Very Warm, But Probably No 90 This Afternoon

1:30pm Friday…

I was just outside and was thinking it doesn’t have the “it’s gonna hit 90 today” feel.  I came in, checked observations and sure enough, only upper 70s to around 80 in metro area at 1pm.


Now I think a spot or two could touch 90, but I bet PDX only ends up around 87 today. That’s my 1pm armchair forecast since I didn’t work yesterday and don’t work today either.  On Wednesday I stuck with the 90 degree forecast, but mentioned on-air that was a high-end number, it could easily stay below 90.  The reasoning has been that overhead temperatures are not as warm as previous events this spring.  It was just +12 at 850mb over Salem this morning, expected to get up around +15 to +16 by afternoon.  We do have perfect offshore flow conditions

Assuming the high is 87-89, it will not be the warmest day of the season so far (that was 89) and not exactly a scorcher, even for mid-May.  Anywhere south of PDX in the valley stays in the 80s for sure as it is actually running COOLER than yesterday at this time in Aurora/Salem/Eugene.


Tomorrow is sure going to be a refreshing temperature shock with at least a 20 degree and possibly 25 degree drop in the high temperature.  That depends on how much shower action we get.

Inbetween the hot day today and cool showers tomorrow we clearly have a decent chance for seeing some overnight lightning in spots!  All models show some development (showers and thundershowers) during the night as the upper-level low spins towards the coastline.  Nice divergent flow overhead means some good lifting motion, perfect for elevated convection unrelated to marine push going on at the surface.  HRRR implies most action west of I-5 and toward the coast.  WRF-GFS says it’s even farther west and nothing happens in the north Willamette Valley.  In previous events the model placement of precip hasn’t been so hot; so don’t get depressed if you live way out east metro like me…anyone could see a thunderstorm during the night.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


110 Responses to Very Warm, But Probably No 90 This Afternoon

  1. Jason Hougak says:
    I’m loving it… come on epic historical mountain snow!
    El Niño getting the smack down by La Niña and Cold Blob

  2. Jason Hougak says:

    Decent mid May Cascade snow on the way for tomorrow. Snow level low through next week for late May, 5-6K’.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Not weather related but wondering if you got the news report of the over turned log truck in Estacada off George Rd. I shot a video driving by.

  4. WeatherDan- thanks for responding to my earlier comments on “Juneuary”. I am also assuming you were “Anonymous”. Okay, what defines it? I would say (in a general sense) a June with the mean temperature at least 2F below normal, and a monthly precipitation total at least twice the normal. And below normal sunshine hours, of course. I realize that the list I gave you may not have completely fit the requirements where you are, but they were for me, anyway. I like it that you mentioned June 1971. That remains my coldest June on record(though not the wettest). Here’s a personal memory: June 24, 1971 was my last day at school (in the pre- high school level). it was a rainy, cold day. I was coming home and it was so cool (maximum temperature was 49F) I was seeing my exhaled breath. Now THAT’S “Juneuary”!

    • My alter ego says:

      June 1971 wasn’t that bad down here but it was cool. Only two days over 80 and mostly 67-75 and a lot of showers. You mentioned 2012 and although it was cool it was mainly in the low to mid 70,s and not especially wet. In regards to this June Roland what I have seen on charts is we break out of this current pattern around the 27th or 28th of May. Then the first third of June is really nice. Warm but not hot. After that who knows. Of course the charts are less reliable that far out. But I have seen nothing to suggest that we will have a Juneuary. In fact Roland the CPC (climate prediction center) Is predicting a warmer and drier than normal Summer for us. Now although I agree with them this is their forecast not mine. So what I think we are having right now is a short pattern change. The third week of June 2014 was cool and wet. Otherwise that June was warm and dry. And 2014 was the 2nd warmest Summer for us right behind 2015. So Roland I expect another week or so of this pattern then a slow breakout to a warmer and drier pattern taking hold during the Memorial day weekend. By the way I am WEATHERDAN but not anonymous. Peace.

  5. Will the 3rd week of May become the ” Week Without A Blog Post”? What about the sudden collapse of El Nino?

  6. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    Crossing fingers for some convection with this next ULL.

    • runrain says:

      That would be great. And though it will be cooler weather as well, hopefully we’ll have some sun breaks to help generate those showers. That nonstop clouds and rain on Sunday in PDX was a bit depressing.

      And 36 years ago today that St. Helens lost 1,300 feet of her summit. It was a nice warm Sunday back in 1980 as I recall.

    • Hal in Aims says:

      had morning clouds here 36 years ago……couldn’t see a thing……….

    • JERAT416 says:

      Wow, welcome to “average May!” I never thought we could get back to it!

  7. Paul D says:

    New blog please!

  8. cgavic says:

    This is for Tuesday may 17.
    1:30 p.m., we have 68° in sandy with clear skies. No marine layer today.

  9. buffedman says:

    Juneuary rear its “ugly” head

    • Looks like I’ll see fairly normal conditions here.

    • My alter ego says:

      Why call it Juneuary? We are barely halfway through a record warm May. Last night Mark said in his forecast that over the weekend we should see normal temperatures. For this time of the year is 67-68. I first heard the term in June of 2010 when we had highs in the 50,s with rain. So please explain to me how we are having a Juneuary in such a nice May. Peace.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      We are still running 6.9 degrees above normal for May. Undoubtedly, the month will end up above normal. Most likely well above. But… that doesn’t mean that June won’t be Juneuary. The Oregon Department of Agriculture’s outlook for the next 3 months is for slightly cooler and wetter than normal conditions. Of course, that forecast was made almost a month ago and they predicted below average temps for May. Bottom line… who the heck knows? It does appear more and more likely that a La Niña is developing. I predict 1,000″ for Hood this coming season.

    • runrain says:

      That would be cool, to see Timberline Lodge completely covered with snow and the lift towers completely under too!

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    Say hello to La Niña!!!

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    WHINERDAN’s back playing his alter ego I see. He must have caught a sun break. If your so good at predicting weather Danny boy why don’t you go start your own blog.

    • My alter ego says:

      I really believe you are mentally disturbed Jason. You need professional help. You disparage me every chance you get. You don’t even know me but all you do is knock me. If I do start a blog of my own you can be sure that trolls like you would not be on it. Go see a psychiatrist while you can. Maybe you can get your hear screwed on straight.

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