1pm Storm Update

The timing for the windstorm along the coast and (relatively) minor windstorm in the valleys is on track.  The low pressure center appears to be out there west of Tillamook still deepening and headed north quickly.  This analysis by the HRRR model puts it around 974mb.  Generally with these storms the surge of south wind arrives about when the low crosses your latitude.  Basically as it “goes by” to your west the wind arrives.lowpressure_1pm


We could have REALLY used an Oregon Coastal Radar this morning to figure out exactly where the low was!  There is no coverage off the central Oregon coastline…the only part of the USA coastline left “radarless”.  But that’s a political, not NWS solution = lots of $$$.  Hard to believe NOAA has a major facility in Newport and they don’t even have radar coverage.


I’m tracking wind the old-fashioned way here in the weather center:


So far the wind is underachieving on the coast.  At 1pm gusts have barely reached 60 mph on the central coast.  A gust to 58 at Newport.  If it doesn’t bump up dramatically in the next hour, it’s possible the low is just far enough offshore (it’s quite a compact storm) that the huge wind stays just offshore…we’ll see.

Our forecast is for gusts 70-90mph still so we’ll see how that works out.

Inland the south wind has been blowing for a few hours in the valley with gusts into the low 40s at Eugene and Salem.  That tells me gusts 40+ are looking likely in the metro area in the next 3 hours.  We are closer to the low center as it moves north and the pressure gradient is tighter up here.  Still expecting widespread gusts 40-50 mph metro area between now and 4pm.  Expect lots of outages and trees down.

And one last time…

There is not a “severe” windstorm coming to the metro area and also not Columbus Day Storm II.   But a very windy afternoon!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

26 Responses to 1pm Storm Update

  1. Lheidenreich says:

    so why the big hype again another false alarm hate to see what will happen if we ever do get another 1962 storm people just don’t get worked up about it cause it never happens that’s a good thing for sure but that’s the problem is I think people won’t be prepared

  2. oldwxwatcher says:

    28 mph gust has been the highest so far for me here in E. Portland. Winds seem to be easing off now.

    What stood out for me with the Columbus Day Storm as compared with all the other windstorms I experienced, including today’s, was that many of the very high gusts in that storm were unusually sustained. Some of them lasted more than 10-15 seconds, which helped contribute to the already high damage levels. It was frightening to experience because they seemed to go on and on and you wondered if they ever would quit.

  3. After a rainy morning and a quiet early afternoon, the wind is finally starting to whoop up this way. 988 mbar and still falling.


    in washington state a mild wind not hard will it hit here

  5. vernonia1 says:

    from a friend…Street lights already out in hillsboro goin east on baseline half way..the storm gonna be tearin shit up yeah baby!!

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      In the middle of Pulp Fiction here, just leave power on a little bit longer bitches….

  6. Amber says:

    2:30- intense gusts up here at Mt Tabor, power out on my block, between SE 38th and 39th on Clinton and traffic light out on SE 39th/Cesar Chavez & Clinton

  7. High Desert Mat says:

    Just got really windy over here in Redmond. Blustery conditions and the siding on my house just came off. Grrrr

  8. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Thursday’s was definitely way better, at least up here.

  9. Robert Brown says:

    Not to make this a political argument (blame easily lies with both parties), but you’d think that somewhere in the TRILLIONS of debt we have, part of that would have been for the necessary radar equipment!

  10. Scooter says:

    For the young fellow over in Gladstone, the purpose of the NWS and our local meteorologists is to give us warnings of the possibility of destructive or dangerous weather events that might or might not occur so we can be prepared and aware of such impending events that might impact property or life.

  11. Amie says:

    I want to know how this will effect us more here in roseburg! I know we’re a smaller community and we don’t get mentioned in the weather forecast enough.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      … Wind Advisory remains in effect from 8 am this morning to 8 PM
      PDT this evening…

      winds… southeast through southwest 25 to 30 mph with gusts 45
      Timing… winds will increase from mid morning today… reaching a
      peak early this afternoon and continuing into early this evening.

  12. Karrie Lamb says:

    Independence Oregon. Has very very windy gusts, rain, blowing debris around on the roads.

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    Have some power lines down in my neighborhood. Lots of big tree limbs down as well. Thank goodness the storm was not worse. Just about what Mark had been calling for. Peace.

  14. Jim Dillard says:

    So this means we are not going to have a big wind storm.

  15. Josh "The Snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    Looking like another bust by Mark and his crew. I thought you were the best in town. Getting senile? Missed on the tornadoes and missed this one big time. Quit model riding and be better than us blog people. Sheesh.

  16. GTS1K' says:

    So far this storm blows…

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