Midnight Special: Saturday Storm Looking Stronger!

11:50pm Wednesday…

If you are looking for info about Storm #1 coming Thursday evening, read the previous post down below.  This post refers to Storm #2 for Saturday…

Quick update…finally got a chance to look at all evening models.  A few thoughts:

  • The evening ECMWF run is now the 3rd in a row to bring a severe windstorm to the I-5 corridor Saturday afternoon/evening
  • The NAM model has now joined it, and the GEM (Canadian) is moving the low much closer to us as well.
  • Only the GFS is stubbornly hanging on to a position farther offshore.

That means 3 out of 4 major models are producing either a significant or (in the case of the ECMWF & NAM models) severe windstorm for the populated areas between the Coast and Cascade ranges.  That includes the Portland Metro Area.  By “severe” I mean the strongest storm we’ve seen since the December 1995 event for many of us.

Here is a comparison of those 4 models at either 5pm or 10pm Saturday evening.  Notice how the low is much closer to us except for the GFS

As a result the threat for a significant windstorm for all areas west of the Cascades is higher now than it was 24 hours ago.

IF it does appear in the next 48 hours that a big storm is coming, you will have Friday to prep for it…just lots of showers and regular breezy conditions.  I’ll keep you updated!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to Midnight Special: Saturday Storm Looking Stronger!

  1. DEL X V says:

    4.8 inches of rain last 14 hours 6 miles from Tillamook Bay.

  2. W7ENK says:

    UPGRADE:

    HIGH WIND WATCH
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    249 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=6697540

    • WINDS: SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH…BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. FEW LOCATIONS ON HIGHER HILLS MAY SEE FEW GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

    • TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS: 5 PM TO 9 PM.

    • OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY: POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH.

  3. W7ENK says:

    Cliff Mass has some good, detailed insight. Of course Saturday’s storm will be stronger to our North.

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/storm-update_13.html

    • W7ENK says:

      This gradient profile, specifically…

      What is that, 14mb between Olympia and Bellingham? They’ll be picking pieces of Seattle off their lawns up in Vancouver BC!!

  4. Dave_in_Troutdale says:

    I just hope it doesn’t blow the majority of my latest medical marijuana away. That could be the end of me! Maybe living in the Gorge will be ironic? In a way that it actually sheltered me from the wind??? Anyone…

  5. Brian Schmit says:

    Very active and funny facebook group containing local weather geeks who love to discuss weather. Click below link if interested in joining. Over 920 people in this group as of now……

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/PortlandWeatherUncensored/

  6. Not all that bad overnight here; The rain started after 9pm and was very light til about 3am. Much of that was probably due to a dry NE wind off the land. Rain and winds picked up after that, but I only received 0.71 inches up to 11am. Maybe round 2 will see more action.

  7. W7ENK says:

    Frankie’s on it, so it’s pretty much in the bag…

    BE PREPARED!!!

  8. W7ENK says:

    WIND ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    828 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=6690160

    • WINDS: SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH…BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH… WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH. FEW LOCATIONS ON HIGHER HILLS MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

    • TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS: 4 PM TO 9 PM.

  9. Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

    Oh sure. I’m on the way to Walla Walla for all this excitement.

  10. DCZ - Hillsboro says:

    Hi Mark,

    By leaving the rain off the 7day graphic and just saying “stormy” implies wind without rain. Since a lot of rain is expected, maybe consider putting rain back on the graphic?

    Honestly, until I read the blog this morning, I thought you were backing off the rain forecast and predicting just winds.

    Thank you.

  11. GTS1K' says:

    Just remember, the models giveth – and the models…….

    …you know.

  12. And I’m back from my road trip just in time for a potentially epic PNW windstorm. Saw snow fall three times (twice in Wyoming, once in Montana) but no more than a light dusting.

    Previous storms had blasted the aspens and maples mostly clear of their epic fall color in the Logan, UT area (not a famous area for fall color but arguably some of the best in the nation, but alas it’s always a really short show). The drive through Montana somewhat made up for that, with valley cottonwoods and mountain larches putting on a show.

  13. Jason Hougak says:

    I believe we are going to get hammered on Saturday and have been prepared. Cleaned the gutters. Got the generator and chainsaw ready. It’s about time for some weather action. All of the rain is great but the wind element will really cause some problems I’m sure. Welcome back Rob👍🏼 👍🏼

    • JJ78259 says:

      When I lived in Milwaukie I used a Gas Powered blower to clean the Gutters worked great even in heavy rain. I did it before and after every storm I had big birch trees. It was a constant fall activity. Nothing like clean gutters!

    • GTS1K' says:

      JJ,

      Great idea – just wish you’d posted it a couple of days ago. Ain’t going up 2 storys on a ladder in this weather totin’ a leaf blower.

      Maybe next week…

  14. SortingHat says:

    Good posts Rob. Thought you were banned? ???????? Glad to see you back either way!

  15. muxpux (Longview) says:

    Just FYI, I’m relating this info to my bosses. We work Saturdays “to stay ahead of demand”. So, the last 2 months or so. Been there about 9 months and never worked a Saturday. Anyways. My shift is 2:30pm-11pm and in woodland. I live in castle rock. I really don’t feel this storm is worth going to work, and getting stuck 30 miles from home when it could be avoided. Am I just panicking or is this something that needs to be addressed now as a “if you don’t need to be out don’t be” kind of things? I know I won’t be comfortable on I-5 if the winds are above 40. Especially with the leaves. It was bad the other night in 30mph.
    Is this worth the worry?

  16. A few more thoughts

    Today’s storm potential
    Gusts 35-45mph perhaps 50mph is what is forecast
    However, I think this needs to be watched as the low will be deepening moving northeast/north off the Coast and has very good left exit jet support of 150-170mph.

    This upper level jet support is aligned with the track of the low, which can cause the low to deepen more than modeled as well as lead to get good mixing of the winds aloft towards the surface. The December 2014 wind storm has similarities to this. It is something to keep an eye on today.

    6z NAM 4km was very impressive showing 964mb landfall southern Vancouver Island. Simulated IR looks potent.

    Wind storm anyone?

  17. Diana F. says:

    Love being a weather geek! 💨
    Thank you Mark, for the late night report. Very much appreciated. Oh and Happy Birthday to the little one. 🙃They sure grow up fast.

  18. Matt (Vancouver 98683 @150ft) says:

    Choo choo! Train coming through!

  19. Thanks for the unusually rare late night update. I think like yourself we were all expecting the ECMWF tonight to back off and save us from a destructive wind storm. I guess not.

    We’re aren’t there just yet, but we are starting to run out of time to avoid this one and dodge that bullet. Onto 6z, 12z!

  20. paulbeugene says:

    Am impressed!

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