Thursday Storm Update

9pm Wednesday…

Playing catch up a bit this evening since I had half a day off for my son’s 16th birthday.  But in full storm mode now!

For those of you that just want the basics:

HIGHLIGHTS FOR STORM #1

  • Rain is beginning now, and we have a good 1.50″ coming up in the next 24 hours…get ready for localized flooding (not creeks or rivers) where drains clog up with leaves.
  • But we do not expect river flooding at this time, at least in the next two days.
  • HIGH WIND WARNING COAST/COAST RANGE: South wind gusts reach 65-80 mph along the coastline 4pm-10pm tomorrow.  Unusually strong for October.
  • South wind gusts 40-50 mph in the metro area 4pm-10pm tomorrow.  Not especially strong, but that’s a lot for October.  Leaves on trees mean more trees break/fall.
  • Expect power outages scattered about in the evening.  We saw these speeds two years ago in the metro area in late October and had something like 50,000 outages!
  • The wind remains breezy through much of Friday too…gusts 30-35 mph inland

By the way, WE DO NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE COLUMBUS DAY STORM for Saturday at this point.  I saw a Facebook posting with that info and had an email about it today I figure I should squash that rumor right away!

markwarnings_wind_coast_valleys

 

markwarnings_wind_coast_valleys2

 

Let’s not forget the rain:

rpm_rain_nworegon

 

Often our RPM model overdoes the rain, but I think 2-3″ is a safe bet from now through late Saturday.  That is not enough for widespread river flooding, especially since we’re just now getting into the wet season.  I’m sure we will get a river flood warning somewhere (likely along the coast), but for now I think WIND is the big story the next 3 days.

WIND:

This first storm is a surface low pressure system tracking offshore during the 2nd half of Thursday.  By late tomorrow evening it likely ends up as a 980mb low pressure center near the NW tip of Washington as seen in this evening’s GFS model:

gfs_10pmthurspm

A 980 millibar low moving relatively far offshore and ending up well north of us is not a HUGE wind producer inland typically.  Hopefully we don’t get a surprise.  Nevertheless for October this is quite a start to the stormy season.

Friday will be the in-between day, by that I mean we’ll be between the Thursday night storm and Saturday’s monster storm.  More on that either later (when I get time) or for sure tomorrow morning.  I’ve got a 10pm show to get ready for.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

7 Responses to Thursday Storm Update

  1. 00z ECMWF very dangerous wind storm
    970mb low landfall Astoria
    Face value, up to 60-80kt gusts for Salem, PDX, Vancouver metro
    The frame before this one shows the gusts bit further south, so if you extrapolate things, yeah it’s real bad. Is the ECMWF locked in? You have to wonder.

  2. RipCity22 says:

    Thank you Mark. Excellent update. This is why I come here.

  3. Thanks, Mark.

    A few important details on the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, GEM/CMC tonight. This is ONLY for Saturday’s storm.

    00z GFS this run was actually the closest to the ECMWF yet for a dangerous wind storm on Saturday evening/night. Post tropical Songda was handled nearly identical to the ECMWF from 160 to 140 W weakening it to just a strong wave briefly. The issue here is the low developed exploding a tad sooner near 135 W, thus it curved north a bit sooner. This is a common solution we see and it’s why we often “dodge the bullet” of a big, destructive wind storm. The trend however of weakening the wave as it moves across the Pacific continues and that is what the ECMWF shows. Bares watching.

    Now the 00z GEM/CMC has heavily trended towards the ECMWF as has the NAM.

    Onto 00z ECMWF!!!

  4. Lurkyloo says:

    Happy birthday to your son! Today’s my birthday as well, except I didn’t get to turn 16 again. But I made it to 50! WooHoo!!

  5. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    As I recall, the Columbus Day storm somehow tapped into the remnants of Typhoon Freda. Not trying to get make a connection to the current pattern but…….RUN YOU FOOLS! RUN!

  6. Roman~Snow-Zone-Monmouth, Elv. 223' says:

    Yes thanks for the update looking forward to the storms, tis the season.

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