Friday Night Quick Post

A real quick one because there is very little going on weatherwise this Friday evening!

It’s very obvious now that the 10 day period of cool weather we just went through will not be repeated for at least the next 2 weeks.  There is no sign of record-breaking hot weather, but we are entering a long period of very stable and warm days with comfortably cool nights.  Many would say the next week or so is perfection for September!

Upper-level ridging will be over us much of the next two weeks, or at least nearby.  Check out the ensemble 500mb heights NEXT Friday from both the ECMWF & GFS.  The colors are the anomaly…we have higher than normal heights (for mid-September) forecast over us:

ecm_fridaypm500

gfs_middayfriday500

Pretty high confidence when 2-3 models show the same thing.  Note the 12z ECMWF ensemble forecast 850mb temperatures.  Each line is one member of the ensemble and red is the average.  This goes out to slightly over 2 weeks:

ecmwf_ensembles

Note it is above normal (green line) most of the time.   Quite a bit of spread beyond next Friday too.  The ECMWF ensemble rain outlook, each horizontal line showing one member of that ensemble:

ecm_rainensemble

The average is skewed high by a few very wet members.  I counted, and see 30 of the 50 forecast members have less than .10″ during the next 16 day period.  That’s dry!  The GEFS ensemble shows the mild temperatures continuing here at the surface with above normal through most of the period:

gfs_anomaly

Even at days 15/16 that upper-level ridging is still nearby on the ECMWF/GFS/GEM models.  These maps are all for Saturday the 24th…

gem_sat24th

ecm_sat24th

gfs_sat24th

So to wrap things up, I’m feeling pretty confident that in general a mild & drier than normal regime will stick around for the next two weeks.

Enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to Friday Night Quick Post

  1. Josh "The Snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    The lower layers are what feeds our snowstorms. I bring on the blob. Good moist and saturated warm air overriding a cold east wind is just what the doctor ordered. Onshore snowstorms rarely happen in our area.

  2. Josh "The Snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

    The world isn’t ending guys. Our snow rarely comes from the ocean. I actually want the ocean a little warmer. With a little over water trajectory the precipitation will be enhanced moreso.

  3. JackFrost says:

    Everything in the valley is as dry as Redding California in a scary way but luckily no out of control fires.

    Humidity today was 35 percent at (high) noon and now plunged to 26 percent. Well past the 30 percent danger mark for fire potential.

    Lows of hung around the mid to upper 40s the last few mornings more like it used to be in the 80s and 90s for morning lows. No more 60+ crap. Yippe!

    • Oh well, at least that should make a winter prediction easy. Let’s see- I’ll state the following: 1. A green Christmas season (with maybe some morning frosts) 2. Another boring January (fog,drizzle ect.).3. A rainy February and March. 4. Let’s go to the beach in April!

    • JackFrost says:

      Schools out for the summer. School’s out forever!

    • JackFrost says:

      It never really went away. Whatever is causing it is still deep in the ocean and the El Nino just kinda hid the signals a bit but now we are seeing it’s true colors come out.

      It’s going to get ugly before it gets better. That El Nino last winter simply delayed it that’s all. I’d rather it didn’t and we had gotten the real ugly part last winter but nope.

    • Anonymous says:

      Don’t really know what you mean by ugly. Are you speaking of day after day of rain, brutal cold and wind? There is no reason to assume the warm blob will have such an effect to wipe out Winter. In fact, depending on its exact location, it could possibly exacerbate the effects, from what I have heard

    • Hopefully we’ll get a string of storms to break up the darned thing like what happened last fall.

    • Paul D says:

      I’m gonna get real cranky if my grass starts growing in February for the third year in a row!!! 😦

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Better move to 1,000′ in east metro. It never grows until Spring Break at the earliest at my house! Those cold years it was just getting going in early April.

  4. W7ENK says:

    RED FLAG WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    759 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=6133460

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    41 degrees here this morning, coolest since early June. Upper 30s in nearby areas.

    I’m all for cool mornings and warm afternoons this time of year.

  6. Erika Araiza says:

    I hate this weather!!! I want to see some thunderstorms and the temperature get colder and colder each day, I’m so tired of the heat, even if is just warm

    • Yup says:

      I feel the same way. I miss living in the Midwest. This weather is lame. Its just the same weather every day here for months on end.

  7. JohnD says:

    “Neutral” seasonal forecasts statistically = a good chance for eventual low elevation snow–right?!

    • Paul D says:

      It’s time for another big snowstorm in the city!

    • 47F here this morning- that’s my coolest temperature since June 16th. Paul, I also want to see a big snowstorm in the city, but I’m not ready for it yet! (just joking 🙂

    • JackFrost says:

      Sucks we don’t have the infrastructure for handling it considering we almost kiss Canada and they got all they need and don’t shut down unless you can’t see your hand in front of your face or ice is involved.

      We should be more like Boston MA in terms of hardiness where they still shut down over 5+ inches of snow but 3 inches of quick snow is no big deal and will be quickly forgotten about.

      Technically we are in a line with southern Canada due to the curve of the earth.

  8. 75 for a high here yesterday. It was so sunny and dry that it was hard to believe the forecast of showers for last night, but the showers came. They didn’t amount to much, only .04″ in the gauge this morning.

  9. Ellen Wallace says:

    Love the sunny Sept weather! So do my grapes and tomatoes!

  10. WEATHERDAN says:

    NO LA NINA!. This from the CPC. I hope we get at least a normal Winter. It will be interesting to see what they have to say at OMSI on October 22nd. 87 today under sunny skies. Perfect weather for mid September. Peace.

    • Josh "The Snowman" from Gladstone, OR says:

      Of course you would think that means milder. Think again!!! Some of our coldest and most interesting winters have been neutral. I’m all for it.

    • Anonymous says:

      @Josh – True; ENSO neutral winters have had some of our biggest lowland snow events.

  11. David B. says:

    I hope it holds, because it will mean I can revisit one of my favorite high mountain trails in the North Cascades, and be rewarded with a clear-day view once I get to the top of Da Klagwats (Mount Pugh). This year will be the 20th anniversary of the time I first hiked that trail.

  12. Paul D says:

    Looks like Septuly for the next couple weeks.

  13. Boring! says:

    Not only is California moving here, their weather is too. Ugh! Our weather is beyond stale. Feels like it’s just getting drier and drier every year.

    • Anonymous says:

      I thought September is usually pretty dry here. It’s often raved as the nicest month. I fail to see how it’s getting drier if this is a typically dry month

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Drier? Really? Did we not just have one of the wettest winters on record? Did we not just get an inch and a half of rain last week? Come on man.

    • Boring! says:

      1 1/2 inches? Not quite. More like .25 here MAYBE. You seem to be in the better area lol.

    • Boring! says:

      @Anonymous I am not a weather expert and just judge by the average rainfall on the weather channel website. It says we average (where I live) a tad over 2 inches in September. So far we are at 0.25. Hence my complaining..Sorry!

    • JackFrost says:

      I agree. We usually get weak fronts in September usually mid to late that gives us a fall preview then sometimes a long nice October before the storm doors open for good around Halloween.

  14. Jason Hougak says:

    La Nada… hmm wild card winter. Last ski season was pretty epic for a strong El Niño. I got plenty of fresh deep powder turns. Sad to say that slush bowl may yet again be concerned, at least they did operate unlike the poor winter of 14-15. We need another 98-99 winter!

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      In addition to 98/99, the winter of 2007/2008 in my opinion should go down as one of the greatest snow years ever for the mountains. I wouldn’t mind another winter similar to that one.

    • The winter of 98-99 had one big snow event here in Vancouver BC just before Christmas. Unfortunately, it also was a very windy winter. We had one stormy day after another.

  15. Mark Bergal says:

    Nearly perfect. Just hope October shows signs of a cold change so that an early snow season might start. Would be a gift to the ski operators after the past two dismal seasons

  16. I love this kind of September weather!

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