Big Hail Today; More Warm Weather Ahead

May 5, 2016

Another round of thunderstorms today across Eastern Oregon produced a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the Grande Ronde Valley.  Here’s a pic from Jada Follett, from the Cove area just east of La Grande:

lagrandehail

Looks like a bit larger than quarter size, maybe half-dollar.  That would be 1.25″

Tomorrow we’ll see more thunderstorms, but the action should stay farther south.  Let’s say a line from Bend to Ontario and spots to the south.  I don’t think it’ll be very active around La Grande and Pendleton.

We sure are going to warm up the next two days as high pressure noses in overhead and weak offshore flow develops at the surface.  Check out the cross-section from the WRF-GFS for the next 3.5 days.  Time goes from RIGHT to LEFT. Capture  It’s interesting that we get the weak offshore flow around 2-5,000′, but it’ll stay northerly down here at the surface.  That plus 850mb temps not going too wild (+15) means we probably won’t get much above 80.  We’ll see.  Definitely not above 85 degrees.

MarkCoast_WeekendFcst_PlusWaveTemp

By Saturday evening a strong onshore flow is developing as an upper-level disturbance comes scooting down through British Columbia.  That gives us a cool/drizzly start Mother’s Day morning, then partly cloudy PM weather.  So yes, you still get some decent weather Sunday afternoon for Mom!

After that trough moves east, upper-level ridging returns for much of next work week…our endlessly warm April/May continues.  Check out the GFS meteogram from this evening’s run, looks more like July with very warm to hot temperatures for an extended period.

KPDX_2016050600_tx_240

 

The 18z GEFS ensembles were a bit more reasonable, but still show above normal temperatures for at least the next 2 weeks.  Amazing…I’m going to plant my warm weather veggies…it’s time.  Very early for my foothills location where it’s cooler than down in the city.

anomaly

Enjoy the warm weather the next two days!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen