Before We Look Ahead, A Look Back

Yesterday we had our annual Winter Weather Conference at OMSI.  I think it was the 24th year!  Wow, I’ve only missed one or two of those…I’m getting old.  It was great to meet a few of you there and each year it’s fun to reconnect with previous coworkers or old competitors too.

I don’t forecast, but do a weather recap of the past winter and any other big weather events through the year.  The entire presentation will be online, along with the others, within the next few days at the Oregon AMS website:  https://oregonams.wordpress.com/

Here are a few of the graphics I used Saturday…this should stimulate some discussion:

winter5

What a mild winter it was!  Interesting to note that it pretty much acted like an El Nino winter (very mild with most action early on).   It did so in the mountains too.  You want to stay up high in El Nino years and that was the case this past winter.  In fact no El Nino winter since 1970 has produced above normal snow at Government Camp!

winter7

Here in the valleys we had very little snow of course.  Officially 1.1″.  Just one brief snow storm on the Sunday after the New Year.  Plus a close call a few days before that:

winter4

One could argue we’re due for a bigger year…or maybe we have another 1 or 2 duds still ahead the next two winters.

winter2

Regardless, snow in Portland is more rare than it was back in the 1940s/50s/60s.  You older folks probably can concur.  This decade is averaging the lowest so far, but it would only take one big winter to make that up.  It was a very warm winter

winter6

It’s been 20+ years since we’ve had a winter with well below normal temps.  There have been a few slightly cool ones, but you can see the gradual warm up and (almost) loss of occasional cold winters.  Keep in mind that this is a collection of all climate sites in this zone, not just the 2 or 3 that would be influenced by urban heat island effects.  I received an email a few weeks ago, it was circulating around a skeptic email list.  It claimed our winters have been getting COLDER the past 10, 12, or 15 (not sure which) years.  Well, the data they showed didn’t include the past two winters.  That’s called cherry-picking.  I’ve seen people do that to support all sorts of causes.  It’s annoying.

winter1

Late winter and spring this year was very warm, contributing to snow melt in the mountains about a month early.  Note the thick blue line just dropping like a rock in late April and May, far faster than normal up at 5,400′.

There you go.  The weather remains quite mild for at least the next 7-10 days with plenty of rain still to go.  I don’t see a stormy pattern through at least the first couple of days in November, although models are hinting at a stronger Pacific jet stream heading toward us about that time.  We’ll see.

At some point this week I’ll post a few thoughts about the upcoming winter.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

60 Responses to Before We Look Ahead, A Look Back

  1. JohnD says:

    I never pull for early season low elevation winter weather. In those anomalous years, typically the winter prime time goes bust. Still, we are approaching the theoretical winter weather window so we’ll take what we can get!

    ALSO, while personally being a subscriber to “global warming”, it is interesting to me how we in our PNW marine climate seem to be getting more and more “Mediterranean like” while other climatic zones seem to be tending opposingly. I do (partly) get it about oscillation. Still interesting overall for sure!

  2. High Desert Mat says:

    Mark, I hope you didn’t forget about posting your thoughts on this upcoming winter.

  3. David in Corbett,

    Does this help you out? It’s a graph from Mark’s presentation from the Winter Weather Conference at OMSI. The east wind is one of my favorite things, so I always look forward to the late Fall and Winter months.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    As of noon 11.20 inches of rain this month. A new record. Old record was 11.17 in 1947. Should see at least 12 inches this month. That is more than 4 times normal. Glub glub glub. Peace.

    • JJ78259 says:

      That is a ton of rain!

    • W7ENK says:

      10.93″ at my place since October 1st. That’s as of last night, it doesn’t include the (probably) quarter inch that’s fallen today.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      ’bout the same here. October and November average in one month. So now we can all relax and wait for that first snowfall of December…. (next month)

  5. Actually, changes in solar output CAN NOT completely explain the warming observed in the last century or so.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11650-climate-myths-global-warming-is-down-to-the-sun-not-humans/

    It’s been well-known that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas ever John Tyndall discovered it is basically opaque to infrared radiation in the 19th century.

    • W7ENK says:

      You do realize that water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, right?

      And you also realize that water vapor is the most dominant greenhouse gas in Earth’s atmosphere, right?? It accounts for more than 60% of the observed warming over the last century, with almost 8 times the absorption rate of CO2.

      And you ALSO also realize that water vapor does not control the Earth’s temperature, but is instead controlled BY the temperature, right??? This is because the temperature of the surrounding atmosphere limits the maximum amount of water vapor the atmosphere can contain. If a volume of air contains its maximum amount of water vapor (100% saturation) and the temperature is decreased, some of the water vapor will condense to form liquid water (clouds), and will eventually precipitate out.

      The leading theory among scientists who share this line of scientific thinking is that an increase in temperatures (yes, primarily due to an increase in non-condensable greenhouse gases, i.e: CO2, CH4, N2O, and O3, as well as chlorine- and fluorine-containing solvents and refrigerants) is causing an increase in water vapor in Earth’s atmosphere. This will lead to an increase in worldwide cloud cover, which will reflect more solar energy (particularly IR) away from the surface, which will ultimately lead to a cooling cycle (Ice Age), and thus a reduction in water vapor. The unfortunate side effect of this is that these other, non-condensable greenhouse gases get scrubbed from the atmosphere through this process and end up in our oceans, altering the pH of the water, resulting in ocean acidification.

      This is all stuff that global warming “alarmists” are either unaware of due to the shortsightedness of their argument, cherry pick from in order to bolster their position, or they just flat ignore because of its inconvenience to their agenda.

    • Scooter says:

      Me thinks the “W” guy protests too much. If he really knew his science like he pretends to, he wouldn’t be on this blog presenting his “Cherry picked um…….? You do realize that:

      Stages of Denial
      There’s nothing happening
      Inadequate evidence
      There is no evidence
      One record year is not global warming
      The temperature record is simply unreliable
      One hundred years is not enough
      Glaciers have always grown and receded
      Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
      Mauna Loa is a volcano
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      Contradictory evidence
      It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      Antarctic ice is growing
      The satellites show cooling
      What about mid-century cooling?
      Global warming stopped in 1998
      But the glaciers are not melting
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      Sea level in the Arctic is falling
      Some sites show cooling
      No consensus
      Global warming is a hoax
      There is no consensus
      Position statements hide debate
      Consensus is collusion
      Peiser refuted Oreskes
      We don’t know why it’s happening
      Models don’t work
      We cannot trust unproven computer models
      The models don’t have clouds
      If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      Prediction is impossible
      We can’t even predict the weather next week
      Chaotic systems are not predictable
      We can’t be sure
      Hansen has been wrong before
      If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      Climate change is natural
      It happened before
      It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      Greenland used to be green
      Global warming is nothing new!
      The hockey stick is broken
      Vineland was full of grapes
      It’s part of a natural change
      Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
      Mars and Pluto are warming too
      CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
      Climate is always changing
      Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      The CO2 rise is natural
      We are just recovering from the LIA
      It’s not caused by CO2
      Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      Mars and Pluto are warming too
      CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      What about mid-century cooling?
      Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
      Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      It’s the sun, stupid
      Climate change is not bad
      The effects are good
      What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      Climate change can’t be stopped
      Too late
      Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      It’s someone else’s problem
      Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
      The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
      Economically infeasible
      Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
      Scientific Topics
      Temperature
      There is no evidence
      The temperature record is simply unreliable
      One hundred years is not enough
      Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
      What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
      The satellites show cooling
      Global warming stopped in 1998
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      One record year is not global warming
      Some sites show cooling
      Cryosphere
      Glaciers
      Glaciers have always grown and receded
      But the glaciers are not melting
      Sea ice
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      Ice sheets
      Antarctic ice is growing
      Greenland used to be green
      Oceans
      Sea level in the Arctic is falling
      Modeling
      Scenarios
      Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      Hansen has been wrong before
      Uncertainties
      We can’t even predict the weather next week
      Chaotic systems are not predictable
      We cannot trust unproven computer models
      The models don’t have clouds
      Climate forcings
      Solar influences
      Mars and Pluto are warming too
      It’s the sun, stupid
      Greenhouse gases
      Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      What about mid-century cooling?
      Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
      Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      Mauna Loa is a volcano
      The CO2 rise is natural
      Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      The US is a net CO2 sink
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      Aerosols
      What about mid-century cooling?
      If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
      Paleo climate
      Holocene
      It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      Greenland used to be green
      The hockey stick is broken
      Vineland was full of grapes
      We are just recovering from the LIA
      Ice ages
      CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      Global warming is nothing new!
      Geologic history
      What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
      Climate is always changing
      Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      Scientific process
      Global warming is a hoax
      There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      There is no consensus
      The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
      Position statements hide debate
      If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      Consensus is collusion
      Peiser refuted Oreskes
      Types of Argument
      Uninformed
      There is no evidence
      One record year is not global warming
      One hundred years is not enough
      There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
      There is no consensus
      We cannot trust unproven computer models
      Misinformed
      It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      Antarctic ice is growing
      CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      Greenland used to be green
      The satellites show cooling
      Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      It’s the sun, stupid
      The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
      But the glaciers are not melting
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      Vineland was full of grapes
      Cherry Picking
      It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      Antarctic sea ice is growing
      The satellites show cooling
      Global warming stopped in 1998
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      Vineland was full of grapes
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      The sea level in the Arctic is falling
      Some sites show cooling
      Urban Myths
      The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      Greenland used to be green
      Hansen has been wrong before
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      Vineland was full of grapes
      FUD
      The temperature record is simply unreliable
      Glaciers have always grown and receded
      Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
      Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      Mars and Pluto are warming too
      It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      There is no consensus
      Antarctic ice is growing
      Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
      We can’t even predict the weather next week
      Chaotic systems are not predictable
      What about mid-century cooling?
      The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
      Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
      Climate is always changing
      Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      Mauna Loa is a volcano
      Global warming is nothing new!
      The CO2 rise is natural
      The hockey stick is broken
      Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      The models don’t have clouds
      Global warming stopped in 1998
      If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      Peiser refuted Oreskes
      Vineland was full of grapes
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      Sea level in the Arctic is falling
      We are just recovering from the LIA
      Non Scientific
      Global warming is a hoax
      Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
      Hansen has been wrong before
      Position statements hide debate
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      Consensus is collusion
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      Levels of Sophistication
      Silly
      There is no evidence
      Global warming is a hoax
      One record year is not global warming
      Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
      Mars and Pluto are warming too
      Mauna Loa is a volcano
      Naive
      One hundred years is not enough
      Glaciers have always grown and receded
      Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
      It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      We can’t even predict the weather next week
      We can not trust unproven computer models
      The satellites show cooling
      Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      The models don’t have clouds
      Global warming stopped in 1998
      It’s the sun, stupid
      If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      The scientists aren’t even sure
      Vineland was full of grapes
      Some sites show cooling
      Specious
      The temperature record is simply unreliable
      Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
      It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      There is no consensus
      Antarctic ice is growing
      Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
      Greenland used to be green
      What about mid-century cooling?
      The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
      Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
      Climate is always changing
      Global warming is nothing new!
      The CO2 rise is natural
      Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      Hansen has been wrong before
      Position statements hide debate
      But the glaciers are not melting
      If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
      Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      Consensus is collusion
      They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
      Peiser refuted Oreskes
      Vineland was full of grapes
      Scientific
      Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      Chaotic systems are not predictable
      The hockey stick is broken
      Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      Sea level in the Arctic is falling
      We are just recovering from the LIA

    • Chris s says:

      Nice spam job scooter… Lol hop back in your liberal hole with your Hollywood heroes, although kudos for copying and pasting that heaping pile of poo into the blog!! Lol 😂😂

    • Of course. It’s why clear, dry airmasses tend to have the greatest temperature swings. But water vapor is mostly a dependent variable; it changes in response to how warm things are (warmer air can hold more water vapor). In fact, that positive feedback the reason it’s difficult to tell — beyond the basic fact that there will be some warming — exactly how much warming a given increase of CO2 will be responsible for.

      Methane is also a dependent variable; there’s lots of it sequestered as methane clathrates in the Arctic which could be liberated if that region warms. Most models haven’t taken that into account, meaning that we could be even closer to a drastic tipping point than we know.

      And none of this changes the basic fact that solar output alone cannot account for recent temperature increases.

    • W7ENK says:

      WOW! Look at you, Skootie!! You know how to copy/paste from the interwebz!!!

      Congratulations.

      Now, I have some homework for you, when you have a spare 3 hours. Watch the video of this conference:

      Three well-known local climatologists presenting not just the “Science!™”, but the hard-core nitty-gritty mathematics, chemistry and physics behind it all. Pay particularly close attention to the second presentation by Chuck Wiese – Meteorologist and Climatologist.

      You can take a closer look at his presentation materials here:
      http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/oregon/Minutes/2012/2012_1_25_Meeting/2012_1_25_Presentations/2012_1_25_ChuckWiese.pdf

      This conference is where I was introduced to these concepts, which piqued my curiosity and inspired me to delve deeper into and research this stuff for myself. If you want to knock that and call it “cherry picking,” that’s fine, but with my fairly sound knowledge and better-than rudimentary understanding of these three scientific disciplines, it only makes you look a fool, a clueless keyboard warrior.

      We can discuss further after you’ve taken the time to educate yourself with all 2-3/4 hours of this video. I expect a full summary and a bullet-pointed outline, with any questions you may have listed at the end. Dr. Wiese occasionally browses this blog, I’m sure he’d be happy to fill you in on any of the details you’re unable to wrap your head around.

      ‘Kay thx bye.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Scootie,

      Methinks quantity does not equal quality – unless that’s all you got…

  6. Another wet one for me. 1.10″ in the gauge so far today. I really wish I had been here all month and keeping tally; I must be getting close to the 10-inch mark for this month.

    • Prairiedog says:

      And of course smoking doesn’t cause cancer the day after you smoke. The body has a way of healing itself for a while, then you hit a threshold. I don’t see our atmosphere being so unlike the human body in that respect. It will cover or mask the results of pollutants for a while. With billions of people contributing to pollution. . . . When you look at pictures of Earth from space, the atmospheric layer just isn’t that thick. Can’t imagine it keeping up and covering up forever. Simplistic overview but sometimes that trumps overthinking things.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Yo, Dog,

      If your inability to comment on the appropriate post is an indication, your comment’s “substance” (if any) is suspect.

  7. I compiled a list of my top 10 warmest winters for the past 41 years(based on December to February mean temperatures). The last winter (2015-16) ranks as No.7. What was intresting is that the top 2 warmest winters (2014-15 and 1980-81) both were non-El Nino. Although the rest of the list (except for 1976-77) were.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Roland you are right on the money El Niño played a huge role in the warmth the last two winters. The oppisite happened in Texas we were much Wetter and Colder than average. That helped us out of the 4 year drought with record setting floods and storms. The fronts are now back where their supposed to be out of a super strong El Niño back keeping Oregon green and Texas dry. We did have cooler summers during the El Niño. My best recollection of 2001 to 2012 years in Oregon was the constant fall winter rain with more rain in the spring. So what you are seeing now is normal Oregon weather. Nothing wrong with that!

    • Thanks, JJ- although if you read my comment, I actually stated 2014-15 was a ‘non-El nino ‘ winter. However, if I’m misinformed, I’ll gladly accept the correction- I’m no expert in this area.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Roland yes I do understand what you said but the weather pattern actually acted like El Niño was in place 2014 2015 here in San Antonio for some reason maybe the blob and blocking ridge helped that pattern.

    • Thanks for the reply, JJ. Yes, I thought like the 2014-15 winter was el Nino -like myself, even though everyone said it wasn’t. Similarly the 1976-77 winter. It’s rather confusing1 🙂

    • Oh man, I can’t believe how badly I wrote that last comment- it’s as if I was 13 again! That’ll teach me to slow down!!

  8. JohnD says:

    It seems like the overall AMS meeting consensus is that conditions may be generally favorable for low elevation snow a time or three this winter. I know Mark is usually fairly non committal in his long range views. Looking forward to whatever/how much he decides to render!

  9. Anonymous says:

    There is always fluctuation in Nature. If not then animals and plants would not evolve and change over millennia. The fact is Earth’s climate has always changed. There is so many dynamics at play. The global warming crowd has an easy politically and financially tainted answer. But the truth is in an instant there could be an “event” that changes everything. To think that we can control what is gonna happen by reducing carbon releases is ludicrous. The Sun and its cycles plays more of a role than 1 million factories and 2 billion cars ever will!

    • Scooter says:

      Oh boy, another great example of “Extreme Fuzzy Logic”, your children will resent the world you leave them. It is amazing that you have more wisdom, knowledge and credentials than the vast array of dedicated and educated scientists that agree on man made climate change. Don’t that Trump all! Good Day.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      The sun and its cycles and cycles beyond the sun must have a big role in climate variablity. But the massive addition of greenhouse gases and global deforestation that has occurred by us humans during the last century is no doubt adding fuel to the fire. Its measurable. Its observable. And that’s what science does.

  10. JJ78259 says:

    Starting to get second season tomatoes its been a great fall so far. The fruit trees in the back yard are all producing Lemon Lime Grapefruit and tangerine are all ready! 85 Degrees for Halloween weekend😎

    • Eugene Dave says:

      Nobody here gives a crap about the weather in southern Texas.

    • JohnD says:

      Thanks. A lot of us do enjoy hearing first hand accounts about other climatic regions–and also appreciative of those–as yourself–who also follow ours.

    • W7ENK says:

      I do, especially since JJ used to be a fellow Dome dweller.

      People need to get over themselves.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Thanks fellow Dome Dweller. When I was living in Milwaukie this would be the time I would get my wood stove cooking. Looks like 60 degrees will gone shortly. we have another week of Weather Dan Weather before we head into the upper 70s. I always enjoyed the 80 degree family room heat from the wood stove in the fall!

  11. High Desert Mat says:

    Um, on your page Mark, kgw has the pumpkin on Tuesday next week. Someone ought to let them know. Sheesh

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    I’m going to Maui in mid-January. Record cold attic weather here in January, it happened in Jan. 2011 when I went last time. Came back home to 3″ of snow and temps in the teens when we got back home in the evening. Bound to happen again and we are due for a cold January snow event.

  13. Ellen Wallace says:

    Looked over the patterns – do we get d or C this year? I wish I had been there. I would like to hear thoughts on Volcanoes on the weather here. Thanks!

  14. For me, the last truly “cold’ winter was 1992-93. That was the last time (I think) that our city officially allowed outdoor skating on the ponds and Lost Lagoon in Stanley Park. No winter since then has had long enough of a cold spell for that to happen. Winter 2008-09 had more snow, but not the persistent freezing temperatures.

    • Scooter says:

      That was a cold one down here in Clackamas County, I had diesel fuel in cans out in the storage shed and the fuel jelled!

  15. David in Corbett says:

    Hi Mark,
    I love reading your blog. I also live in Corbett and I was wondering if there are any statistics on how often the cold east wind blows each winter? This is the weather event that literally keeps me up at night.
    Thank you.

    • Does this help you out? It’s a graph from Mark’s presentation from the Winter Weather Conference at OMSI. The east wind is one of my favorite things, so I always look forward to the late Fall and Winter months.

  16. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Wow! Incredible double rainbow currently visible over the metro area.

  17. JJ78259 says:

    Nice looking storm on the radar shot headed in!

  18. Paul D says:

    The global warming folks thank you for the ammunition to support their opinion 🙂

    • Nathan Place says:

      Book it, if we want snow head to the mountains where it belongs!!!

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      The declining average snowfall since the 1800’s says it all. Things had to warm slightly over that span to start turning borderline snow events into just more cold rain. Especially with the classic gulf of Alaska flow pattern. Overall, cold air masses from Canada just aren’t packing the same punch as they once did. It hurts to even talk about it 😦

    • Peter says:

      Also warmer on Mars, Mercury and Venus, and we are not that ere… but the sun is effecting it all in a massive way… More ice and pack ice in Antarctica…

      My poin? We can cherry pick all day long. In 50 years we’ll likely see another cooling trend and science will be back to telling us (like I was taught was taught in he 70’s), that man is causing an ice age not a heat wave, and the cycle continues.

      I’ve been around quite a while, and the end game always seems to be that government needs to step in and regulate and control businesses, make more policies, and re-elect me and I’ll stop the oceans from rising (or falling), etc…

      I’ve become a cynic on this topic because there is so much game play going on. But I do love the weather and am grateful Mark doesn’t promote politics, but promotes weather.

      Thanks Mark.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      It HAS warmed. Alaska is seeing dramatic decreases in permafrost. The Arctic ice pack is trending much lower. Whether AGW or just a natural cycle (or a combination) the climate is warming and most dramatically observed in the northern regions.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

    • JohnD says:

      Still such incredible issues to ponder–“whys and wherefores”. I am a lifelong Oregonian savoring–and lamenting–winters past; my wife iis a native of Massachusetts where–ironically even for their climate, they have experienced some hugely heavy hitting winters in recent years! So what gives!?…

    • Scooter says:

      Not an opinion, proven fact it is. Except for those few in denial.

    • Scooter says:

      You can deny all you want, but you can’t deny the facts:

      The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we’ve reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

    • W7ENK says:

      Peter is correct. Warming has been observed on Mars, Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn’s moon Triton — all at a rate that is concurrent with the warming observed here on Earth. This points to some form of external influence, most likely minute, (and probably cyclical) energy fluctuations in the Sun. These fluctuations can be seen in records of Solar irradiance going back more than 120 years.

      At the same time, while glaciers, snow pack and sea ice extent have been declining in the Northern Hemisphere, they’ve been increasing in the Southern Hemisphere — again, at the same rate — which results in a net-zero on a global scale. Nothing gained, nothing lost. This, based on NSIDC satellite measurements taken since 1979.

      As inconvenient as this may be, these are also facts.

  19. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    This morning must be a record warm low temp for the date. 58 at my place right now.

  20. sds says:

    Mark
    You noticed after a warm spring, the summer was fairly cool and the snowpack on Palmer held up all summer.

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