Friday Night Quick Post

September 9, 2016

A real quick one because there is very little going on weatherwise this Friday evening!

It’s very obvious now that the 10 day period of cool weather we just went through will not be repeated for at least the next 2 weeks.  There is no sign of record-breaking hot weather, but we are entering a long period of very stable and warm days with comfortably cool nights.  Many would say the next week or so is perfection for September!

Upper-level ridging will be over us much of the next two weeks, or at least nearby.  Check out the ensemble 500mb heights NEXT Friday from both the ECMWF & GFS.  The colors are the anomaly…we have higher than normal heights (for mid-September) forecast over us:

ecm_fridaypm500

gfs_middayfriday500

Pretty high confidence when 2-3 models show the same thing.  Note the 12z ECMWF ensemble forecast 850mb temperatures.  Each line is one member of the ensemble and red is the average.  This goes out to slightly over 2 weeks:

ecmwf_ensembles

Note it is above normal (green line) most of the time.   Quite a bit of spread beyond next Friday too.  The ECMWF ensemble rain outlook, each horizontal line showing one member of that ensemble:

ecm_rainensemble

The average is skewed high by a few very wet members.  I counted, and see 30 of the 50 forecast members have less than .10″ during the next 16 day period.  That’s dry!  The GEFS ensemble shows the mild temperatures continuing here at the surface with above normal through most of the period:

gfs_anomaly

Even at days 15/16 that upper-level ridging is still nearby on the ECMWF/GFS/GEM models.  These maps are all for Saturday the 24th…

gem_sat24th

ecm_sat24th

gfs_sat24th

So to wrap things up, I’m feeling pretty confident that in general a mild & drier than normal regime will stick around for the next two weeks.

Enjoy the weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen