Warmest in a Month Today

9pm Monday…

What a “scorcher” by late September standards…many of us in the western valleys hit 90 today; quite rare the 2nd half of the month.

Here in Portland the official high was 89 degrees:

markheatwavestudio_recordpdxday

Not quite a record, but close, and right on our forecast of 88-89 the past few days.  That always feels good.  Here are some other numbers around the west side of Oregon and Washington:

plot_highs_orwa

Models did very well with this one, both GFS and ECMWF kept pegging a high temperature in the western valleys around 90 degrees (or slightly below) for at least the last 4-5 days.  850mb temperatures peaked out at +22 over Salem this morning which was forecast as well.  Easterly flow was quite weak yesterday, but right on the 2-3 millibar forecast today.

Moving on, we have a nice marine push along with a weak cold front coming inland tonight.  That means a good 10-15 degree drop in high temps.  We’ll end up in the low-mid 70s.

The next 3 days look quite uneventful, then we go into a wetter pattern for the first week of October.  Take a look at the ECMWF ensemble rain forecast for the next 10 days:

kpdx_2016092612_eps_precip_240

Those green bars along the bottom show the ensemble average and the blue is the operational model.  Basically rain gradually accumulates starting sometime late Friday through at least the middle of next week.  The 18z GFS was similar with plenty of wet weather this weekend through early next week.  Snow levels will drop to around 5,000′ too so we may see at least a dusting of snow down to Timberline Lodge.

Finish up your outdoor projects by Friday morning!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

 

 

49 Responses to Warmest in a Month Today

  1. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    No more 70 degree days for 2016? What do you guys think? We already threw in the towel on 80 degree days, and looking at the models, we might be done with the 70s too.

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Check out this short timelapse of the clouds up at Mt. Rainier. Notice the low clouds at the bottom, and wave clouds at the top…

  3. Joel says:

    Hey Mark! First time/longtime: I love the blog and work you do… And as a fan of both hot summers and cold winters, living in the mild WillametteValley can leave my weather taste a little “less than quenched” let’s say, from season to season. I love your logical and honest weather reports and takes even when other unnamed stations wanna boost ratings by calling for the elusive snowstorm or arctic blast, you stay true and call it like it actually is. You don’t call the spade a spade until you know the shovel is in hand. Anyhow, now that I’ve “brown-nosed” you (simply because you have my dream job) I am curious on your take of what you feel our Valley Winter will look like and what you think chances could be (I said could not will) of significant snow here in the valley? Thanks for your time!

  4. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    I check out his forecast every month. If you review his verification history, it doesn’t exactly inspire a huge amount of confidence. Sometimes he is on the money, and sometimes he is way off. The reality is that long-term weather forecasting is not an exact science, or even close to it. I hope he’s right though.

    Any of you guys use this website for weather models… http://www.pivotalweather.com

    It’s pretty damn comprehensive and well done for a free site.

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      Thanks Joshua, that is a great site! Looking drier and drier this weekend too! Maybe 0.2″?

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    Every month around the 20th Pete Parsons puts out his 90 outlook. The one he put out last week has some eye candy for you cold and snow lovers. He is calling for a high chance for record cold and low elevation snow in December. Read it and come to your own conclusions. You will find his website at the Oregon dept of agriculture. Peace.

  6. 42 degrees F this morning, and chilly enough inside that I finally broke down and performed the annual Lighting of the Pilot on my heater.

  7. Lee Wilson says:

    Did any one else hit 39°F? This morning? Below 500 feet?
    Sept 29,2016.

  8. WEATHERDAN says:

    First time I have felt well enough to post since the 18th. Last Wednesday was something. Over 75 flashes of lightning. Very heavy rain with lots of thunder. No TRW all Summer and then it happens with less than 12 hours left in Summer. Last April I forecasted 22 days of 90 or more this Summer. 80 days of at least 80 and 140 days of at least 70 this year. So far we are at 22, 79, and 143. Warmer than normal but not a scorcher. It sure feels like Autumn. Peace.

  9. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    This “wet” weekend coming up is looking a lot like the “wet” Friday we had last week. The one where we accumulated a massive .01″ of rain. It is fizzling out. It will certainly be cooler than normal. Nothing even close to 80 degrees as far as the eye (models) can see. I hope we actually get a fall this year with some decent precipitation and crisp temps. 55 for a low for me this morning. Well above normal. September will end up cooler than normal, but only slightly.

  10. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Sun, sun go away, come again some other day!

  11. SortingHat says:

    The mercury was sagging lazy last night not going below 53F after many nights in the mid 40s range or lower. That night it was still 68 at 23:00

    Now it is a more reasonable but still warm 59F out at the same time.

    This morning the wind had a BURRR chill to it up till the noon hour bringing in the (burr) to September.

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Time to pull the 🔌 on summer 2016!!!

  13. buffedman says:

    [img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif[/img]:

    [img]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif[/img]:

  14. Glad to see all this sunny and warm weather come to an end. Time to get on to some awesome PNW type weather! Looks like there is plenty on tap. Rain, fog, cold and gloom….just like October should be.

  15. W7ENK says:

    92.8F at my place yesterday, which was just shy of the 93.4F recorded at KORMILWA6 (Logus-Stanley), the closest (and supposedly most accurate) Wunderground station to me.

    Rumor has it, the last time we got that warm so late in December was 2008… so take that FWIW.

    • W7ENK says:

      *September

      I’ve got December 2008 on the brain… XD

    • SortingHat says:

      December though was an awful start.

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      Great post (s) Erik. I agree with the whole bug killing winter theory. It seems to me that the coolest places on Earth have the worst mosquito and bug problems as well as the tropical regions. I remember watching footage of researchers hiking through Russia to the Tunguska meteor site. Lets just say the mosquitoes were stars of the show!

      Also, thanks! Now I’ve got 2008 on the brain too! Wasn’t 2008 a LA NADA/ light LA NINA fall/winter? And coming after a relatively big EL NINO? Hmmm, gotta go look up records now…That’s what happens when you work graveyard, and can’t sleep on your night off I guess.

  16. 73 degrees F here for a max yesterday, but around 80 where I was hiking (Green Mountain, west of Bremerton) due to less marine influence there.

  17. Lee Wilson says:

    Oh 8th old like to make mention of a weather app that meteorologist are asking people to test.

    The app will use the devices pressure sensors or barometer to send data out .

    This app is to aid and assist the science community to better predict weather.

    I forgot the name of it, may even Mark knows the app I speak 9n..my cells battery is dead atm.

  18. Lee Wilson says:

    I have heard of “A Year Without a Summer” , But could an event occur where we have “A Year Without a Winter”?

    At any rwte, I have a very bad feeling about this winter.

    All I can say is better stock up on the hot cocoa.

    At least we’re not getting the wind storms like last year’s fall.
    And winter.

    We had out flooding later year now I won’t be surprised if we wind up with “Alaska’s Type Weather”.

    Speaking of Alaska I noticed we keep getting weather in from the north seems to be just sitting there and swirling just above Canada. If this pattern hold in have to agree with some in that we will have an eventful winter.

    To be honest we need a very hard winter to kill of some insects.

    I am going to make a foolish prediction.
    I am going to predict that we will ha en such a hard winter that we will be looking at snow on Halloween and a white Christmas.

    I predict that a winter storm will take out power in several areas.

    I predict one event it will be snowing so hard that the plows won’t be able to keep up that will be in January.

    In November we will have freezing rain on Turkey Day.

    There’s my prediction.

    In truth…I am ready for summer to end..please.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Huh?

    • I’m a little confused as well: Lee, when you asked about “A year with out winter”, did you mean the opposite?? Seems to me, we’ve had a few years without winter recently. 🙂

    • Nathan Place says:

      Is this a prediction for Barrow Alaska? So much going on in that post I’m truly cornfused.

    • W7ENK says:

      Indeed, several of our recent Winters could be considered “A year without Winter,” so I’m not quite sure what you’re getting at here.

      I guess the confusion everyone is experiencing from your comment, Lee, is where you preface with “A year without Winter” and then follow up with basically “We’ll have an ‘Alaska type’ Winter so epic in its proportions…” that it will begin more than 6 weeks before astronomical Winter begins, and seemingly continue ad nauseum, perhaps even persisting into July… So the question is, to which do you refer?

      Also, to say that “we need a very hard winter to kill of some insects” is a bit ill informed. I can attest, as witness, that Central Minnesota gets some of the harshest winters in the continental US, and yet every Summer they have an abundance of spiders, fireflies, roaches, grasshoppers, locusts, ants, no-see-ums, and mosquitoes so big that it wouldn’t be entirely unreasonable to fear they might fly off with you in tow, or at least leave you unconscious and severely dehydrated. It’s the same in the Estonian countryside, as well as in that Alaska place you were just talking about.

  19. 89F officially at PDX and higher elsewhere- wow! That’s quite the temperature for late September. In comparison, I saw a maximum of 70 F here under increasing clouds in the afternoon. But the rain we were expecting didn’t come.

  20. Paul D says:

    Today’s forecast sounds real nice after that cooker yesterday!

  21. Yes! says:

    Bring on the RAIN!

  22. “Only” 90 degrees at DLS today when I was thinking we might sneak up to 91-92. Then I would’ve bragged about how if it happened just three days later, it would be the latest We’ve never actually made it to 91-92 beyond September 28. Several times we hit 90 between then and October 7 – but no 91s or 92s. Hmmm….

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