Warmest Day of the Week

9am Thursday…

Today looks like a hot one.  I think most of the metro area will end up between 88-92 degrees.  For the first time in a few weeks we have very light EASTERLY flow over the Cascades and through the Gorge; that’s when air is flowing from land toward the sea.  I see the pressure gradient is about 0.5 millibar from Portland to The Dalles.  You can see the (light) easterly flow on the Troutdale profiler nicely this morning.

Capture

Current time is on the left side of the image, 48 hours back in time is on the right side.  Two things show up; note the easterly flow from about 1,200′ up to at least 5,000′.  But what really sticks out is the dramatic warming overhead since yesterday morning.  At 3,000′ yesterday it was around 50 degrees at 7am.  Yet at 7am today it was in the low-mid 60s at the same elevation.  Combine that with the offshore flow and we’ll see quite a jump in the temps today.  At least 8-10 degrees.  So I think it’s quite likely we hit 90 at PDX, maybe a few notches warmer in a spot or two.

Cooler weather returns Friday and beyond.  In fact the ECMWF says below normal temps Saturday through at least next Tuesday as another upper-level trough moves down into the Pacific Northwest.  You can see the below average 850mb temps (temp in celsius at 5,000′) through the 9th…pretty good agreement on that on the ensemble chart here:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Check out that trough on Monday morning.  500vty_f108_bg_NA  This says SHOWERS to me just looking at the pattern only.  Yet it is early August (not June or September) so models want to keep most/all of the showers north of the Columbia River in the lowlands and in the northern half of Oregon in the mountains.  Take a look at the ECMWF rain total ending Tuesday:

ecmwf_apcptot_f156_nw

The GFS is slightly wetter with 0.10″ extending down into the Northern Willamette Valley.

Capture

The rain showing up south and east of the highlighted area is thunderstorm action east of the mountains not directly related to the cool showers coming in with the trough.  For those of you planning on camping in the northern Oregon Cascades or Washington (me) Sunday-Tuesday, it appears to be another cool and possibly showery early August period.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

32 Responses to Warmest Day of the Week

  1. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    Hmmm, another forecast temp. bust in progress….Supposed to be about 78 to 81, and it’s already 81 at 2:30PM. Dare I say going to be about 86-88 before the afternoon heating is done?

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      Two days in a row, not that I am unhappy about another pool side afternoon. This is one case where two wrongs made a right! The AM clouds didn’t materialize at all at least on the west side metro. Hoping it is nice tomorrow afternoon as well, got a BBQ to go to! 😉

    • Paul D says:

      Naw – it ain’t gonna be that hot, but definitely a couple degrees over 80.

    • Paul D says:

      My house hit 80 around 2pm and never went higher.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Dan, I have a couple of questions for you…

    Speaking specifically about PDX:

    How many 90 degree days were there in 2015?

    How many 90 degree days have there been (so far) in 2016?

    What is the average annual number of 90 degree days?

    I’m sure many here are curious…

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      29, 6, 11 I think. Right?

    • W7ENK says:

      Thanks, Dan! :-p

      Correct, almost.

      12 is average,
      29 in 2015,
      6 (so far) in 2016.

      Again, the numbers don’t lie.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I don’t live in Portland and don’t care much about it. I keep track of Salem which is where I live. Yes it has been cooler so far this year but so what. You could say for example on July 1st of some year there had been only 3 90 degree days. But I would be more interested in what that number was at the end of October. Now we won’t have as many hot days as last year but how many will we have. I don’t know. What I do know is that some of you were saying in mid July no more 90’s until July of 2017. That was wrong. One person even said by August 70 would feel hot, That was wrong. So Eric if you want to play word games go right ahead. However I will enjoy our nice Summer weather. 80 at 1:30 PM. Should hit about 85. 81 on Saturday and a good day for a picnic. In the mean time chill out dude. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      The facts are that this is a way cooler summer than last year and it is slightly cooler than average so far. I believe the summer in general will be cooler than average overall for the entire region. I believe this bodes well for a great winter.

      Dan, you are on a Portland weather blog!!!! But you don’t care for Portland…… Lol.

    • W7ENK says:

      Maybe you should start a mid-valley weather blog then, if you don’t care about anything outside of your little safe place? But even at that, I’m sure the numbers are fairly similar when compared equally. And this isn’t July 1st anymore, that was about 6 weeks ago. We’re at a point now where the forecast shows no solid 90s through the end of the run, with plenty of cooler than average weather in both the near term and out far, so at this point it could quite possibly be appropriate to call for no more 90s this year… though I do still feel that’s a bit premature yet. We shall see.

      I don’t believe a single person on here — with the exception of maybe the hot weather whiners, who were obviously wishcasting — realistically said anything about no more 90s back in mid July, Dan. And I certainly don’t remember anyone saying anything about “70 feeling hot in August”, that would be an absurd thing to say. Maybe someone did say that, you’ll have to go dig that out for us, though I’m fairly certain that it would have been said tongue-in-cheek.

      It’s a numbers game, Dan, and the numbers don’t lie.

      73 at Noon today, so possibly on track for another below average daily max here again today. That being said, I am pretty chill.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      We have people on this blog form Vancouver B.C, Seattle, San Antonio and probably other places as well. Do you want them to get off as well. No I don’t care about the weather in Portland. So what? But I do comment on the weather which is supposed to be what this blog is for. As far as the 70 being hot for August I think it was Runrain, but I am not sure. I will check on it soon. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      The people from San Antonio, Vancouver, Seattle, etc. don’t openly say, “I don’t care about Portland”, or they sugarcoat it. Whichever, doesn’t matter, you’re pretty blatant and ignorant. Typical Salemnite.

    • runrain says:

      I said no more 90’s. Oh well. I’m a certified diehard wishcaster!!

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Let’s just all become weather guys on TV and take long vacations, it’s got to be the easiest job ever and if your wrong then there’s always tomorrow.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Of course when you are sitting at home on Christmas, 4th of July, Thanksgiving & during a snowstorm, we are often working!

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Not really
      We’ve had to rescue many customers because they ran out of water with a house full of guests for the holidays!
      I knew that would get a reply back from the chief 😆

  4. LongtimeLurker says:

    Hi Mark! Is it looking showery for Portland on Sunday evening? I’m attending an outdoor event at Washington Park and crossing fingers for no rain!

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      I’d say there is a chance of showers, but at this point it doesn’t look wet per se.

  5. WEATHERDAN says:

    Already 83 at 1:00 PM. This was our high yesterday. Sunday and Monday look to be our coolest days with highs in the central valley only in the mid to high 70,s. After that we warm back up to the mid to high 80,s. The GFS 18z 384 hr forecast shows mainly ridging over the NW albeit somewhat weak ridging. This after a weak ULL swings by mainly to our North. Where has Rod Hill gone? Have not seen him for a couple of weeks. Peace.

  6. My parents arrive Tuesday of next week and true to form it looks like they will be bringing a spell of above-normal temperatures with them. Sorry, Paul, their mojo seems stronger than yours.

  7. Paul D says:

    One day heat wave 🙂

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