Oregon AMS Meeting Thursday

11pm Wednesday…

My favorite college professor will be in Portland tomorrow!  Cliff Mass is our guest for the May meeting of the Oregon American Meteorological Society chapter.  I’ll be there and hopefully lots of you can make it as well.  Pizza and drinks too!  Cliff was my favorite because he is one of the few academics up at the UW that is a “weather nerd”.  He loves the day to day stuff.  Believe it or not, there are people in atmospheric science that have little interest in daily weather, but are fascinated by cloud droplets, glaciers, or tropical latent heat flux.  You get the idea…

Details are in the meeting announcement:

We are excited to formally announce the return of Dr. Cliff Mass (University of Washington – Atmospheric Science Dept.) who has accepted an invite to return and speak to the Oregon AMS for the first time in 4 years at our final meeting of the season. No RSVP will be needed for this meeting…

Title: Gaps in Oregon’s radar coverage and a look at what’s new with WRF and NAM modeling at the Univ. of WA.

Guest Speaker:  Dr. Cliff Mass, Professor, Univ. of WA. Atmospheric Science Dept.

When: Thursday, May 19th 2016. Social hour beginning at 6pm. The formal meeting will begin at 7pm. Get there early for best seating and get your food orders in early as well.

Location: Stark Street Pizza (back meeting room) – 9234 S.E. Stark Street in Portland . Just one block off of I-205.


I haven’t been posting as much lately for a couple reasons: First is that I’m now on 5 shows an evening and I don’t have much time to blog.  It’s a somewhat temporary situation (a month or so) so this doesn’t mean I’m cutting way back on blogging.  The 2nd is that our weather is pretty slow this time of year anyway.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen



75 Responses to Oregon AMS Meeting Thursday

  1. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    1.88″ for the month so far.

    Average through yesterday:

    High: 70.6
    Low: 48
    Mean: 59.3

    All of these would be the warmest on record for my station, but we are edging down with this run of cool weather. Too bad all but 6 lows have been above 47 this entire month.

    • Similar story up here; This is still my warmest May on record but with this cloudier cooler spell, we’re likely to slip to No.2. Can’t say the same yet about precipitation: An almost unbelievable amount of just 0.11 inches! There are showers forecast for later this week, but if they continue to be just brief “spits” as they have been recently, it will be a record dry May.

  2. Hal in Aims says:

    nice sun break ……..went from 55 to 60 in under 15 minutes…….mmmmm….

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Timberline annual snowfall closing in on 550″ for season total. Currently snowing on webcam and are at 545″ to date. Not bad for a strong El Niño for the upper mountain. Enough about all this record warmth nonsense, I’m ready for some record snow.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      548″, 3″ of fresh overnight.

    • JERAT416 says:

      Here is the snow year I would prefer: I want there to to so much snow that even in the lower elevations, by Labor Day, Ski Bowl gives up on opening the alpine slide because there is still 10 feet at the base there and 25 feet at Timberline.

  4. Ellen Wallace says:

    Grey and drizzle here in Kelso today. Low 50’s. Hey, Mark, what about the rumor that La Nina is coming in Summer – I’m confused. El Nino was supposed to be dry? Record rain. La Nina, wet? Please straighten me out here…Thanks!

  5. .41″ in the gauge today and the high did not get above 60. (Probably about 57 but forgot to reset my old-fashioned max/min thermometer.) Nice to have spring back. Peace.

  6. Lurkyloo says:

    Serious downpour happening (along with thunder) for the past 10 minutes.

  7. Alex says:

    For those of us under the “dome”…it’s been working overtime today defying forecasts of rain. Sure, Portland, Vancouver etc got their rain, but they aren’t “protected” as much as us in Milwaukie. I’ve been watching with amazement as the % chance for rain kept going down as the day progressed. Of course, we’ve all seen this so many times. 😉

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    So this summer will probably be warmer and drier than normal but I think we will be in better shape than last year. Last year once the warm weather started it didn’t stop. This year at least we’re getting some rain right now that will benefit later.

    • David B. says:

      Last summer was so extraordinarily warm and dry that there’s plenty of room for this summer to be both warmer than normal yet significantly cooler than last summer.

  9. Nothing exciting happening around here- no hailstorms, lightning, sudden winds, ect. Just dry weather continuing on… Well, maybe tomorrow we’ll get some decent rainfall amount from showers, but that’s just maybe.Anyway, talking about hailstorms, I do have a distant memory from childhood dashing into school as a first grader after being hit by an intense hail shower. I recall it stinging my face. Thank goodness in Vancouver(BC) we don’t see hail stones larger than pea size.

    • David B. says:

      I find it amusing that anyone would call pea-sized hail “extreme”. Plenty of rain this morning in the Seattle area but it let up by noon and only a few sprinkles since then.

    • David, I don’t consider “pea sized” hail extreme. All I meant was, I’m happy that we don’t get larger sized hail than that where I live.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      I sure didn’t see anything in Roland’s comments as referring to extreme weather.
      The only thing extreme is somebody’s over-reaction to a nice visualization of a kid getting plastered in the face by hail whilst scurrying to class…

    • Intense and extreme are two different things David.

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Mark sure doesn’t comment much anymore on his own blog, weather must be too busy for him to read all our nonsense🤔

    • MJ says:

      Who can blame him with all these split personalities commenting. It’s pretty creepy reading a day worth of it 😆

    • JERAT416 says:

      Well there isn’t much going on. No heat wave, no record rain, no stray albino donkeys, and if he doesn’t need to ban anyone from the blog, well I guess he can just do his regular job. I’m thankful for the return to normal weather. We need some rain to avoid being too dry and water everything. Anything we don’t need to use from reservoirs will be very helpful this summer. I don’t mind some hot days but not until later. Happy Saturday everyone! I have a sailing ship to board today!

    • Paul D says:

      He did mention in his previous blog that he was busy with 5 shows a night for the next few days and then things would slow down.

  11. W7ENK says:

    I got caught in yesterday’s torrential hail storm less than a mile from home. I don’t recommend riding a bike through weather like that, to call it unpleasant would be a massive understatement. It physically hurts! Thankfully, it was a completely dry ride all the way up to that point, but then it was almost literally like hitting a wall. Raindrops the size of marbles, impressive! And cold — after reaching home, the shower cleared about 5 minutes later, and the temperature had dropped to 49 degrees. Since it’s not June yet, we’ll call this Mayvember, just so we don’t trigger someone’s Dissociative Identity Disorder again.

    On the bright side, I found a dollar on the trail! So I guess the going rate for riding through hail is one dollar per mile, according to the Universe? I’m still eternally grateful, especially since I made it home alive and well, albeit cold and soaked to the bone. 🙂

    • Ouch! I have never been caught out in a hailstorm, despite having lived in hail country (the Southern Rockies, hail happened multiple times each year) as a teen. I was once in a golf-ball-sized hail storm that had a few tennis-ball-sized stones thrown in for good measure in a car. That was frightening enough.

    • runrain says:

      I was just about to embark on a run downtown when I saw the hail coming. I stayed in the parking garage and watched. Close to dime sized hail downtown with torrential rain after. The bulk of the storm appeared to head off to the northeast over the airport. I ended up with a pretty dry outing. While I was on the trail, I did note with interest the diversion of one of the FedEx feeder planes heading into PDX. He circled a few times over downtown of the storm before making his final approach. Not sure I’d want to be flying in that kind of weather!

      Incidently, on Tuesday I saw a seal swimming up current in the Willamette, undoubtedly headed to Willamette Falls for dinner.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      I got caught in that too. Left the office at 4:30. Just started raining as I headed out. 2 blocks later, the hail was coming down hard and I took cover at the entry way to a restaurant for a few minutes. Fun times.

    • JohnD says:

      Yeah I got caught in that one too while leaving inner NE. I have never been a huge fan of torrential downpours (when out in them) and this was definitely one of those! Still fun to behold! Two little kids were out frolicking, chanting: “Go Rain”! I added to their chant! The kid resides forever in all of us!

  12. I’m still waiting for some real rainfall around here- occasional light sprinkles don’t count. So far this month, I’ve measured 0.10 inches. Will I see a second consecutive driest (and warmest) May on record??

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      We’re below normal too. Only 1.26″ so far. These upcoming “rainy” days are looking more like hit or miss showers with very low accumulations for most of the metro area. Still running more than 6 degrees above normal for the temp. Lots of brown grass already. Should look like the Sahara by July. Haha.

    • W7ENK says:

      Brown grass? Really?? I call BS.

      Everything, and I do mean EVERYTHING all along my 8-1/2 mile bike commute route from Milwaukie to Downtown Portland is lush and green right now. Grasses are tall and thick, and encroaching on the Springwater Trail between SE Ochoco and JCB so much, it’s too narrow in spots for two bikes to pass each other comfortably. Trees, shrubs, bushes, weeds, wildflowers — my garden. My grass is growing so fast I can’t even keep up with it — it’s ALL doing quite well right now — a veritable jungle.

      Go get your soil tested, there’s something seriously wrong if your grass is turning brown right now.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      Just look at the TripCheck cameras around town. You will see. Of course the grass won’t brown yet when it’s 3 feet tall since the roots are shaded. If it has been mowed regularly and not watered, it will be brown, or getting close to brown. I live in a condo, so no soil for me to check.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yup, you’re absolutely right, this looks exactly like the Sahara.

      My bad!

    • runrain says:

      Happy Valley Park looks like a jungle right now! The grass is not only growing over but through the wood planks on the nature trail boardwalk. I’ve planted a lot of bare spots in my lawn (from the winter) with grass seed and they are flourishing. I have generally bad soil too (lots of clay).

  13. WEATHERDAN says:

    Chilly outside at 9:00 PM. 49 and partly cloudy. Took a look at this evenings charts including the 00z gfs. After a moist Sunday and Monday drier air moves in. Still just below normal temperatures until late next week when we go just above normal. Normal late next week is 69 and we should see 70 or so. Then a slow warming trend into early June. No hot weather in sight but may up to around 80 by the 30th or 31st. Going out 16 days the meteograms show no Juneuary but warm and dry. Will have to see if it verifies. We got just .12 today. And no TRW action. Did anybody in Western Oregon see any? As far as next Winter goes I hate to be a killjoy as our climate warms globally, and as Mark has already pointed out next Winter might be normal and not really cold. With a normal Winter we should see some lowland snow, just not an epic Winter. Still Winter is 7 months out. Way too far to predict except in generalities. For those of you with a cool bias I hope you enjoy the next few days. Peace.

  14. Lurkyloo says:

    Dumping right now. Who made her mad? Oh, right. That “slow” comment. Mark, you’re on mediation.

  15. steve says:

    Will there be any vegetarian sort of pizzas?

  16. Lurkyloo says:

    Heavy downpours and a bit of hail just now near Rose City Golf Course. Not so slow around here, Mark!

  17. Jason Hougak says:

    Yeah La Niña, kick sum El Niño ass👍🏼

  18. Anonymous says:

    So far only .11 here today with a high of 61. Right now 59 and mostly cloudy. Not as wet or as cool as I thought the day might be. Fair amount of sunshine today. I haven’t seen any convective activity around the central valley either. Just a couple of light showers. Will see about any TRW tonight. Next week looks to be about average for the 3rd week of May. 65-70 with a few showers. Not as warm as I would hope for but not a cold washout either. Still looks warmer and drier for Memorial day weekend but no warmer than upper 70,s. Which is still above normal but not too hot. Peace.

  19. W7ENK says:

    My ride home this afternoon could be interesting.
    Wet, to say the least. 😦

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Ugh, how did you fare, Erik? Maybe the almighty Dome will help you out this one time … ?

    • W7ENK says:

      The Dome was MIA yesterday, apparently.

      Less than a mile from home, I turn the corner — I’m in the dry, but I can see the rain POUNDING the street not a block ahead of me, then BOOM! Raindrops the size of marbles, and HAIL!!

      Riding a bike through a torrential hail storm is NOT a pleasant experience, BTW. Some lessons you have to learn the hard way, I suppose. The video is quite funny. I’d post it here, but there’s quite a bit of language… :-/

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    Snow sticking and accumulating in Government Camp

  21. My alter ego says:

    Next 14 days predicted from TWC max avg is 71.5. Normal is 69.2. So no heat wave but no abnormally cool weather either. Just a little bit above normal. We shall see.

    • Paul D says:

      No heat wave is a good thing.

    • JJ78259 says:

      I am seeing every day new reports of La Niña forming. Great news for Mount Hood Ski Resorts. That’s Great News! The last La Niña was Awesome!

    • Anonymous says:

      That’s the thing about the medium-term outlooks showing above-normal temperatures: temperatures have been so ridiculously above normal recently that if they decrease to merely reasonably above normal: (a) temperatures will still be above normal, yet (b) this summer could still end up significantly cooler than last one.

    • My alter ego says:

      Yes anonymous I agree. What gets me is when we go to just a little above normal and some still call it Juneuary. It most likely will be cooler this Summer but not cool. Peace.

    • W7ENK says:

      Jeezus Dan, you’re still on this “Juneuary” butthurt kick…

      Okay, fine! It’s going to be a scorcher this year, 30+ degrees above normal for the duration of the summer, with above normal temperatures lasting all the way into next March!!! Portland will break its all-time record high temperature with a string of consecutive 108-112 degree days lasting an entire week… TWICE! Once in late June and again in mid September, bookending 90 straight days of 90+ degrees!!! The Willamette Valley will dry out and burn, and then come the sand dunes. By next fall, Cascadia will look and feel exactly like Saudi Arabia, simply for the fact that they kind of rhyme. Crops will die, forests will torch, and the only thing that will keep the very ground itself from melting under the intense solar radiation will be all the thick smoke choking out the sky. The Willamette River will boil dry, the Columbia will be but a trickle you can wade across, and the glaciers in the Cascades will completely evaporate.

      There, does this make you happy?

      We get it. You like it hot, and use of the word “Juneuary” offends thee. It’s 55 degrees and raining in late Mayvember, so go have a beer and chill… Or better yet, book a flight to Phoenix and quit whining. Sheesh!!

  22. My alter ego says:

    How is it I wonder that when some forecast the weather 7 or 8 months out some of you go yeah I’m in, and yet those very same people when I make a prediction 10-14 days out make snide remarks about me trying to make that forecast. Just curious is all. Peace.

  23. carnyfriday says:

    How do you set up a small weather station at an apartment? How much space do I need? It’s for a high school science fair thing.

  24. Dizzyland says:

    The weather forums dot com does not work anymore and when clicking to sign into facebook says page cannot be loaded like the server is gone.

    Cliff Mass is now all we have.

    I wonder if they got cyber attacked or if the owner IFred decided to just pull the plug without telling anybody? They surely weren’t taking about a forum shut down in the PNW Model and Discussion thread as if they were it would be a hot topic.

    • gidrons says:

      It’s still there but it’s making you sign in to see the posts. No more viewing as a guest I guess. I don’t think you’re missing much though.

    • Dizzyland says:

      Thanks. I wonder why there was no announcements though?

  25. Lee Wilson says:

    I hope the meeting goes well.
    We definitely need a better radar system to aid in for casting the wewther.

    And I apologize for the wind disappearing in the S.W Washington area but, I got a wind turbine. ..I guess mother nature didn’t like that to well.

    And now she is upset . So she has decided to bring clouds and rain in..so the rain is my fault ..

  26. Jason Hougak says:

    La Niña

  27. Paul D says:


  28. Adam in SE says:

    Slow? But Cliff just posted about TROUGHZILLA!

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