The timing for the windstorm along the coast and (relatively) minor windstorm in the valleys is on track. The low pressure center appears to be out there west of Tillamook still deepening and headed north quickly. This analysis by the HRRR model puts it around 974mb. Generally with these storms the surge of south wind arrives about when the low crosses your latitude. Basically as it “goes by” to your west the wind arrives.
We could have REALLY used an Oregon Coastal Radar this morning to figure out exactly where the low was! There is no coverage off the central Oregon coastline…the only part of the USA coastline left “radarless”. But that’s a political, not NWS solution = lots of $$$. Hard to believe NOAA has a major facility in Newport and they don’t even have radar coverage.
I’m tracking wind the old-fashioned way here in the weather center:
So far the wind is underachieving on the coast. At 1pm gusts have barely reached 60 mph on the central coast. A gust to 58 at Newport. If it doesn’t bump up dramatically in the next hour, it’s possible the low is just far enough offshore (it’s quite a compact storm) that the huge wind stays just offshore…we’ll see.
Our forecast is for gusts 70-90mph still so we’ll see how that works out.
Inland the south wind has been blowing for a few hours in the valley with gusts into the low 40s at Eugene and Salem. That tells me gusts 40+ are looking likely in the metro area in the next 3 hours. We are closer to the low center as it moves north and the pressure gradient is tighter up here. Still expecting widespread gusts 40-50 mph metro area between now and 4pm. Expect lots of outages and trees down.
And one last time…
There is not a “severe” windstorm coming to the metro area and also not Columbus Day Storm II. But a very windy afternoon!
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen