Friday Should be Warmest So Far…

10pm Thursday…

Today was a wonderful early spring day in the Pacific Northwest with high temperatures up into the 60s in many areas:

PLOT_Highs_ORWA2

PLOT_Highs_ORWA

Note the high temperatures east of the mountain were similar to westside, March is the month where the see-saw begins to tip towards warmer east of the mountains.  Higher sun angle means land is warming up; meanwhile the ocean is still the same temperature.  This also spells the end of the east wind season too by the way…good for you folks in the western Gorge!  But I digress…

Tomorrow should be even warmer for most of us.  A warmer atmosphere overhead, light southeasterly flow aloft and at the surface, and at least a half sunny day should allow temperatures to end up a few degrees warmer than those you see above.  I would not be surprised to see some 70 degree temperatures in the Willamette Valley if the clouds hold off.   I do not expect to exceed last March’s 73 degree reading at PDX though.  More like 64-67 degrees.  Our 65 degree forecast high might be conservative…we’ll see.  Either way, a very nice day!MarkHeatwaveStudio_RecordPDXDay_March

Looking farther ahead, a cooler trough moves inland Saturday night for more reasonable early March weather Sunday-Tuesday.  That means cool showers with sunbreaks here and there.  Temperatures remain cool through all of next week, check out the ECMWF meteogram from this evening…wet and cool through most of the week:

ecmwf_meteogram

Looking even farther ahead, the ECMWF ensemble maps just came out again this afternoon.  Not dramatically different from earlier this week showing a shift to drier weather in 10 days or so.  Here is the precipitation anomaly for each of the next 4 weeks:

And the surface temperature anomaly for those same 4 weeks showing near normal temps the next two weeks and then warmer after that time:

 

By the way, a very interesting tidbit came out yesterday in the “climate discussion/debate”.  For years there have been several different datasets used for monitoring global climate.  One that I have always liked is from UAH; mainly because it has sometimes been an outlier.  This is an extreme simplification, but basically this set is often on the cool side and has continued to show a month in 1998 as the warmest on record while all other datasets have shown warmest months on record over the past year or two.  Well, the measurement was off the charts in February.  Note the brand new high:

UAH_LT_1979_thru_February_2016_v6

The posting is here.  A quote from Roy Spencer:

“…In addition to the expected tropical warmth, scattered regional warmth outside the tropics led to a record warm value for extratropical Northern Hemispheric land areas, with a whopping +1.46 C anomaly in February…fully 0.5 deg. C above any previous monthly anomaly (!)…”

So what happened in the past month was not only El Nino but higher latitudes were warm as well.  He notes further down in his discussion that the 97-98 El Nino actually had warmer anomalies down in the tropics.

The main message is that we are not alone here in the Pacific Northwest; lots of other places are warm as well.  I assume the other datasets and/or NCDC will be talking about the extreme warmth in the next few days/week too so we’ll see how extreme they were.

Enjoy the weekend, I am off to the Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop the next two days up in Seattle.  Should be some great presentations up there as always.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

44 Responses to Friday Should be Warmest So Far…

  1. First 6 days of March in The Dalles averaged out to 50.33 degrees F….that would make for the 5th warmest March in 68 years of airport records if the rest of the month ended up the same overall temperature.

    And now the “cool” week for March is looking pretty close to average as a whole, with some slightly warmer and cooler days thrown in. But NO big cold “late winter” trough with 850mb temps in the -4 to -8 range like we get in many La Niña Marches.

    Then likely on to warm/sunny beginning around the 16th or 17th of March? Stay tuned.

  2. Boring Oregon says:

    Latest last frost Mark?

  3. March is becoming the “new November”- at least it is where I am. Another rainy morning… In the past 10 years, March has been the wettest month of the year twice here (2007,2013) the second wettest (2011,2014) and the third wettest in 2015. As for this year, it’s early yet, but based on my total amount up to this hour, if things continue to the 31st it will be second only to 2007 with over 10 inches. When is that change coming? I’m getting impaitent! 😦

  4. …wow, i don’t suppose anyone on this weather blog saw any wind tonight?…

  5. DELXV says:

    I do not see any mention of the potential strong west Oregon wind event forecast by at least one model for next Wednesday pm. Interesting potential storm to follow on the model outputs.

  6. Anonymous says:

    The real truth is that there has always been warming and cooling. We had glaciers covering most of Oregon and Washington at one point. Greenland was a farmed… To say its global warming is true in one sense because we are in a warming cycle.. We can and will eventually turn back into a cooling cycle.. Mother Nature rules!! Alarmists don’t study long history of global weather cycles very well. 200 years is not a very good specimen. More like 20,000 years,.. We are fed this nonsense by liberal media…

  7. Today (instead of Friday) had my warmest temperature of the year to date with 62.8F (or 63 if you prefer), thanks to a unexpected clear-off of clouds that happened before sunrise and lasted through to mid-afternoon. In other words- a nice day! Too bad it won’t be repeated tomorrow.

    • rubusleucodermis says:

      That’s about what it made it up to at my place yesterday, too. A little over the 62 line but not to the halfway mark between the 62 line and the 64 one. First 60+ reading of the season for me.

  8. Vinnybob says:

    70’s, the earlier the better. The whole winters been a crapfest of warm rain

  9. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Well it has been warm all over. Particularly up north and it doesn’t look like it’s cooling off any time soon.
    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  10. I’m not ready for a “nice death ridge” just yet- just want about a week of sunshine sometime this month. No temperatures in the 70’s until April, please! 🙂

  11. Well, Mark sure screwed up the clouds/temps today! And I don’t think we get another chance tomorrow or in the immediate future, for sunny 65+ days. Hopefully we can get a nice death ridge in the 2nd half of March AFTER all this rain. I think the soil moisture and low-level atmospheric humidity might help to hold nighttime temps up in a subsequent ridging pattern, more than it hurts daytime heating. So instead of a high of 75 and low of 40 it might be more like 73/45.

  12. Anonymous says:

    We maxed out at 56 today in Corbett with winds still gusting from 22-30mph. A far cry from the warmest day of the year

  13. gidrons says:

    The spike in the troposphere temperatures are a direct result of convection transporting heat from the warm Nino sea surface to the atmosphere. We all pretty much knew it was coming.

    The new record is probably a result of the higher baseline.

    As far as quoting Spencer, I think Mark is trying to start the fireworks.

  14. GTS1K' says:

    So much for that “…half a sunny day…” today…

    …oh well, yesterday was nice.

    • JERAT416 says:

      This may be off subject, but I don’t mean to troll. Mark, why does the forecast sometimes call for a “mostly dry” day, yet the 7 day graphic doesn’t seem to show it? Why not have it say”mostly dry” or “chance”, or even “dry?” instead of showing rain shower graphics? Obviously a graphic can’t show too much at once, but when they conflict, I get confused.

  15. Paul D says:

    Sounds like plenty of fodder for the global warming fanatics out there.

  16. Warm overnight temperature here: My minimum was 49.4F at about 12:30am, and that’s my highest daily minimum since Oct .31.

  17. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    First?
    Good update! I’ve always thought the UAH was in the pocket of FOX news corp so they were going to report lower averages just to piss off the “liberal eviromentalists” but now we have a conundrum….
    It’s warming pretty much everywhere. And the box elder bugs on my house are loving it!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      It’s a box elder/stink bug hell on the south side of my house!

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I hate those bugs!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      @Boydo, you know the only reason you posted that was to stir the pot and start conflict. You could have easily just made a comment about the bugs but no, you had to bring politics into it. Nice job buddy.

    • runrain says:

      Why do they call them stink bugs, anyway? Do they smell when you smash ’em? Not that I’d do that….

    • JackFrost says:

      Boydo isn’t it funny watching all the Fox Viewers on here foam on the mouth at a slightly critical comment? I’ve seen far worse bashing on other forums.

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Yeah Jack, I bet you’re so perfect that you wouldn’t attack me if I insulted the Communist News Network. Give me a break.

%d bloggers like this: