Labor Day Update & Warmer Weather Returns

11pm Sunday…

Pretty quiet on this Sunday evening at work.  For one it’s a holiday weekend but it’s also the deadest weather time of the year.  I find September and the first half of October to be my slowest time meteorologically.  We have passed the summer heat waves, most fire weather concerns, and we don’t get many (or any) extremes.  Yet the rainy season doesn’t really kick in until late October (most years) and we don’t get anything other than weak fronts (most years) until around Halloween.  Not much weather action the next 6+ weeks and I find myself bored more often this time of year than any other.

The temps the past 13 days; today was actually 71, not 70:


That said, it’s real clear summer heat is gone and no models show anything extreme in the next 2 weeks.  “Extreme” during this period would mean high temperatures up around 90 or so.  Yet both the GFS and ECMWF show a change after Tuesday’s wet system…a change to warmer than normal as upper-level ridging to our west nudges closer.  Check out the latest GEFS (GFS ensembles) temperature anomaly for the next two weeks:


The ECMWF 850mb ensemble temp chart shows a similar rise beyond midweek:


That dip you see this coming Sunday is a trough coming down the back side of the ridge in the northwesterly flow.  That’s the one spot where I could see us getting showers after Tuesday…maybe Sunday.  We’ll see.  Otherwise there isn’t much rain in sight.  So keep watering!  I mentioned that in tonight’s 12 Day Trend on the 10pm show:


Those temperatures next week might be too low, but the point of this product is to give a general idea of conditions beyond the next week.

For Labor Day things are looking good, we’ll go from clouds to afternoon sunshine.  It’ll average out to Partly Cloudy I suppose.  Enjoy the holiday!


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


21 Responses to Labor Day Update & Warmer Weather Returns

  1. W7ENK says:

    Winter is Coming
    A Helpful Guide to Portland’s Rainy Season!
    by: Erik Henriksen

    …and the wild white eyes of FOX 12 Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen will spin back in his head as he shrieks in tongues, screaming and convulsing, the Dark Lord of a lawless city ruled by fear.


    Does that ever actually happen??

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    70 with ample sunshine at 1:00 PM. 72 yesterday with .09. Could have used more rain but too far South I guess. 76th consecutive day over 70. 9th straight day of below normal maximums. That will change real soon. Peace.

  3. W7ENK says:

    Wet day yesterday! Started raining just after midnight, it was a little weird to hear the rain and crickets together at the same time. Heavier rain by morning, particularly while I was on my way to work. Rained most of the morning in Downtown before tapering off and drying out.

    It was warm and really muggy in Milwaukie yesterday afternoon when I got home. 0.26″ in the rain gauge at 5pm, but just after 6 the sky opened up and it absolutely poured for about 10 minutes! Added another 0.30″ in that time, to round out the day with 0.56″ when all was said and done. I haven’t seen it rain like that in quite a while, a true gully-washer, for sure! I was surprised there wasn’t any thunder, but it is The Dome after all…

    Another 0.04″ overnight last night, been raining at various intensities again in Downtown this morning, despite the dry forecast.

    The door sure did slam shut on Summer in a hurry, didn’t it? I seem to recall saying something to that effect several months ago. Regardless, it’s actually nice to get a little rainfall. It smells good.

  4. Fog and drizzle most of the night. .06″ in the gauge as of this morning.

    As often happens during such situations, the east side of the Salish Sea is dry this morning. Sometimes it’s the other way ’round, and the east side gets the drizzle and I stay dry. What’s unusual, during these thick-marine-layer drizzles, is for both sides to be drizzly. Just why this is the case is something I’ve puzzled over for some time.

  5. Looking forward to the sunny trend coming this weekend. So far this month hasn’t been bad, but the change from the warm dry conditions of August was a bit more abrupt than I expected.

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    Enjoying one day of Septemberuary before warmer and drier weather arrives Wednesday. Received all of .09 out of this system. Not exactly a cloudburst. Have gotten .93 since July 11th. Peace.

    • runrain says:

      Looking like mid-80’s next week. I have three friends from Georgia coming here to visit that week. Any bets on the chance 1, 2 or all 3 of them will want to move here?? None have that notion right now!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Wow that’s crazy because I got 0.53in from this system. I have had 1.07in so far this month. Quite the difference.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      It was a more northerly system for sure. I was in madras today and it was pouring, got home to Redmond and it was barely a sprinkle. Mark was right with his call, wet north, and drier south.

      We have a news station over here Mark, and you’re still more accurate.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      After some downpours after I posted that comment the day total has gone up to 0.89 now.

  7. Rained overnight, but hardly a major soaker. 0.14″ in the gauge this morning.

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Feels like a typical post warm front winter morning out there. Mild at 54 degrees, but wet.

    Three years ago today I measured 1.44″ of rain.

  9. A cool cloudy Labour Day here yesterday. (60F maximum). We have been getting showers almost every day for the past week, but not a lot in amounts.

  10. Emily Waldman says:

    I love this rain! I miss it with the got stretches we have had! Mark is this the remanents of Hurricane Lester?

  11. Anonymous says:

    I love your blogs very insightful! The rain is so beautiful! We’re under a heavy shower at present in Longview! I miss the rain after stretches of warm! Mark is this front the remanents is Hurricance Lester?

  12. JJ78259 says:

    Looks like 93 and sunny tomorrow in San Antonio the upper range of Weather Dan Weather. Summer Continues maybe cooling down to 88 by next week.

  13. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Boring weather this time of year is perfect weather. Love the fall sunshine!

  14. Paul D says:

    I like it when you’re bored, Mark – you put out interesting blogs. 🙂

  15. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    Thank you Mark! Feels pretty good out there this morning. No soaking rain means no raspberries molding yet so I’m happy! 😄

  16. Mark. Since I have not seen the subject mentioned in a while that I can remember, does this fall/winter still appear to be heading to a strong or moderate LA Nina? All I can sayou is we are long overdue for a wet/cold winter.

    • SortingHat says:

      They don’t care at this point. This blog has turned into a surf’s up San Diego up north blog and want our weather to be like that for 3/4ths of the year or more.

      The extreme version of Weather Dan’s ideas and they call him extreme. Those who blatantly accuse have 3 or more fingers pointed back at them and at front of them from the back.

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