A Milder & Drier Week

The weather is a bit slow this evening, as it has been most of the last 6 weeks.  After some cool and showery days late last week now we’ve dried out.  February here in Portland is running 2nd warmest on record, behind last year:

MarkFebruary_TempLast8Years

Notice how warm these past two Februarys have been compared to previous years?  In fact the last “cold” month (relative to normal) WAS 2 years ago…February 2014.  It’s been a long two years of mild to very warm to record-breaking warm weather!  You can see the toll it has taken on our mountain snowpack.  The northern Oregon Cascades are below normal now with the southern/eastern half of the state above normal but nowhere near where it was 6 weeks ago:

Capture

Looking ahead, a mild week with upper-level ridging along the West Coast

MarkHeadlines_Spring

There was quite a bit of dense fog around this morning, but with a drier atmosphere Tuesday morning the fog shouldn’t be as widespread.  Plus easterly flow has begun overhead and when that happens the fog layer tends to be very thin.

How warm later this week?  Not excessively warm, just 8-12 degrees above normal.  I doubt we get above 65 degrees, but we may exceed the highest we’ve seen so far this month (63).

Showers do return as some weak systems move through the ridge over the weekend, but in general we stay mild through the end of meteorological winter early next week.  Spring begins mild the middle of next week too.  Here are the 4 ECMWF weekly maps, showing 500mb height anomaly among the ensembles.  No changes, quite a consistent forecast over the past 2-3 weeks.  These forecasts are doing much better than back in November when they showed ridging in December…that didn’t work out well…

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

21 Responses to A Milder & Drier Week

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    What a diurnal range in temperatures today. 31 this morning, the coldest since January. 60 so far today. We have had 12 days at or over 60 so far in 2016 compared to 10 at this time in 2015. And last year was a record breaker for so many early days over 60. Fascinating. No fog this morning but a few high clouds now. Peace.

  2. GTS1K' says:

    Some frost this morning @ 36.6. I assume the East wind bumped the temp up a bit shortly before 7. High haze and pretty good wind all late morning through now – 52.3.

    I’ll take it!

  3. Anonymous says:

    will we get to enjoy this warmer weather forecast for Wed-Fri out here in Corbett? Or is the East wind sticking around throughout?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Wind dies down tonight, a bit Thursday and Friday but much lighter than today

    • Anonymous says:

      So not so much with the winds dying down….unless you consider going from g50 to g40 dying down? Still mAkes this a cooler than a anticipated day with zero hope of getting out and getting any yard work done!! What’s up for tomorrow & Sat?

  4. Foggy and frosty on the west side of the Sound this morning, but clear and sunny on the east side. Fog on the west side is already breaking up and shouldn’t last long. Looks like a sunny, mild afternoon is in store after the cold start to the day.

  5. jakeinthevalley says:

    Amazingly clear morning out there. For the first time this year I had a 5 mountain morning. Rainier, St. Helens, Adams, Hood and Jefferson from the hills in West Salem.

    It is rare to see Rainer poking out from behind St Helens from my house.

  6. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I woke up this morning to a temp of 39 degrees but everything was covered in heavy frost. I thought something was wrong with my thermometer. Then I looked at the graph. It had dipped to 29 around 6:15 AM, but by 6:30 the wind had picked up and it was 39.

    Now it’s 46. Incredibly quick warming and such a small microclimate. The station just 1/2 mile away was 29 at the same time I was 42.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

  7. My first(and likely my only) freezing temperature of the month this morning: 30.6F. It probably will be my sunniest day of the week, with rain returning Friday and into the weekend.

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    East wind picked up at my house. Was 29 at 6 AM, now it’s 41.

    Weird to see such heavy frost and 41 degrees.

  9. High Desert Mat says:

    A balmy 17.2 this morning when I left the house at 530. Brrrr, not used to it. Should’ve warmed up the car. But hey, its February and what can you expect in central Oregon?

  10. Paul D says:

    Sigh….another warmer than normal winter again….

  11. schmit44 says:

    2/22/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft)
    Low: 44 at Port Orford(0 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:26 at TV RIDGE AM(7050 ft) & Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft) & ANEROID LAKE #2(7400 ft)
    Low: 0 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    DIMLKE (41/0 ) (4726 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.27″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)
    0.23″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)

  12. JJ78259 says:

    First

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