Record Warm Start to November; But Cooler Ahead

November 9, 2016

9pm Wednesday…

The first 9 days of November 2016 have been the warm!  In fact it’s the warmest start to November we’ve ever seen in Portland.  We set a record high temperatures again today in Portland:

markwarm_portlandrecords_november

Yesterday (Election Day) was the warmest November day in 10 years here in Portland!  Back then (2006) we were going through a rainy/flooding event so we sure weren’t seeing all these sunny days!  Several other cities hit records today…

markrecordwarmnovembertemps

By the way, lost in all the election excitement yesterday was the record high temperature at Redmond.  They hit 75, which was the 2nd warmest November day on record.  Bellingham saw their all-time November high temperature set too, that was 73 degrees.

There is a very warm air mass over the western USA and it’ll remain parked overhead through Friday.  So the 65 and 64 degree records for PDX the next two days are threatened as well.

So when does it go back to normal?  Take a look at the 500mb height anomaly from the ECMWF ensemble forecast system for Monday (the 14th)

ecmwf_mon

You see the warm ridge over us about to get squished by an approaching upper-level trough.  Just two days later we finally get our first cool upper-level trough of the season.  Snow should fall all the way to Gov’t Camp the middle of next week.  This is Wednesday:

ecmwf_wed

Then another trough comes through late next week…here’s Sunday the 20th:

ecmwf_sun_20th

 

Jump ahead to two weeks ahead and it’s the same thing…lower than normal heights over us on Thanksgiving Day.

ecmwf_thanksgiving

Ouch…I’m doing a 10k Turkey Trot Thanksgiving morning in Reno….brrrr.  These maps do not depict an “arctic air” type setup with a big upper-level ridge out over the Pacific…more of a cool split-flow sort theme.  It’s definitely cooler than normal and will be a sharp change from the first half of the month.  Check out the ensemble chart from the same ECMWF run this morning

tseries_850t_000-360_portland

you can see from next Tuesday (the 15th) through the end of the run, 850mb temps (the temperature around 5,000′) are forecast to be at or below normal just about the entire time.  The average for this time of year is the green line.  Temperatures is in Celsius.  The pattern ahead is not excessively wet, but about what we would typically see in mid-November.

Enjoy the last of the warm weather the next few days!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen