Mellow Midsummer Weather

9pm Sunday…

I’m back from vacation and working hard in the weather center this evening.  Well, the weather is slow so I’ve spent more time on normal/mundane “office tasks”.  Such as: catching up on emails, doing schedules, planning software upgrades etc…and I even vacuumed out the dirty area behind the green wall that’s been bothering me for months.  I think I had empty boxes and junk  thrown back there from almost two years ago.  As a result I’ve kept quite busy considering it’s almost the slowest time of the year weather-wise.  I think only September and early October are more boring for us.

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS

  1. Cooler the next two days, but temperatures just come back down to about normal
  2. A 3 day period of very warm to hot weather Wednesday-Friday
  3. This will be the first hot weather since early June.  That’s if you define 90+ as “hot weather”
  4. 95+ is unlikely, and no records will be broken
  5. Back to typical clouds/sun mix with highs 75-85 the first week of August

 

Speaking of slow weather, we are in the warmest few weeks of the year and our 7 day forecast takes us through the last day of July now (next Sunday).  So far this month has been a notch cooler than average here in Portland and right at normal in Salem and Eugene.  The Oregon coast has been warmer than normal; not sure why unless it’s the lack of strong northerly wind compared to some other summers?  You can see in general the farther north you go along the West Coast the cooler it has been compared to normal:

anomimage

Compared to California which has been normal to slightly above.  Nothing too dramatic west of the Cascades/Sierra anywhere along the coastline.  Yet east of the Cascades the cool July sticks out in Oregon, Washington, & Idaho.  I would guess no one is complaining in those typically hot areas.

Today’s 88 in Portland was the 2nd warmest of the month.  Seems strange to say we haven’t hit 90 in Portland this month…and it’s the 24th of July.

Even more strange, we’ve gone through 7 weeks in the middle of summer in Portland without hitting 90 degrees!  That’s a huge contrast to the past 3 Julys.  More like 2012 which was not exceptionally cool by any means but 90+ held off until early August.  Clearly something “switched” after the first week of June this year as mentioned in a previous posting.  We went from a crazy warm spring again to just about normal now for the past 7 weeks.

Looking ahead, we have a weak marine push tonight and then a bit more tomorrow night.  The result is a few more patches of morning clouds and slightly cooler temps each day.  Then Wednesday through Friday we get 3 days of very warm to hot temperatures.  Right now I’m going with 88-92-95.  Hardly record-breaking hot weather (records 100-107) in this upcoming period) but the warmest we’ve seen since early June.  The reason is weak and “flat” upper-level ridging developing along the West Coast.

Take a look at the 500mb pattern for Friday morning, the peak of the warming overhead:

500vty_f120_bg_NA

You can see an upper-level disturbance dropping out of Alaska and it’s headed right into the Pacific Northwest next weekend.  Thus a very quick cooldown next Saturday/Sunday…could even bring a spot of drizzle inland next Sunday AM.  This is in stark contrast to what models were showing 2-4 days ago.  At that time models were giving us a big heat wave with temperatures well above 100 degrees.  This graphic tells the story, although it does use the typically inferior GFS model:

Capture

Let me explain.  Each HORIZONTAL line is one run of the GFS.  The latest is on the bottom.  These are 850mb temperatures, which means temperatures in celsius around 5,000′ elevation.  Go UP the chart to go back in time for the forecast for any particular date which is VERTICAL.  Focus on the circled areas; next Friday-Sunday.  See that 72 hours ago up to 48 hours ago the GFS was giving us +25 to even a +28 temperature.  That’s up in the 103-107 range with any sort of offshore flow.  I’m sure some of your automated apps showed 100+ weather during that period.  Since 48 hours ago models have continued to gradually back off on temperatures AND cut off the end of the heat wave.  So we no longer really have a heatwave forecast.  It’ll be plenty hot late week, but nothing unusual for late July.  I think most of us would agree that’s a good thing!

Looking farther ahead, we return to average temperatures for the first week of August.  Other than the drizzle possibility, no rain is in sight.  Keep watering!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to Mellow Midsummer Weather

  1. Lee Wilson says:

    I am serious when I sad we had some high winds yesterday (Tuesday August 2nd)

    Just because some wind gages didn’t pick it up don’t mean it didn’t happen.

  2. Lee Wilson says:

    Might be a tad presumptive.
    But I am going to say sense were having an early fall (here trees at 450 feet and higher have begun to drop leaves towards the end of July and some have began to turn colors in mid July) that we are about to have an interesting Winter this year.

    And it’s not only me that noticed the early onset of fall, but others as well.

    My prediction snow by the mid part of November or close to turkey dsy.

    Oh and those were some nice winds we had yesterday.
    209 watts leaked on our wind turbine.
    That would be a 20 me or some where in their range.
    The turbine I have is 400 watts capable.

  3. CorbettTez says:

    Are you replacing the weather data sensor at Corbett HS? It’s said “NO DATA” all summer. Just curious, sorry if I missed this info in an earlier post

  4. JohnD says:

    I will take the “boring” weather anytime this time of the year–when “boring” = “perfect” Portland weather.
    On the other hand, “boring” weather during the prime time Dec.-Feb. winter weather window–amid a typical death ridge–translates to “boring” of a different character entirely–as in climbing the walls.

  5. sds says:

    Mark
    You didn’t mention how you enjoyed biking at Whistler. HOW WERE THE TRAILS AROUND LOST LAKE? BRANDYWINE FALLS?

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    What ever happened to the dude who posted the daily highs and lows? Really miss that. I think he might have been chased off by trolls. Hope he comes back. Have a great Summer. Peace.

    • Dizzyland says:

      He’s probably stocking up ahead of time due to BREXIT in case of the you know what scenario and a lot of the Stimulus stuff from the 200+ page law that hasn’t been read is yet to pass with most of it coming in 2018-2020.

      Out here it’s been VERY busy at stores even in weird times with shortages of common household goods and food.

      You literally have to shop at anytime before 11am or noon otherwise chances are what you want will be long gone.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Get real Dan, the only troll is you. I’ve been a part of this blog since its inception and have dealt with far worse than some guy who just loves and dreams of Phoenix weather. Reality is about to set back in for ya and I’m pretty sure we won’t hear much from you when it happens in the next six months. And the guy who posted those “dailys” is Brian Schmidt, who I’m sure didn’t get chased off. He’s been here longer than you too. Anyways, I’m running -2.6 for the month so far, will I break even with the current short lived heat coming up? Who knows and who cares, I may break even but it doesn’t matter when the upcoming late fall and winter will surely make up for it. Peace out

    • JJ78259 says:

      Looks like you are having very normal summer to me. Very normal in San Antonio also this year 95 to 100 every day. We did have a really nice looking thunderstorm last night. Just slid to the east of us fun to watch.

    • Brian Schmit says:

      I am still around Weatherdan. Back in February a virus attack forced me to relocate my blog but I never re-installed it on the new server. Glad to know you enjoyed those daily extremes.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      I been busy with son lol. And got a wind turbine. We had some good winds yesterday too.

  7. W7ENK says:

    “Midsummer”

    “Midsummer, also known as St John’s Day, is the period of time centred upon the summer solstice…”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midsummer

  8. Anonymous says:

    can someone post the weekly charts for the next month..thanks.

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    81 at 1:00 PM. We started out under all sunshine and a low of 59. Interesting that both Pdx and Eug got clouds and we didn’t. Don’t know why. 88-91 today. So about like the 89 of yesterday. About the same Tuesday then a 3 day heatwave. Then back down to the 80,s over the weekend. Great night for a mid Summer barbecue under clear skies. Peace.

  10. Well, I have to eat my words somewhat from my last letter: I predicted no more rain for the month. So guess what happens? We get a one minute sprinkle this morning at 8:30 am from some clouds moving through.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Oh boy, here it comes…

  12. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Last summer was the summer of “it’s too hot”. This summer so far is “ahhh, what a great place to live”.

  13. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I still think it’d be cool to go July with no 90+, especially considering note only last year’s weather, but the forecast for this summer!

    • W7ENK says:

      So far, the “official” forecast for this Summer has been a total bust. Looks like continued bust for the near future…

    • I’m really surprised at how cool it has been. I was expecting warmer than normal (but a more routine warmer-than-normal, not ridiculously warmer-than-normal like last summer). Still could happen, given that Portland hasn’t been all that much cooler than normal (and Seattle actually has been slightly warmer than normal), and August and September are still ahead of us.

      All in all, a nice break from last year. Nice to have the sort of summer weather I moved to this part of the world for back.

  14. Great Friday the day that I’m going to the Washington County Fair.

%d bloggers like this: