Quick Look: Windstorm or No Windstorm Sunday?

Have to get to work early today for something else, but my eye is sure drawn to this…

Both the WRF-GFS & NAM-MM5 forecast a significant windstorm in the valleys Sunday midday/afternoon.   Deepening surface low moves inland over Washington, isobars are perfectly aligned, and 15-20 millibar pressure difference Eugene to Olympia.  Wow, that’s like what we saw in December 2014 or stronger.  50kt gusts forecast over metro area at the surface.

slp.58.0000

Yet…ECMWF says WHOA!,  the low is headed into Vancouver Island instead and it’s just regular breezy here.  In fact none of its ensemble members from last night, or the operational run this morning have the low close by.

eps_slp_lows_nw_12

It’s an epic model fight but one we’ll be watching VERY closely…more later today.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

12 Responses to Quick Look: Windstorm or No Windstorm Sunday?

  1. alohabb says:

    And the alerts go out. Now the big question. Will it or won’t it

  2. Alohabb says:

    Well my phone just alerted me of a High Wind Advisory. Please Fall, go away. Coronado in one week, can’t wait!!!

  3. W7ENK says:

    HIGH WIND WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    329 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

    https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=1195571

    WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Next weekend is real eye candy. Sunny and maybe 65-70. And with DST here it should be quite nice. Really looking forward to some warmer drier weather after 5 months of slop. Peace.

    • Longview 400 ft says:

      That would be nice!!!! How about two straight weeks of that kind of weather.

      You know, mow the lawn while the grass is dry, but first pick up all the branches from all the wind storms!!!

      Not dodging cold rain showers!!

    • Jake-(Gresham) says:

      Good to hear. Brutish term, looking forward to spring break!

  5. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I believe the GFS hit the December storm better than the Euro? Mark or Rob do you remember?

  6. I predict the GFS (Garbage Forecasting System) will once again live up to its nickname.

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