October Is Looking Wet!

4 out of the past 6 Octobers have been wetter than normal here in Portland as mentioned in a previous post:

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As of 6pm Tuesday we haven’t seen all that much rain today.

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The sunbreaks around 5pm sure did make for this beautiful rainbow from Joanna Burn up in Vancouver!

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The rain action should pick up dramatically overnight through midday Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks directly over NW Oregon.  Here is the 8am view from WRF-GFS model:

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The surface low appears to move right through an Astoria to Portland line in the first half of the day.  The showers taper off beyond that time and Thursday looks mainly dry.

Other than a warm front brushing us Friday and the early part of Saturday, the jet stream should lift north for a few days putting us on the very warm side of the jet stream.  We will be just south of an “atmospheric river” of subtropical moisture aimed at Vancouver Island and NW Washington.  As a result our forecast highs of 70 & 73 for Saturday/Sunday could be quite low.  We may end up closer to 80 if the clouds clear out both days.

Beyond that there is good agreement that we’ll see our first “stormy” period the latter half of next week.  Check out the deep upper-level trough and strong westerly jet on the ECMWF for next Thursday…looks more like November doesn’t it?

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The GFS and GEM models keep the ridging over us a little longer next week, we’ll see how that pans out.  It’s definitely a warm pattern, much milder than the past week.  The 18z GFS is very warm with a bunch of 70s Saturday through Wednesday.

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If so that’ll be nice after the icy cold September!  Okay, a degree or so below normal, but I want to keep everyone happy…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

22 Responses to October Is Looking Wet!

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    Shakes Mark…WAKE UP…GET THAT HIGH WIND ALERT OUT OR CALL THE POWERS THAT BE…WE HAVE HIGH WINDS.

    I REPEAT HIGH WINDS IN CASTLE ROCK WASHINGTON.

    SHAKE MARK…..WAKE UP….EVEN THE WEATHER APP I HAVE IS SAYING WE GOT GUSTS OF 54 MPH IN AREAS!….

    I GOT VIDEO! IF YOUR LOOKING FOR PROOF…

    THAT AIN’T ME HUFFING AND PUFFING TO BLOW A TREE OR TWO DOWN!

  2. W7ENK says:

    Tomorrow will be a bad day in Florida… 😦

    • Katie E. says:

      +5 internet points for you today ^_^

    • Lee Wilson says:

      I saw a cat that matched 🐱 2…last night.
      Around 12 am.
      I checked my wind turbine as it passed by. I was pegging 400 watts and then hit 500 watts.
      At 515 watts the charger light went off…

      Then it came back on at 495.

      It was wild last night.
      Seen beaches on the road one 3 inches in diameter and 2 feet long.

    • W7ENK says:

      I hate it when there’s beaches on the road… o_O

  3. W7ENK says:

    Did anyone else see this?

    Yesterday’s GFS output modelling the forecast track for Hurricane Matthew…

    Unbelievable!! O_O

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Well I won’t complain too much about the rain. After all we just finished our 5th warmest Summer ever. I’m looking forward to a snowy Winter. It’s just the transition to it that I’m not too fond of. Nice to have a warm weekend to look forward to. Peace.

    • Nathan Place says:

      Snowy winter? You must be in the mountains or on the east side of the state.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Your right Dan looking forward to a warm weekend also but not holding much hope for a snowy winter but that is ok. I still put out decorative Christmas Snow Man every year, he didn’t mind the 75 degree weather for Christmas we had last year.

  5. Jim says:

    Radar working!

  6. jim says:

    Radar working again!

  7. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Looks like the persistent high pressure offshore is gonna be replaced by a persistent low for a while. Hopefully that will kill the warm blob!

  8. Just recalling October 2012; The first 8 days of that month were sunny and warm for me- then for 3 days it became foggy. After that, the skies opened with rain.

  9. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    haha!! Good post!! 00z GFS looks wet in the extended, but not as much as the 12z did earlier today.

  10. High Desert Mat says:

    Wow Mark, even on a new thread you’re thinking of a special someone. Lol. No need to keep him happy, he just needs a couple flurries and he’s right as rain, so to speak.

  11. GTS1K' says:

    Bring it…

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