Record Warm Start to November; But Cooler Ahead

9pm Wednesday…

The first 9 days of November 2016 have been the warm!  In fact it’s the warmest start to November we’ve ever seen in Portland.  We set a record high temperatures again today in Portland:

markwarm_portlandrecords_november

Yesterday (Election Day) was the warmest November day in 10 years here in Portland!  Back then (2006) we were going through a rainy/flooding event so we sure weren’t seeing all these sunny days!  Several other cities hit records today…

markrecordwarmnovembertemps

By the way, lost in all the election excitement yesterday was the record high temperature at Redmond.  They hit 75, which was the 2nd warmest November day on record.  Bellingham saw their all-time November high temperature set too, that was 73 degrees.

There is a very warm air mass over the western USA and it’ll remain parked overhead through Friday.  So the 65 and 64 degree records for PDX the next two days are threatened as well.

So when does it go back to normal?  Take a look at the 500mb height anomaly from the ECMWF ensemble forecast system for Monday (the 14th)

ecmwf_mon

You see the warm ridge over us about to get squished by an approaching upper-level trough.  Just two days later we finally get our first cool upper-level trough of the season.  Snow should fall all the way to Gov’t Camp the middle of next week.  This is Wednesday:

ecmwf_wed

Then another trough comes through late next week…here’s Sunday the 20th:

ecmwf_sun_20th

 

Jump ahead to two weeks ahead and it’s the same thing…lower than normal heights over us on Thanksgiving Day.

ecmwf_thanksgiving

Ouch…I’m doing a 10k Turkey Trot Thanksgiving morning in Reno….brrrr.  These maps do not depict an “arctic air” type setup with a big upper-level ridge out over the Pacific…more of a cool split-flow sort theme.  It’s definitely cooler than normal and will be a sharp change from the first half of the month.  Check out the ensemble chart from the same ECMWF run this morning

tseries_850t_000-360_portland

you can see from next Tuesday (the 15th) through the end of the run, 850mb temps (the temperature around 5,000′) are forecast to be at or below normal just about the entire time.  The average for this time of year is the green line.  Temperatures is in Celsius.  The pattern ahead is not excessively wet, but about what we would typically see in mid-November.

Enjoy the last of the warm weather the next few days!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

59 Responses to Record Warm Start to November; But Cooler Ahead

  1. Roland Derksen says:

    38.7F for a minimum temperature this morning. That’s certainly no record, but at least it’s the coolest temperature I’ve seen here since October 12th!

  2. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Thanks for finally taking out the trash, Mark.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Cascade Winter Wonderland this morning. Even the base at Ski Bowl picked up a decent amount of snow.

  4. High Desert Mat says:

    First snowflakes of this fall here in Redmond. Wet sloppy flakes with a bit of wind in the realm of 40 mph. Unexpected to say the least. Has now stopped though. Temp went from 46 to 37 in half hour.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Excitement in the air for sure Mat!

    • JJ78259 says:

      Up to 6 inches of snow up at Timberline since 4 am today looking great keep it going! My family and I coming for week skiing in January hoping for a ton of snow! We got the rain going so it should be great just need some cold air!

  5. runrain says:

    Santiam Pass cam: a winter wonderland! And big white fluffies pounding down at Govy. Just not sticking yet.

  6. JJ78259 says:

    Nice band of Rain heading into Portland lots of yellow!

  7. jakeinthevalley says:

    radar is back!!!

  8. Marc (Brush Prairie, WA) says:

    If you are ultra sensitive to words on here, perhaps the internet isn’t the place for you.

  9. JJ78259 says:

    Looks like we will be in the Weather Dan weather temperature range the next 2 days 85 degrees and sunny! Not bad for mid November. Kids will getting in some November Pool Time!

  10. Scooter says:

    🖕

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    Still no Portland Radar, anybody know when it’ll be back up and working?

  12. JJ78259 says:

    Beautiful fall day in San Antonio 80 degrees not a cloud in the sky. Super Moon was quite nice tonight. Still 63 degrees at 10 pm. Ditto tomorrow!

  13. Jason Hougak says:

    The extended forecast is looking promising for Timberline to build their snowpack for the ski season😀

  14. WEATHERDAN says:

    9 of 14 mornings above 50. Incredibly warm for November. No cold air in sight. At this rate we will have another all time warmest month. And the beat goes on. Peace.

  15. Nice sunny morning here- boy, I needed that! More showers coming for tomorrow and Wednesday, but at least the freezing level is dropping and snow is going to appear on the mountains again.

  16. Jason Hougak says:

    Snow coming to the lower Cascades, ski season is about to begin!

  17. record heat warms souls
    cold hearts blaze from elections
    planet spins and laughs

  18. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Larry…..time for a haiku..
    please.

  19. Marc (Brush Prairie, WA) says:

    Almost time for a graphics update over there, eh Mark?

  20. A little bit cooler today with the temperature this afternoon just under the 50 degree mark. Sure could use a couple of sunny days with frosty mornings soon- everything looks like it’s going to rot!

  21. High Desert Mat says:

    Nice and warm in Redmond today. A little humid relatively as well. Got the xmas lights up today. I thought I may as well do it while it’s nice outside because we all know winter is coming and coming soon enough.

  22. Windsday says:

    Unfortunately that won’t happen unless Mark enforces that rule and actually boots the users who spew political stuff on a weather blog.

    I don’t see that happening at least Mark doesn’t dangle carrots with paid global warming alarmist stuff like TWC W-underground and other big corporate places.

  23. Windsday says:

    Been humid down in the valley in the afternoon/evenings with nice mornings however.

    Today though is more humid then when it was in the 70s.

  24. It’s the warmest ever start to a November here as well, over 52F for the first 11 days for the mean temperature. Sure hope it ends this week. If not, I’ll have to mow my lawn for the first time ever in the month!!

  25. Jason Hougak says:

    Drove back from a successful elk hunt trip. Drove through the worst fog last night between Condon and Wamic. The fog was so thick you could barely see one dashed yellow line. It was like we were flying. Hunted Wednesday afternoon in shorts. We hunted between 4-5K and the lowest temp was 26 with a high Wednesday of 70. Warmest elk hunting trip I’ve ever been on. If we made Portland and Eugene there own state Oregon would be Republican. Just ridiculous to come back west of the Cascades to see this. Those city dewellers need to see how life is out in real America where families work for a living. I meet ranch hands who work for next to nothing mending fences and actually enjoy life. Disgusting to see people who just want a free hand out from our government.

    • Mike says:

      I enjoyed reading your post above. Thank you for that Jason.

    • geo says:

      Ummmm… I’m a city dweller and I work. Been a proud Teamster for 36 years and still counting!

    • Scooter says:

      Jason, your childish comments are as always good for a laugh……also your childish over simplified observations are worth a chuckle too….If your greedy biligaana land Barrons. hadn’t stolen this land from the Native Americans there too would be beauty and peaceful existence here in the Northwest….not just for those poor “ranch hands” mending fences but also for the rightful owners of this land we now trespass on. Heil Hottel.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Wow scooter. The Libs around Portland really are fanatics. If people like you ran our country, we’d probably be like Germany pre 1945. There’s a reason people across the nation think the west coast cities are a dangerous place, I’m starting to think their points are valid.

    • JJ78259 says:

      The colder wetter weather will turn off the protests just as it did with the occupy crowd. Rain helps cleanse everything!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Geo, I’m sure your not protesting and burning American Flags… it was a generalization. Don’t be too sensitive.

      Starting to look and feel like November again.

    • Anonymous says:

      At the risk that this may not get posted, I feel deeply compelled to submit anyhow:
      Wow! Where to begin? Although this is a weather forum, you’ve chosen to post a highly callous and offensive political statement that cannot go unaddressed; and don’t minimize it as just a ‘general’ statement. As with almost all ‘city dwellers’ (although because I’m white you probably were’t referring to someone like me), I love, respect and cherish rural America AND I work hard for a living. What’s truly disgusting is that you look down upon and demonize the less fortunate among us. Maybe try redirecting your white rage upward towards the MNL Corporations that because of greed have stolen far more from us commoners than any assistance allocated to the poor for whom, with very, very few exceptions need it to get by in our world today. Shaming people for being poor is wrong, regardless of your political ideology. People with your mindset are the perfect tools for an authoritarian regime, like the one which just got elected to the Executive Branch of our Federal government. They attempt to divide us to conquer us so that they can maintain their tenuous sense of power. As referenced by other posters, we are as close to becoming Nazi Germany today as we’ve ever been in our history since that period of time and the type of mindset for which you choose to view the world is how it all starts. Some of the vital elements needed in political discourse for a healthy democracy that have been been missing from our society for quite some time now are civility, a mutual respect and tolerance for those that disagree with our POV and any sense of shame for which people should feel for the ugly vitriol that they spew on a daily basis. We are all in this together.

    • The idea that people should “enjoy” working for “next to nothing” as you put it, is THE fundamental problem with our culture. Thankfully as a rural Oregonian who works for a living – I played an active role in the fight for a higher minimum wage. I put in many hours of unpaid volunteer time, collecting signatures, holding public forums and appearing both in Salem and the local newspaper. I enjoyed doing it because of the many working families in my community who desperately need a hand up (not a hand out!).

    • Nathan Place says:

      Well good job on raising that minimum wage, hopefully you get 15 bucks to flip a burger. I understand what Jason was saying. And thank god it rained last night and kept the lowlife protesters away.

    • Maverick says:

      Weather: Good to know we will go to a normal pattern and get some well needed snow in the mountains.

      Politics: I am a native Oregonian. Been in the Portland area my whole life. All I can say is those low life, uneducated freeloaders are an embarrassment to this City and Country. America has spoken. We had Obama in office for 8 years and he did nothing but increase debt, increase health insurance and increase racial divide. Those that kept quiet during the polls are the same ones that don’t protest and it caught America off guard when the polls were wrong. Did you see us protesting Obama like this when he won, twice? All I can say is HA, and anyone freeloading, illegal, immoral, lazy American that has the ability to succeed should shut up and get a job.

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      What Eastern Oregon really needs is to expand it’s industry.

      Industrial Hemp:

      I petition the legalization of such crops on websites like change.org daily (they have a great app too). I’d agree, however that the rioting is entirely counter productive. The logic is not with those people. I hope everyone comes together soon so we can get things done. Best.

  26. WEATHERDAN says:

    Maybe some cool crisp Autumn weather around Thanksgiving. Sunny with highs 40-45. In the meantime a lot of sloppy rain. 59 today which felt cool but was still above normal. Peace.

  27. Timmy Supercell (Klamath Falls, OR) says:

    Average high for the first 10 days of November running +12.5 in Klamath Falls, with a Mean running +9.0!!

  28. Brian Schmit says:

    Sitting here this morning wondering if the period November 1 to November 10 was the warmest 10-day period in November ever recorded at PDX.

    The average High temp for that period was 64.5° with a mean 10-day temperature of 57.0° and included 4 record highs.

  29. WEATHERDAN says:

    How odd it is so warm and in only 6 weeks the days start to get longer. Time for a barbecue. I can use the constitution for a firestarter. Peace..

  30. W7ENK says:

    Just a heads up:

    If you’re anywhere in or near — or have to travel through Downtown Portland this afternoon, get out soon. Protests are planned again for today, and we’ve already received several security alerts urging us to get outta dodge ASAP.

    Nov. 10, 2016

    To: All employees and all contingent workers

    Security advisory: Nov. 10 protests may create Portland traffic problems.

    Security has been alerted about three separate, unpermitted protests scheduled for this evening in the Portland area.

    These events may cause traffic problems, road closures and delays to TriMet service, so take extra care during your evening commute:

    • 5 p.m., Pioneer Courthouse Square, downtown Portland
    • 6 p.m., Salmon Street Springs, downtown Portland
    • 8 p.m., Holiday Park Plaza, Northeast Portland

    As always, Corporate Security wants to remind you about the importance of staying alert. Remember to always carry your ID/access badge, and do not let strangers follow you into access-controlled spaces.

    If you notice suspicious activity or situations, report it immediately to Security.

    Questions or concerns? Speak with your manager (or delegate).

    From TriMet:

    <

    blockquote>
    Subject: Service Alert: With more protests planned this evening, expect delays and consider leaving Downtown Portland early

    All MAX lines and most bus lines will likely experience major delays this evening due to planned protests in Portland City Center, the Lloyd District and Mt. Tabor. Plan extra time and consider leaving Downtown Portland in advance of protests set for 5 p.m. at Pioneer Courthouse Square and Waterfront Park.

    The TriMet Ticket Office will close at 4:30 p.m. Some MAX stations and bus stops may close for safety reasons. Please check trimet.org/alerts before you go.

    Thanks for your patience and understanding.

  31. Those of you from Oregon and south Washington who are thinking of moving up here in the next 4 years should have no trouble at least adapting to the weather : While you’re getting like California, we are now more like Oregon used to be.:-)

  32. Longview 400 ft says:

    Amazing weather for various plants out in my yard. I mowed Tuesday afternoon and have flowers blooming, also other plants re sprouting as if it is late to mid March. It sounds like they are all going to get a wake up call in the middle of next week. Talk about nature playing a sick joke.

    I am looking forward to the colder weather, my plants not so much.

  33. W7ENK says:

    Honestly, while it’s been a nice reprieve from the overly-wet October we just endured, ~70-ish degree weather in November is a bit ridiculous for around here.

  34. Yesterday was record-warm 69 degrees in The Dalles, with beautiful Springvember sunshine!

  35. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    After the record rainfall last month, I imagine that this is a nice break for most. At least time to clear a few million leaves from gutters and yards!

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