Warmest Spring On Record So Far; Early Berries On The Way!

10pm Tuesday…

The weather has been VERY slow lately with not much to talk about.  Just warm and dry.   First let’s talk about the warm part.  As of May 10th (today), we are experiencing the warmest spring on record here in Portland.

Mark_WarmSpring

Yes I realize we are only 1/3 of the way through May, but looking at high temperatures between 80-90 the next 3 days, it appears even at the halfway point we’ll still have the warmest month on record.  We ran a story tonight about one big benefit…the strawberry season is about to begin!  The berry farmers out in Boring said this is the earliest they’ve ever started harvesting; even more so than last year.

strawberry

No, not those hard, huge, half-yellow things from California.  Yes, I’m talking about the juicy local berries that melt in your mouth.  I made enough money picking strawberries as a 13 year old kid near Silverton to buy my first bicycle so I have an emotional attachment to those little red guys!  Of course that means they will be gone much earlier than normal too.  The same thing will happen with raspberries, blackberries, & blueberries too assuming there isn’t so sort of drastic change to unusually cold in the next few weeks.  Of course this IS the culmination of 26 months of unusually warm weather as mentioned in previous postings:

MarkTempDeviation_PastYear

As for rain, it is getting very dry out there.  I was just working in the yard today.  While weeding (surprise!) blueberries & raspberries I noticed it’s as dry as late June in the ground.  We’ve had less than 1″ of rain in the past 3 weeks!  So we could use a big soaker, but as of this evening I don’t see a pattern change that would give us that soaking.  Yes, the models are all turning cooler/showery starting Saturday.  But they keep backing off on precipitation chances.  Four model forecasts of 10 day rain in Portland:

MarkRain_ModelForecasts

Not real encouraging, but the general pattern is definitely cooler Saturday through next week.  Take a look at the GFS meteogram

gfs

And the GFS ensembles for the next 15 days showing anomaly…warm the next few days then near normal beyond:

KPDX_2016051018_nxa_384

Alright, enjoy those early berries!

7705

43 Responses to Warmest Spring On Record So Far; Early Berries On The Way!

  1. My alter ego says:

    Here is a link to the CPC week 3 forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

  2. Emily123 says:

    My berry plants are loco! My rhody lilac & roses are crazy! Is that high level stuff from the Yamhill fire drifting up north? We’ve got popcorn type clouds with our 78 degrees possible. T-storm?

  3. runrain says:

    Maybe some entertainment in the skies tonight, in the form of thunder and lightning. That would be a nice way to end this current warm spell.

    • W7ENK says:

      Not looking good for the Valley, or even the Cascades at this point. There’s a little precip that develops down on the Central/Southern Oregon Coast at around 3am, but it looks to stay confined to that area, and that’s it unless you’re out in extreme Eastern Oregon. CAPE and MUCAPE are marginal at best, and there’s virtually no potential at the surface all night long. Probably because marine air will fill the valley and slam the door shut on any chance for thunderstorms. Best we can hope for is some surprise development over the Southern Oregon Cascades that slips down into the valley late overnight that miraculously stays together and active over the top of the marine layer, but the chances of that are probably close to zero.

      I was going to post a couple select images from the HRRR forecast model, but instead I’ll just provide the link to the whole suite. Take a look for yourself…

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      Thanks Erik for posting that link! Fun tool to use…

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    I like how alter ego actually pats WeatherDan on the back about what he thinks. “Finkle… Einhorn… Finkle… Einhorn… Finkle is Einhorn, Einhorn is Finkle… Einhorn is a man… “😝
    Ya ever get out much Dan, we’ll do ya…✌🏼️out.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      Alter Ego previous post about himself WeatherDan
      My alter ego on May 9, 2016 at 2:25 pm
      Sunny but chilly this afternoon. May not hit 70. Very dry air with low DP,s. Much warmer tomorrow thank goodness. For those that hate warm weather sorry. If climate change is hitting the PNW then you will really hate the future. I’m with those like WEATHERDAN, I really love the warm weather. Peace.

      Dan doesn’t have a crowd following him it just himself.

    • My alter ego says:

      Jason I know you think I am Weatherdan. I am not. I suppose we do sound alike at times.. As for WD getting out much Why don’t you ask him. As for me I get out plenty, not that’s it’s any of your business.

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    Enough alter ego crap. Its old Dan. You’re in your 60’s, act like it. If people want it cold so be it. You act as if global warming and our warming climate, (if it is in fact), is a good thing. Look at all the negatives then come on here and cheer. We could be in a warm sector of a warm phase or blah blah blah. Or it could all of a sudden turn cold for years. Who knows. Just enough with the alter ego please, peace peace peace. Poor fish. I bet you’ll love it when the rivers dry up too, or the wildfires get into the cities. Peace.

  6. Boring Oregon says:

    How good is thunderstorm potential looking tomorrow night?

  7. My alter ego says:

    Let me get this straight because I just don’t see it on the charts. Some of you are saying we are going to have a 2010 or 2011 type of Summer the rest of the Summer. What a joke. They call that a cool bias by the way friends. Yes we are going to have some cooler and wetter weather for a few days. But look Saturday and Sunday have some showers, maybe .25. Also 65-70 which is right about normal. Then early next week we look to be about 70 with mostly cloudy skies. Normal is 68. So even though we aren’t super hot we should still be around normal. We are also behind in rainfall this May so more rain is also normal. I do not see a Juneuary pattern on the horizon. Maybe a return to more normal May weather. Some of you apparently want cool wet weather so much you think you can materialize it out of thin air by wishing it. What I see from here on out is another warm Summer but maybe not as far out of norm as we have had so far. One thing is for sure however. We won’t know what we are going to get this Summer until October. Peace.

    • My alter ego says:

      Took 3 different sites over the next two weeks and averaged them out and got an average high of 70 with 1.55 inches of precipitation. Wow that looks like an average 2nd half of May or even a little warmer than average. No big heat wave but no Juneuary either. So cooler and wetter yes. Back down to normal. But Juneuary, no. Sorry Cliff. And oh by the way Cliff was talking the next ten days when he referred to the extended. Not even the rest of May. Peace.

  8. I’ll believe this change to cooler, wetter weather when I see it. Sorry to seem skeptical, but that’s the way I feel right now.

    • Paul D says:

      Skeptical here too.

      There are numerous summers when we don’t hit 100. I think this summer it’ll be how many times we hit 100, not if we hit 100.

  9. W7ENK says:

    I’ve been saying it for months and months and months and months now: I recognize this pattern. The door slams shut on all this warm weather right around June 1st (give or take a week or two) and this coming Summer is going to be cool, wet and crappy.

    That switch is now becoming visible on the horizon.
    Just keep watching…

    • runrain says:

      Yep. Looking forward to July 5th which, after tomorrow, will be our next 80 deg day. As far as May 14th – July 4th: stoke the furnace, put a kettle on the stove, pull out a good book and blanket, and settle in for Juneuary!

    • Paul D says:

      Cool wet and crappy sounds absolutely delightful!

  10. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    If you don’t love the recent heat spikes we’ve experienced, Dr. Cliff Mass has a forecast you might appreciate! The temperature balance is on the horizon…Only question in my mind, will we have a cooler to normal summer? Or will this only be a brief break before returning to a record setting summer blowtorch?

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

  11. Jason Hougak says:

    The sun is the driving force on our climate. Look up solar minimum. Our giant star is going into a hibernation mode in its solar cycle.

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Feast before famine

    • Jason Hougak says:

      The pendulum swing that could take everybody by surprise
      https://m.facebook.com/theodore.white1/posts/10153129121054872

    • jimbo says:

      Really? That’s over a year ago. And no el nino? Hah

    • W7ENK says:

      That guy has some mildly valid points, but he also has an equal (or possibly greater?) number of wholly invalid points. Add to that a complete lack of anything scientific to back up his claims, and in the end it all comes across as nothing more than pure conjecture.

      And then, spread across the top of everything is a layer of dripping arrogance that would make Kevin Martin proud. But, as if that wasn’t enough on its own, I perused his page and found all of his public posts are written with a hard Right slant, but in the same panicky, mostly unintelligible alarmist muse that every other quacked conspiracy theory out there uses, fueled by awkward connections to Astrology and/or various other methods of drawing random nonsensical lines across the sky between planets and stars.

      I just can’t — for the life of me — bring myself to take this Theodore White, “Astrometeorologist.Sci” guy seriously. 😆

    • Boring Oregon says:

      I agree W7. It sounds way too far fetched. Maybe there is a little truth but for the most part no.

  13. phil in Beaverton says:

    Harvested the first ripe strawberries on Saturday, there were only a few that day. I was surprised to see them so early. Today I harvested a bowl full of ’em. It will probably peak around the end of the month, I’d guess. This is even a bit earlier than last year’s harvest which was the earliest by far.

  14. Lee Wilson says:

    Oh some of you may hate me even more.
    Our family did a really fun and cool Project.
    even though our son can not have Ice Cream , he did learn how it is made.

    eh..we made a whole gallon of vanilla with chocolate chips.

    So, here it is..a bite to the KPTV weatherman and woman..
    Cheers…Slurp

    Oh, so that is where I put the chocolate syrup.

  15. Lee Wilson says:

    We have Blue Berries already popping, we have raspberries, loaded up, Strawberries in the green and even a mater plant produced its first mater. I had to pluck it to prevent it from robbing the plant of growth.

    We don’t have grapes as of yet.

    Our place has no place to connect a hose so I went to harbor freight, purchased a water pump and a non kinking hose and fill our tub with water and that is how we water.

    we had a lot of wind, but ever sense I got the turbine, well you know..It scared the wind off lol.

    Early summer, early berries, means early food for animals.
    But now I wonder what will winter bring?

    All this could be leading up to a very nasty winter.

  16. My alter ego says:

    What we now call cool May weather is in reality just about normal/ And fwiw after a week or so of this cooler weather it looks like we warm back up. So we have a real good chance of having another record high month. And we still have June-October to look forward to. We are truly blessed. Peace.

  17. runrain says:

    I have lots of green strawberries – none near ripe. They aren’t very big, either.

  18. Kohodatek says:

    I have strawberry plants for sale, Albion’s the same variety that Liepold’s are growing and featured in the news feature! http://www.arbordelfarm.com

    • W7ENK says:

      Your site won’t load through my firewall… 😦

    • W7ENK says:

      Oops! Never mind, it finally kicked through.

      I have two rows (~20 feet) of Junebearing Honeoye, but I’d also like something that will produce throughout the entire summer. I’m not too familiar with my strawberry varieties, any suggestions? My neighbor’s kids are always so let down when the last of my strawberries are gone so early.

      Also, where are you located? I might be interested in stopping by Saturday morning.

      BTW, nice Winter “Chanty” photo! 🙂

  19. W7ENK says:

    I have raspberries about to ripen. TONS of them!!

  20. Paul D says:

    This area is going to spontaneously combust if we don’t get some rain soon!

  21. I calculated the mean temperature for the first 10 days of May here in my Vancouver(BC) and came up with 61.9F. That’s warmer than the average for June! The warmth just keeps on going. My cherries should be ripe for picking by June 1.

  22. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    Bought my first 1/2 flat of strawberries Saturday at the Fairview Farmers Market. (next to the Post Office) YUM!!

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