Cool Next Few Days, Then Warmer, Then Cooler

11pm Friday…

Quite a bit cooler out there this evening, I see it’s already down to 60 here at the FOX12 Studios.  A major marine push means some low clouds Saturday morning, but I think we’ll see tons of midday/afternoon sunshine.

Sunday through Tuesday a weak upper-level low drifts across Washington giving us June-like (or is it September-like?) weather for a few days.  Due to this we might see showers on the coast Sunday, especially up north:

MarkCoast_WeekendFcst_PlusWaveTemp

Enjoy the cooler weather because the heat is on again late next week.  There is good model agreement on a warm-up Wednesday-Friday next week.  Ensemble model numbers from both GFS and ECMWF show 90 is likely again in P-Town for a day or two.  There is pretty good agreement not only on the warm-up but a rapid cooldown again around the 15th.  Check out the GFS ensembles…this shows temperature at around 5,000′ over Portland for the next 16 days:


tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Quite a roller-coaster look isn’t it?  At least no one can complain that we’ve been stuck in just one pattern this summer!  The ECMWF ensembles are similar, so my 12 Day Trend graphic looked like this tonight:

Mark12DayFinal

I use this most nights at 10:45pm to give a general look beyond the 7 Day forecast.

Enjoy your weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

63 Responses to Cool Next Few Days, Then Warmer, Then Cooler

  1. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    12z GFS ensembles are no bueno for cool weather lovers. 1-2 day cool down (still average or above) after the impending warm streak, and then indefinitely warm to hot. I was hoping that my out of town guests from So Cal next week could enjoy some pleasant NW weather, but it is looking like that will not be the case.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    Sunny and 76 at 1:45 PM. 83 for later today which is just about right. And only 137 days until Christmas. Peace.

  3. W7ENK says:

    Okay, so that thing I said about the temperature last week, legitimately not reaching 70 degrees and whatnot? Yeah, so I was apparently predicting the future, because I was actually talking about today.


    Solid clouds all day and a spot of rain late morning, though only a trace. High temperature topped out at 69.4 degrees today, so I can’t even “fudge” my numbers by rounding up. We legitimately failed to reach 70 degrees — ended up falling 13 degrees short of normal.

    That’s basically spot on, except instead of a trace, I’d had 0.03″ overnight and another 0.03″ during the day today. Still a little drizzle yet this evening, with some more showers on the way in the next few hours, so wetter than two days ago. Also, my temperature only topped out at 69.1 degrees.

    Any way you cut it, today thoroughly sucked for August!!

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    This is some of what has posted this Summer.

    JERAT416 says:
    July 7, 2016 at 10:11 am

    This “summer” will make 1983 look hot! I expect 70 will look blazing hot by mid August.
    runrain says:
    July 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    My uneducated and shot in the dark prediction is that there will be no more 80’s in July, and no more 90’s until July, 2017. I also predict that the San Antonio guy will increase his posting frequency to tell us where paradise is, and that Uncle Dan will move to Arizona. And just for the heck of it, I’m going to predict a good windstorm in October too!

    COOL BIAS for sure and very inaccurate.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Dan I do think you got some leverage there, but when it comes to other things like nit picking at data, you are wrong. That said, I do respect that you make a forecast and take the criticism for it, but also dish that out to other people who are wrong. I don’t know if you remember but I was the one who actually said you August forecast would be pretty accurate.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Wow, those aren’t tongue in cheek or anything. Sigh

    • W7ENK says:

      … and I quote:

      “COOL BIAS for sure and very inaccurate.”

      ~ runrain, July 7, 2016 at 10:42 am

    • runrain says:

      Umm, are the expressions “uneducated” and “shot in the dark” unclear here? If so, let me be clearer: my stupid, idiotic, unreasonable, utter nonsense predictions! If that doesn’t work, I guess I go back to being a weather blog lurker. But hey, you wouldn’t get any of my weather song mashups in the winter anymore!

    • W7ENK says:

      I gotchya, runrain. I’m pretty sure Dan was the only one who took what you said literally. The rest of us recognize tongue-in-cheek wit and sarcastic silliness when it’s presented before us.

      Some people just can’t handle humor, I suppose…

    • JJ78259 says:

      Yes an uneducated person like myself can venture to see the that the strong El Niño set up that got weather Dan heated up the last two years is giving way to another neutral to a minor La Niña. I do believe there will be more rain and cooler temps in the future for Weather Dan that is again an uneducated slant. As for Paradise in San Antonio there is that old saying some like it hot! Yes the moss between my toes is gone 45 days of 100 degrees will help that out! Enjoy the upcoming warm weather Dan! I do have to say grabbing the Sunday Paper in December and it is already 60 degrees in the morning on its way to 80 is worth posting.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Oh I do have a wry since of humor Eric. when I read your posts I always laugh at what you say. As for my nit picking at data I probably do. But this is a weather blog so that is what I talk about. Yes Boring and thank you for your kind words. Peace to all and especially to Eric and Mat peace on you brother.

  5. Low clouds, drizzle and fog here since 8am this morning- Temperature has only gone up a degree (59 to 60F). Augtober weather strikes again!

  6. W7ENK says:

    0.18″ of rainfall yesterday before 5pm.
    0.04″ of rainfall last evening before turning in.
    0.03″ of rainfall by the time I awoke this morning.

    I’m now at a quarter inch of rainfall for the month.

    Currently a light shower over downtown, so there’ll be more by the time I get home.

    Chilly out there this morning with some light patchy fog around, I could see my breath. Felt like Fall.

    • runrain says:

      Looking out the window, hard to believe it will be around 90 by Friday. A blast of heat will be good for the tomatoes. The mobs of tourists downtown should like that also.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yeah, but it’s probably going to be muggy AF!!

      Worst part is, all that humidity will go entirely to waste, as our thunderstorm potential will basically be zero. 😦

  7. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    It’s looking like the cool down after the upcoming warm stretch won’t be as cool as it was looking a couple of days ago. Nor will it last long. GFS ensembles have been pretty persistent with average and mainly above average temperatures indefinitely after tomorrow/Wednesday. Might have to get used to mid to upper 80s for an extended stretch. I hope not.

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    Did it snow at the highest elevations of Mt. Hood today?

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    69 at 1:30 PM. So should top out in the low 70,s today. Yesterday was only 75 even though it was mainly sunny. Had about 5 minutes of drizzle this morning. Otherwise it has been dry all day. Hoping for a TRW but probably won’t get one. Another nice stretch of warm weather headed our way starting on Wednesday. Looking for another 2 or 3 days in the 90,s. I have had 11 days over 90 this Summer at my house NWS has Salem at either 8 or 9. 16 is normal for KSLE so we are on track for a normal year. So far I have had 6 day in June, 4 days in July, and 1 day in August. And now we are on track for 2 or 3 more. Last year at this time I had 22 days. We could use a downpour for the trees sake, With all these ULL,s you would have thought we would be awash in rain. But alas we have had but 1.39 inches since memorial day. Had a great time at the AMS picnic on Saturday. Always a treat to talk with some of Portland;s tv mets. Peace.

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Not sure where you are but I can confirm moderate rainfall in downtown and in south for at least a half hour.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Nice shower moved through Salem just a while ago

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Started to rain about 5 minutes after I posted, hooray. Peace.

    • Chris s says:

      Geez Dan, the amt of non factual information in your posts is enough to make a persons head spin. Maybe at your house it was 69 degrees, but not at the official reading site. In fact I only see 68 as a high and that was brief. Not to mention numerous places in Salem we’re seeing showers all morning, then a steady rain starting around 130ish or so. Give it a rest already, your endless warm bias and stats that are made up just are old.

    • JJ78259 says:

      Chris you are correct Salem high temp according NOAA was 68 and at 12:56 67 then again at 17:56. Six hour range 68 to 62 in the afternoon. There were no 70’s on the board. Definitely cooler than normal.

    • W7ENK says:

      You guys’ll have to wait a couple of days for Dan to reply. Days like today, he’s laying in the corner, curled up in the fetal position, foaming at the mouth and crying because his warm bias didn’t pan out in his favor…

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I have a small weather station at my house. Yesterday it reached 70.6. Airport reported 68. So what! People are reporting what it is at their house all the time. Get a life.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I made this poem just for the trolls, enjoy. The morning sun kisses the dew. The dew kisses the grass. And all of the trolls on this blog can kiss my a$$! Peace.

    • Mike near Clackamas Town Center says:

      Don’t mind them, Dan. I’m just amused that your posts have become a magnet for trolls.
      You’re all they got now with everyone else now lurking or commenting somewhere else. Have a good day, man lol

  10. JJ78259 says:

    Salem a cool 65 degrees at noon today San Antonio should top out at 100 degrees again. Will Salem get out of the 60’s today?

  11. 0.21″ of rain when I checked after the second batch of showers stopped a hour before sundown. It’s raining fairly hard out there again. From the radar it looks like the PSCZ is setting up and basically parking itself over me, so I may be in for a good summertime soaking.

    • 0.73″ overnight, so 0.94″ total. I’d say that qualifies as a good soaking.

    • Really felt like an early autumn morning, with the fog wafting through trees that were still dripping-wet from last night’s drenching. But back to summer later this week. Here’s hoping the August rain brings out a good late-summer flush of chanterelles, like it did last year.

    • W7ENK says:

      Chantrelles, Lobsters and Oysters have been out in full flush for several weeks now here in Western Oregon and SW Washington, and down to some fairly low elevations, too. It’s kinda weird that they’re so early, but I guess that’s on par with most everything else so far this year… Today’s rain should help with that some in the next week!

    • have you been down to my old watchman grounds to look for any?….been wondering about that glory spot….

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      My spots down in the central coast range are still crispy dry. And the drips we got yesterday will only make the slugs in my garden happy!

  12. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    70 for a high here. 0.02″ of rain. Very fall-like tonight with temps in the low 60s, wood smoke in the air.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Solid clouds all day and a spot of rain late morning, though only a trace. High temperature topped out at 69.4 degrees today, so I can’t even “fudge” my numbers by rounding up. We legitimately failed to reach 70 degrees — ended up falling 13 degrees short of normal.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oops, I made a mistake. I must have accidentally bumped something on my weather station when I was looking at that earlier, because I just noticed the channel switched to “Indoor.”

      My OUTDOOR high temperature was 74.1 today, still 8 degrees below average.

      My bad!!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Yeah I thought that was a little cool because mine topped out at 79 yesterday. That probably isn’t very accurate though because it’s in the sun. I usually just like to assume it’s 5-10 degrees cooler than what it says on sunny days.

    • W7ENK says:

      My outdoor sensor is in a naturally aspirated housing, and the whole thing is made of white plastic. It’s only in full sun for a few hours mid morning through early afternoon, but that doesn’t really matter because my highs are always recorded between 4 and 6pm (or sometimes a little later in the summer on the really hot days) — pretty much year round — while the sensor is entirely in the shade, and has been for hours. It’s about as optimally located as it can get, away from structures, pavement, etc… though it may be up a tad bit high. I do that to try and accurately capture the wind (it’s an all inclusive unit), and if anything that would cause my temperatures to read a couple of degrees low, but it doesn’t seem to. My temperature is almost always within a degree or so of the three Wunderground stations roughly a mile all around me.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Now today I bet you didn’t hit 70 right?

  14. Anonymous says:

    Heavy showers in the Puget Sound region this evening. No thunder or lightning here.

  15. Worst summer in 21 years. Can’t wait for the move from Cloudyville to Las Vegas.

  16. Anonymous says:

    Hey….first comment on the World Wide Web in my life. Filtered Sunshine in PDX today my butt. Seen cloud formations before ( I tend to look up into the sky. Fox 12 and other local weather guys in the PDX area should all be ashamed of themselves though I can not possibly blame them. If re-incarnated I’d love to be one of them as they have the only job (sans Tonight Show host pre-Leno) you can be incorrect/wrong/not right/ no/ and you have even more security as your cohort in the evening (who incidentally relies on your information) which requires {apparently neither of you to look out the window} and maintain employment. In fact, rhaps more secure than ever because people tuned in hoping to acquire some specific hopefully up to the minute type information. Read or Watch and listen….reverse vise/versa what . Numbers were great is all the producers see but I’m tuning out. Oh wait, I already have…traffic is only accurate info and it’s still a question of reading or listening and looking at…..what? Personally I get off the grid while being on it. Understand that and you’ll I’ll be in contact.

    This story is good….smirky laughing kinda out loud……can’t wait until I write some more if anyone cares to respond

  17. Whenever I get bored with the present weather (and that time is now) I look back on my records from previous years and see what the weather was like on (or near) this date . This morning I looked at August 7, 1995: Second consecutive day of overcast skies with rain here. 2nd consecutive day with a maximum of only 60F. August 1995 as a whole was one of the coolest full summer months (i.e. July or August) that I’ve experienced. In fact, it was -1.7F cooler than the September that followed it, and has been cooler than any full summer month I have measured since, In comparison, this past July was +4.7F warmer in mean temperature. So, I’m wondering if anyone from the general PDX (or Salem) area recalls if that month was particularly cool. Or was the weather I experienced, too far away from where you live? Just curious….

    • Oh well, I guess I’d better get back to discussing the current weather: Cloudy skies, still a chance of showers here today, but other than a brief light sprinkle around noon yesterday, there’s been nothing here all weekend. I suppose almost all the rain has been south of the border.

  18. WEATHERDAN says:

    42 in EUG but 52 in SLE this AM. How fascinating. 70 now. 82 this afternoon. Looks like a weather rollercoaster the next two weeks as Mark has said. Sort of like this Summer has been. So far August definitely looks warmer than July. And July was above average (min+max). All in all a very nice Summer so far. KPTV met has PDX at 94 next Friday. At 8:15 AM I observed a moment for something that happened half a world away 71 years ago. We should never forget. Peace.

    • W7ENK says:

      How in the world do you make that claim less than a week in, especially when temperatures so far have averaged below normal for the month, and there’s no significant heat in sight??

      Oh wait, you’re leveraging your warmer Salem temperatures against Portland records again, aren’t you…

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Only 2-3 days above average next week and then back below. No severe heat or extended heat in sight. Time is running out for the hottest weather. As a cool weather lover, and you apparently as a warm weather weather, neither of us can complain much about this summer. Neither cool nor warm. Every peak is met with a valley.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, and FWIW, that 42 in Eugene ties the record low for the date. Just thought I’d toss that in there.

    • 78259 says:

      I am going out on limb here but I think Salem will be cooler this summer than last year.

    • Chris s says:

      Seriously Dan, if one read your posts, they would think we just went through 2 of the Hotests months ever. Like I said about June, also applies to July in Salem, a handful of days made the month ever so slightly above avg, but like June, July was pretty much a below avg to avg month. Also, we didn’t make 82 hear in Salem yesterday, instead just 80, but I know you like to forecast warm to make you feel better about how wrong you have been this summer. Also, this upcoming 4-5 day stretch will have August below normal, and no signs of any prolonged heat mean it will stay near normal for at least the first half and slightly beyond. But carry on with your warm bias Dan, it seems to be working quite well!😂😂

  19. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Clark County this morning…

  20. W7ENK says:

    I got home late last night, only to turn around and get up early this morning, but when I went to bed the air outside definitely had a chill to it, and the addition of a hint of fireplace smoke most certainly made it feel like Fall. The only thing missing was the crescent moon hanging low over a foggy corn field!

    Low here overnight dropped into the upper 40s. Almost wish I would have turned on the heat!

  21. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Chilly low of 44.6 here in Battle Ground.

  22. JJ78259 says:

    I was in Portland this past week took some clients Salmon fishing in Astoria. Then drove up to my brother’s house up in Seabrook on the Washington coast. I noticed that the leaves are already turning to fall colors on the drive up. Fall is coming!

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      That’s not fall colors. That’s a lack of water. I have noticed it downtown too. See it every year around this time. Some leaves are already dropping because the tress are going into protection mode to avoid death by dehydration. Our plants and trees have to survive long waterless periods. Most of the rest of the country does not have bone dry summers like we do.

  23. Yes, much more variable conditions this summer. I’ll be expecting showers over the next few days here, but still near normal temperatures.

  24. geo says:

    Waiting for those hot east winds to ramp up sometime this month into early fall.

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