Spring Break 2016: The Usual Mix of Sun/Showers/Warm/Cool

9pm Friday…

springbreak

Oregon’s spring break is here and lots of people are traveling today, tomorrow, or Sunday.  Often in search of sun, snow, or sand!  How does the weather look?  Surprise, quite a mixed bag.  That’s common in late March because we are in spring now, the transition between winter and summer.  And here in the Pacific Northwest spring goes on a LONG time since we don’t have real cold winters or scorching hot summers.

MarkHeadlines_Spring

Today was warm of course, although very windy.  Peak gust was 41 mph at PDX.  That east wind dies down and we’ll barely notice it in the metro area tomorrow.  At the same time a dying front drags onto the coastlline.  So expect lots of clouds at the beaches and a few light showers.  Inland we’re ahead of the system so still a mix of warm sun and clouds…pretty nice for March 19th.

But this changes Sunday through Thursday this coming week; we will be under wet westerly flow much of the time.  So back to showers and cool weather.  Expect snow in the mountains at times too.  There IS still hope for the very end of spring break though…models are trying to pop up some sort of ridging along with the attending drier/warmer weather.  Take a look at the GEFS ensemble temperature chart, showing surface temperature departure from average.  You see the near normal to slightly below normal temps next week, then a real obvious warm spell around 3-12 degrees above normal.

gfs_18z

 

The 10 day ECMWF 500mb height anomaly shows that upper-level ridging for Easter Saturday, or at least just offshore.

ecmwf_Sat26

Wouldn’t that be nice to have sunny/warm for Easter weekend?  Of course that would probably be asking too much.  That said, the 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb chart lends some moderate confidence to a warm spell in the 7-14 day period:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

By the way, if you want to ski the next few days, choose tomorrow (Saturday) or Monday, not Sunday.  A warm system swings up out of California so likely a wet day at the ski areas:

MarkSkiWeekend

Also for you social media folks, I finally broke down and created a Twitter page:  https://twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV

I have always had a Facebook page too, it’s here:  https://www.facebook.com/Mark-Nelsen-213382442022852/

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

17 Responses to Spring Break 2016: The Usual Mix of Sun/Showers/Warm/Cool

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Saw some Ac Mam in se quad on Friday with some virga South. The protuberances on a couple of the Ac Mam lowered a fair amount but never came close to the ground. Talked to NWS about it but there were no other reports. Alas I was so fascinated with the cloud action I forgot to take a picture. Still enjoying the nice Spring weather and the later sunsets. Peace.

  2. Spring is still officially a few hours away, but today was as springlike a day as I’ve seen: We started off mild this morning (about 44F) and despite the increased layers of clouds got up to 62F again this afternoon even with a couple of light rain sprinkles. Wish I could see a repeat tomorrow.

  3. Jason Hougak says:

    Funny Mt Hood Meadows is boasting the nations highest base at 252″ at 6200′ while Timberline has 143″ at 5800′, when is Meadows gonna tell the truth and get that sensor out of that snow drift!

  4. JackFrost says:

    Same here. In the western weather forums they have been mentioning a cool regime which a certain user who I won’t name is really excited about the colder aspects but I’ve yet to see it.

    Nothing we haven’t already had.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Boy Mark, I think you covered all bases😆. Good job, have a great spring break!

  6. Yesterday was intresting in one respect; We had a layer of high cloud move into the area before noon, and it was quite cool. Then it thinned out in the afternoon and the temperature really responded by climbing up to a maximum of 62.6F. Not quite the warmest day of the year, but it probably would have been had the sky not become high overcast in the morning.

    • JackFrost says:

      What is this cold regime the western weather forum people are all excited about the past 2 or 3 days causing such strife?

      They are all excited we are entering a newpattern phase and I so far have not seen it materialize and they are saying “It’s not above 50F! and “We’re having a proper freeze!”.

      The only thing different is the east wind setup but that is pretty short lived and I recorded frost on roofs but no ground frost yet here n the Scio area.

    • JackFrost says:

      Oh and one user near Arlington chimed in saying “29F and a hard frost here!”

  7. marinersfan85 says:

    Lost power in Newberg yesterday (friday) for a short time. Max gust was 23. Its baseball season!

    • BlazerFan32 says:

      I always loved playing high school baseball in the snow in Enumclaw this time of the year. It was twice as much fun when we blew the Hornets out in the games we played them. 🙂

  8. Aleta-West Gresham says:

    Thank you Mark!

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