Wow, some real downpours out there this evening. Yes, it has been noted as a forecast failure on the report card for next week too…I’m sure you were wondering!
Take a look at the rain totals for the metro area.
The PDX number is incorrect since it appears we’ve seen .53″ so far today; the wettest day since May 15th. In Troutdale it has been the wettest day since December!
The timing of the heavy rain is excellent since we’re about to head into a very dry pattern. Take a look at the GFS 10 day outlook…other than showers tomorrow it appears dry through at least the 3rd of July:
Also notice the last 3 days of this model have shown no rain next week:
The ECMWF ensembles from the 12z run today were similarly dry…showing no rain through at least the 5th of July.
The total at the bottom is the ensemble average. Each line above is one ensemble member.
The key message here is that summer is going to arrive BEFORE the 4th of July this year. Or maybe it arrived in early April, or May, or early June…you choose. Lots of warm spells this spring!
The good news is that I don’t see HOT weather on the way, just warm to very warm weather. It’s unlikely we get to 90 or above over the next week. That’s because we don’t get a hot ridge over the West Coast but it remains to our east, allowing incursions of marine air from time to time. Nature’s air conditioning will keep things under control west of the Cascades.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen