are super hard to forecast and it always seems like the cold air always tends to stick around longer than expected!By the way we are still sitting at 30 and lots of ice,probably going to be interesting in the morning if we don’t get a warm up overnight!

  7. Jason Hougak says:

    Pretty impressive, Santiam Pass went from 12F at 4:30 up to 35F now, Sister went from 17F at 4:30 to 15F now. So strange going over that pass with rain at the summit with it getting colder and snowing in Sisters.

  8. Sapo says:

    Yeah you pretty much nailed it Mark…Although as we saw today a trace to 2″ can cripple the metro area haha, so even though it’s not a lot the impacts can be big. Good call though! I was on the upper end of accumulations with 2″ at my house in Tigard, but I haven’t heard of anyone getting more. Now let’s hope for something next week!

  9. Still 30 here in Fairview/Troutdale, and getting super light freezing rain. Wondering if Reynolds School District and MHCC will have a late start to classes tomorrow. Props to Mark for a pretty darn good call with this system. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on next week.

  10. Snow is here (Bainbridge Island, WA, across the water from Seattle) at last!

  11. Maybe a repeat late next week??

  12. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Just got an email that there is no school tomorrow. Not going to tell the kids that though. He He.
    So far no warming here and everything that falls out of the sky is snow. Up to 4″ now.

  13. JohnD says:

    Yeah this was a great event in and of itself. I was off work today and took a 6 hour winter wonderland hiking sojourn all over town from inner SWPDX through downtown and back-via Waterfront Park. 1″ of snow does wonders! This could be our year! Next week looks GREAT too–at least potentially!

  14. Longview 400 ft says:

    Currently 30.9
    Snowing heavily.
    Almost 3 inches!

  15. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Still snowing. Well actually we had some ice pellets for a little bit but now back to all snow. 3.5 inches and counting. Temp is 30 after briefly going up to 32.

  16. GTS1K' says:


    ZR, ice pellets, sleet (I may be repeating myself) howling East wind as strong as any today and 26.6….

    …bring it!

  17. Lurkyloo says:

    Fun weather day so far. Flurries started right around 9am, then the snowing and blowing for about 5 hours or so. Changed to zr an hour or two ago. I’m a block from Rose City Golf Course. Started a fire in the fireplace early, and made some hot apple cider (gotta supplement the kids’ snowday!).

    What’s next?

  18. Lee Wilson says:

    Please tell me this is wrong…
    Freeze snow thaw the freeze on Monday night? Then back to snow on the 17?

    I hope I get my solar panel Monday ..or..tomorrow if I am lucky lol. That would be nice to have an additional 100 watts.

  19. Jake-(Gresham) says:


    Holy guacamole and pink elephants. It’s pouring freezing rain out there right now. Temp. went up one degree to 31F. What a mess!

  20. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Yeah, I usually take my car out for a small drive to practice and get used to Winter driving in the neighborhood. Almost fell on my tush going in my backyard to take out the trash. I’m staying home lol!

    Yea no kidding it’s like a small quake when it happens!

  21. Lee Wilson says:

    Well this was the only camera that had a charge.
    But this is how much snow we got.

  22. Longview 400 ft says:

    2 1/4 of total snow
    Currently 31.3

  23. angela says:

    I’m up in the hills of Vader, right outside Castle Rock, and we have about 4in. its still snowing and 29 degrees. Any ideas if we’ll have a major warm up overnight?

  24. Lee Wilson says:

    Mark, I don’t think it can get any worse for us.
    May cancel school tomorrow. ..Al though the robo call did say see you Friday.

    We are at 32. And a god 2 inches.

    The snow can go now.

  25. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Thanks for the update Mark. Things have gotten nasty here around Nadaka Nature Park East of I-205.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Thanks, this storm is an interesting one. Very little snow (an inch at most) and looks like no big deal but the 2 freezing rain showers have changed the ballgame here.

      NE 181st Ave (major street to I-84 here) is now crawling at 10MPH ~ 15MPH. With the just the blowing snow people were driving near speed limit just 1 hour and 30 minutes ago. Total zoo now here on the East side. I hope nobody hits a power poll like two winters ago. Knocked the power out to most of the neighborhood.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      Ouch.. not sure if we will get the freezing rain or not..

      Our power lines are wriggling though..not sure if sone one had hit a power poll or if we had a small quake…
      I am.not driving any where to find out lol.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Yeah, I usually take my car out for a small drive to practice and get used to Winter driving in the neighborhood. Almost fell on my tush going in my backyard to take out the trash. I’m staying home lol!

      Yea no kidding it’s like a small quake when it happens!

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