Big Soaking Today & Record Highs Sunday

9pm Thursday…

Today was a cold one, at least by recent standards.  Actually I think today was a long overdue cold and showery spring day!  Take a look at the rain totals since midnight:

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

And the 24 hour totals on the eastside show we’ve seen a real nice soaking:

MarkRain_EastMetroDownpours

That’s about it for rain now as we head into another unusually warm (hot?) pattern for a few days.

MarkHeadlines_Spring.png

Strong high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest Saturday and Sunday, giving us our 3rd consecutive mild and dry weekend.

How warm this time around?  

We’re forecasting temperatures very similar to the record-setting weather we just saw 7 days ago:

MarkTemp_Last12Days

You might be wondering how we arrive at a forecast that seems to be warmer than other forecasts (as of Thursday evening)?  Our reasoning (both Liana & I negotiated the numbers!):

  1. 850mb temps reach +17 to +18 deg C. over Salem late Sunday and early Monday; exactly what was forecast last time around (it ended up hitting +20).
  2. Solid sun Sunday and Monday
  3. Easterly flow (3-5 millibars gradient through the Gorge) all day Sunday and most of Monday too.  Gradients go flat late Monday, but no onshore flow
  4. 9 days farther into the spring = slightly more heat from the sun and slightly easier to break overnight inversions
  5. Last time around PDX & East Metro high temps were kept down slightly by the very strong east wind.  That gradient should not be nearly as strong this time around so I expect these locations to be more similar to the other locations that were in the 87-90 degree range last time.

7 Day

There you go, that’s the plan.  The possible thunderstorms on Tuesday or Wednesday are a huge question mark.  It depends on the orientation of an upper-low as it swings north and knocks down the ridge early next week.

By the way, records are 79/80/80 for Sunday/Monday/Tuesday at PDX.  I’m quite confident we’ll bust two of those records, but Tuesday is a huge guess depending on timing of a big marine push coming behind the warm weather.  We HAVE seen 5 80+ days in one April (2004) but it has only happened once.  Otherwise we’ve never seen more than 3 80+ days.

One more thing, before you attribute THIS APRIL (and this April only) to warming springtime temps, that’s definitely not the case.  Yes, our summer and early fall temps have definitely been getting warmer.  But until the last few years we were seeing lots of chilly April temps.  Look at the 90 year chart and you’ll see we’ve seen warmer periods than cooler periods.  Interesting that spring, unlike other seasons around here, has not been consistently warming eh?

Capture

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

33 Responses to Big Soaking Today & Record Highs Sunday

  1. Doug says:

    We are going to be hotter than . . . Phoenix today and tomorrow, possibly Tuesday.

    Record rainfall in December, hottest ever February (March, too?). And now this. Is there any such thing as “normal” weather here anymore?

    Doug

    • Paul D says:

      The new normal is abnormal.

      So if we’re hotter than Phoenix, they must be having a cold spell 🙂 Those poor people….

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Dipped to 41 this morning. now on the rise again. Amazing weather!

  3. Paul D says:

    April, April, wherefore art thou April? Please come back!

    Tell August to get back in line, wait it’s turn and quit being a bully 🙂

  4. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Amazing night for the bird migrations! Step outside and hear the geese honking, come back inside and the look at the NWS radar loop…yup, they’re on the move,,big time

  5. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    Fun to watch the hi pressure Pac Man monster eat away at the incoming system! http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis_common+12

  6. Well, that’s the first time I can recall in my life someone referring to my idea as “sexy”! Nice- I’ll take it. But more seriously, if we’re going to see a significant cooling around here, I think we need something dramatic to occurr: What about a major volcanic eruption up in Alaska?! Not that I wish for it, exactly, but wouldn’t that do it? Anyway, just saw a brief sprinkle of rain here a few minutes ago. So that big warm-up is still at least a day away for us.

    • DBurnett says:

      I’m actually interested in seeing another Year Without a Summer. In 1816, after the eruption of Mt Tambora in 1815, Europe and North America had one of the coldest summers in decades. Snow fell in Quebec in June and there was frost all throughout the summer in the northeast. Of course, that followed several volcanic eruptions and low solar activity, so we shouldn’t get our hopes up.

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    35 here with lots of frost. Beautiful sunrise happening now.

  8. Boring Oregon says:

    1.43″ yeaterday. Wow! That brings me to a month total of 2.51″

  9. Paul D says:

    Can we please have some record low highs? We get far too many record highs.

    • runrain says:

      I remember a late June day about 10 years ago where the high temp was 55 deg.

    • Paul, I think someone’s going to have to invent a time machine and take you back some years ago when we used to have record low maximums in the PNW. For example, i’d take you back with me to May 2, 1988 when I recorded a high of 45. Nice, rainy day! 🙂

    • Paul D says:

      And nobody believes in global warming. Hmmm…….

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Jesus Roland, that sounds sexy. It happened before and it’ll definitely happen again. Who knows when. The last few years have been anomalous. Ita just a matter of time before the low solar cycle, la Nina, and the all other important other factors come into play. I’m thinking in the next winter or two and we’ll all start seeing it for an indefinite amount of time. What do u think Mark? Alot of indicies and cycles out there right now.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Personally I’ll take the warmer springs temps over those years when I was cramming tomato plants under plastic and watching them get moldy.
      C’mon sunshine!

    • Anonymous says:

      The sun’s in!
      The mold’s out!

    • Paul D says:

      I’ve got nothing against some sun, but 25 over normal for the high temperature?!? 65 and sunny would be really nice this time of year.

    • Paul D says:

      Could anyone agree on a definition of “truly disgusting”? I doubt it. I was in Phoenix last August when they broke a record for a certain day and hit 117. I’d lobby for that being “truly disgusting” 🙂

    • …an inch of rain and 32.5 degrees defines it in my book….

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Don’t forget a raw east wind with that, Larry

  10. Less than 0.01 inches here yesterday from that system that soaked you guys. So far I have counted 0.57 inches for the month. By this time next week if I don’t see some measurable amounts, I’ll be thinking we could see a record dry April shaping up. But that’s still a way off.

  11. Paul D says:

    Aargh! Another April heatwave! 85 and 88? That’s truly disgusting. Hopefully something happens to drop those numbers into the 70’s, but I doubt it’ll happen. Sigh…..

  12. WEATHERDAN says:

    Winters of late have stunk. Very little lowland snow and way too mild. But our Summers have been grand. With the exceptions of 1993, 1996, 2000, 2010, and 2011 we are on a 26 year roll. And we keep getting better (warmer). Maybe if we get a La Nina next Winter we can finally have at least a normal Winter. Today we had a high of 56 and .84 of rain. Looking forward to this weekend. Peace.

  13. W7ENK says:

    0.71″ at my place today.

    Kind of a soaker…

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