Playing catch up a bit this evening since I had half a day off for my son’s 16th birthday. But in full storm mode now!
For those of you that just want the basics:
HIGHLIGHTS FOR STORM #1
- Rain is beginning now, and we have a good 1.50″ coming up in the next 24 hours…get ready for localized flooding (not creeks or rivers) where drains clog up with leaves.
- But we do not expect river flooding at this time, at least in the next two days.
- HIGH WIND WARNING COAST/COAST RANGE: South wind gusts reach 65-80 mph along the coastline 4pm-10pm tomorrow. Unusually strong for October.
- South wind gusts 40-50 mph in the metro area 4pm-10pm tomorrow. Not especially strong, but that’s a lot for October. Leaves on trees mean more trees break/fall.
- Expect power outages scattered about in the evening. We saw these speeds two years ago in the metro area in late October and had something like 50,000 outages!
- The wind remains breezy through much of Friday too…gusts 30-35 mph inland
By the way, WE DO NOT SEE A REPEAT OF THE COLUMBUS DAY STORM for Saturday at this point. I saw a Facebook posting with that info and had an email about it today I figure I should squash that rumor right away!
Let’s not forget the rain:
Often our RPM model overdoes the rain, but I think 2-3″ is a safe bet from now through late Saturday. That is not enough for widespread river flooding, especially since we’re just now getting into the wet season. I’m sure we will get a river flood warning somewhere (likely along the coast), but for now I think WIND is the big story the next 3 days.
This first storm is a surface low pressure system tracking offshore during the 2nd half of Thursday. By late tomorrow evening it likely ends up as a 980mb low pressure center near the NW tip of Washington as seen in this evening’s GFS model:
A 980 millibar low moving relatively far offshore and ending up well north of us is not a HUGE wind producer inland typically. Hopefully we don’t get a surprise. Nevertheless for October this is quite a start to the stormy season.
Friday will be the in-between day, by that I mean we’ll be between the Thursday night storm and Saturday’s monster storm. More on that either later (when I get time) or for sure tomorrow morning. I’ve got a 10pm show to get ready for.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen