Big Hail Today; More Warm Weather Ahead

Another round of thunderstorms today across Eastern Oregon produced a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the Grande Ronde Valley.  Here’s a pic from Jada Follett, from the Cove area just east of La Grande:

lagrandehail

Looks like a bit larger than quarter size, maybe half-dollar.  That would be 1.25″

Tomorrow we’ll see more thunderstorms, but the action should stay farther south.  Let’s say a line from Bend to Ontario and spots to the south.  I don’t think it’ll be very active around La Grande and Pendleton.

We sure are going to warm up the next two days as high pressure noses in overhead and weak offshore flow develops at the surface.  Check out the cross-section from the WRF-GFS for the next 3.5 days.  Time goes from RIGHT to LEFT. Capture  It’s interesting that we get the weak offshore flow around 2-5,000′, but it’ll stay northerly down here at the surface.  That plus 850mb temps not going too wild (+15) means we probably won’t get much above 80.  We’ll see.  Definitely not above 85 degrees.

MarkCoast_WeekendFcst_PlusWaveTemp

By Saturday evening a strong onshore flow is developing as an upper-level disturbance comes scooting down through British Columbia.  That gives us a cool/drizzly start Mother’s Day morning, then partly cloudy PM weather.  So yes, you still get some decent weather Sunday afternoon for Mom!

After that trough moves east, upper-level ridging returns for much of next work week…our endlessly warm April/May continues.  Check out the GFS meteogram from this evening’s run, looks more like July with very warm to hot temperatures for an extended period.

KPDX_2016050600_tx_240

 

The 18z GEFS ensembles were a bit more reasonable, but still show above normal temperatures for at least the next 2 weeks.  Amazing…I’m going to plant my warm weather veggies…it’s time.  Very early for my foothills location where it’s cooler than down in the city.

anomaly

Enjoy the warm weather the next two days!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

68 Responses to Big Hail Today; More Warm Weather Ahead

  1. G. Carich says:

    Feb. was the hottest ever @ PDX-breaking the record of just one year. (Just like the Octs. of ’14 & ’15.) Your graphic doesn’t show that?

  2. Increasing high clouds noted here as the evening comes on. We could see a sprinkle or two tomorrow morning, but that’s it.

  3. My alter ego says:

    After a record setting February and April here we go again with May. Yet the weather is not uncomfortable for most. Quite pleasant actually. I hope it continues this way all the way through October. Peace.

  4. Kohodatek says:

    38 degrees this morning with light frost on the roofs. Today is the date for my last freezing temp. of the year and my last frost date is May 15. I see Yacolt is down to 33 right now on the kptv weather map.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Great job High Desert Mat getting that movie line.
    Mark is WeatherDan also blogging as My alter ego? I believe they are one in the same.

  6. runrain says:

    NWS now thinks that Friday may be the hottest day of the week at 87 deg. That may set us up well for some thunderstorm activity Friday evening or night.

  7. My alter ego says:

    Sunny but chilly this afternoon. May not hit 70. Very dry air with low DP,s. Much warmer tomorrow thank goodness. For those that hate warm weather sorry. If climate change is hitting the PNW then you will really hate the future. I’m with those like WEATHERDAN, I really love the warm weather. Peace.

  8. W7ENK says:

    So much whining… Jeez!!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      I’m sick of it. Lots of pessimism going around on here. If people would just take a step back and see how people in the Middle East are getting slaughtered and how the people in Africa are starving, they’d feel very selfish about complaining non-stop about some warm weather. Maybe a few people will read this and stop because it’s getting real annoying.

    • Paul D says:

      People complaining about it is getting annoying.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      This is a weather blog, so we talk about weather. It wouldn’t be fun if we all liked the same thing. I like to be comfortable, and I like it green down low and white up top. I grew up in So Cal, so naturally, brown, hot, dusty, and dry don’t do it for me up here in the PNW. Of course I get excited by extreme weather, but I don’t consider endless warm, sunny days as extreme.

      Obviously, there are much more important issues facing the world than Portland’s weather. Those can be discussed on a multitude of other websites.

  9. Doug says:

    Joshua,

    I wholly concur. I, too, am disgusted by this relentlessly over-the-top hot weather. Bad enough in July or August, totally repulsive in early May. My wife and I moved here from Sacramento mainly for PNW weather. Then I noted that on Saturday when we hit 86, it was 66 in Sacramento——20 degrees that SHOULD have been the other way around. It’s fast becoming a grotesque Reverso Reality here and I have had enough, yet see no end in sight and am dreading what’s to come during our normal “hot months”.

    Doug

    • Paul D says:

      I completely agree with you! Very tired of it. Already watering the yard and using the A/C to cool the house, and it’s only May!

      Let’s hope La Nina hits us early in the summer and gives us below normal temperatures!

  10. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    PDX is running 8.9 degrees above average for May with more significantly warmer than average weather coming up. Here comes yet another record warm month. Now, I am no statistician, but the statistical significance of all these historically warmest months ever in such a short period of time has to be pretty damning evidence of something.

    I know records only go back so far, but I have to imagine that we have enough data to make this undeniably significant. Natural ebbs and flows are one thing, but this appears to be on a whole other level. I have run out of superlatives and adjectives to describe this weather and my disgust for it.

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    Clear skies after a partly cloudy day. Still hit 67. Getting real used to the sunny warm weather. Today was still above normal but felt chilly. Back to the 70,s tomorrow. May see some convective activity later this week. Peace.

  12. Paul D says:

    Thoroughly enjoyed today! It was so nice to be outside and not melt!

  13. Lee Wilson says:

    yesterday 92, to day we needed a sweater.

  14. Lee Wilson says:

    we are getting high winds here in Castle Rock, Washington.

  15. Quite a strong breeze here overnight- about 2000 local residents without power reported.

    • Lee Wilson says:

      strong here as well, i would not call this a breeze. take a look at the satellite in th pacific..is that thing headed this way?

  16. Anonymous says:

    We hit 92.
    Both car an weather station seem to agree.

    • W7ENK says:

      Car thermometers are notoriously inaccurate. Think about it, they’re mounted near the hot engine of a hot metal car, hovering only a couple feet above hot pavement that’s baking in the hot sun. How accurate do you expect that to be? There’s a reason why car thermometers aren’t aggregated into temperature data by the NWS. And a poorly placed temperature sensor compared against a car thermometer is, well, a poor comparison at best.

      Now, that being said, my place reached to 86 on Saturday. Milwaukie tends consistently run 2-4 degrees warmer than PDX, and my sensor is rarely if ever more than a full degree +/– from my nearest online stations, (KORMILWA5), (KORMILWA12) and (KORPORTL410).

      You’re in Kelso/Longview, so it would be wise to compare against stations listed here: http://wxug.us/1uk6t

      By looking at the history for Saturday, I see the following high temperatures for your area:

      73 at Longview (KWALONGV5)
      77 at East Kelso (KWAKELSO14)
      77 at Kelso (KWAKELSO14)
      78 at Kelso (KKLS – Official)
      78 at West Longview (KWALONGV23)
      79 at Longview Heights (KWALONGV12)
      81 at West Kelso (KWALONGV30)
      84 at Beacon Hill (KWALONGV32)

      I’m sorry Lee, but your station is inaccurate.

  17. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    Can anyone tell me what is wrong with this weather graphic?

  18. High Desert Mat says:

    Since theres not much going on weather wise, lets play a game. I’ll say a movie quote then tell me the movie. Here goes, “Anyone of you guys see an aircraft carrier around here?”

  19. …hope there wasn’t any damage to the house i’m moving into in Cove this summer 🙂 …

  20. Jason Hougak says:

    Willamette Falls… well the location where there is suppose to be the falls has no falls. The reservoirs must be holding back a lot of water because it looks like it does during the end of summer. I enjoy this weather but I’d like our PNW climate back. It’s common for Timberline to pick up fresh May snow. I’m praying the pendulum swings hard the other way for several years in a row to balance things out.

  21. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    Yeah, I love a good ol’ western plains thunder storm! There’s no comparison to what we routinely see here, west of the cascades to those you guys get! Constant lightening and thunder, rain drops/and hail the size of silver dollars, hair standing on end from the electricity in the air…GOOD STUFF!

    • Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

      …and this was supposed to be a reply to DB’s comment below…lol

  22. Boring Oregon says:

    Radar looks clear so it should be a smooth drive to Eugene.

  23. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    Thanks again Mark for another very interesting and detailed report. I can’t believe this is Oregon? We just skipped spring (AGAIN) this year. I’m not complaining, I love it sunny and warm, but WOW! So glad that we got the water/snow we needed to keep us from extreme drought this year. It’s going to be so interesting to see how this summer pans out, and next winter too with the changing Nino/Nina.

  24. My alter ego says:

    Very nice warm sunny day today 75 at 2:30 PM. Another nice day tomorrow and more next week. As WEATHERDAN would say Lovin every minute of it. Peace.

  25. Okay- if you’re planting your warm-weather veggies, I’m planting mine. Especially after seeing the 88 degree temp forecasted for next Thursday!

  26. No hail here at all, and just a light rainfall 2 days ago (0.08 in.). Looks like another sunny warm weekend coming up. One intresting historical fact:This date on 2002 I saw a snowfall here. Just enough to whiten the ground.

  27. Lee Wilson says:

    Hoping to get a wind Turbine to harnes some of this wind.
    We been getting a nice breeze for the lasr 3 days.

    About 10 to 15 sustained .

    Were getting serious on taking a bite out of th pud.

  28. DBurnett says:

    Dang, I’m craving some rain right about now. Anyone share the feeling? Let the sun shine all day and let the rain fall all night.

    Those hailstones make me miss Colorado’s thunderstorms. It seems that one summer week in Colorado Springs can see more activity than we do in a year. At least the storms have been fairly this year.

    • Paul D says:

      I don’t mind the sun, but I’m tired of it being at August temperatures.

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      I do miss the rain very much. Things will be browning up very shortly without a major change in the pattern. Way too early for that. Mostly, I’m not pleased about summer starting in April two years in a row.

    • Paul D says:

      Fired up my lawn sprinklers this morning. Way too early….

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