ECMWF Monthly Run

Looks similar to what we’ve been seeing for a few weeks on these maps; higher than normal upper-level heights continue for the foreseeable future in Western Canada.

We are on the edge of that ridging so not a real dry pattern but systems should continue to be mainly weak and we’ll see warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the first couple weeks of March.  Our long slow march through late winter/early spring is here.  Unlikely we’ll see snow below 2,000′ again in this pattern.

The 18z GFS ensemble system supports the general warming pattern starting the middle of next week:

KPDX_2016021818_min_max_16

I was just mentioning to Liana this evening that it appears Sunday or Monday morning could be the only chance for a freezing temperature at PDX this month.  By that time we will have only seen one frost in 6 weeks in Portland!  Strange stuff…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

62 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. Boring Oregon says:

    Get ready for me to say a bunch of stuff countering your global warming claims. If you can say your opinion I can too.

  2. Mark bergal says:

    Good Lord. Two years does not a permanent patttern make. Blob and then el nino changes things for a time. Lets wait a few years before we assume the climate has shifted for good.

  3. G. Carich says:

    Mark:

    “Strange stuff?” Warmest Feb. second year in a row, no frosts in six weeks at mid winter? Global Warming with an El Nin~o.

    Get used to it, folks. Cold is a thing of the past…

    Greg

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Except two years ago when the Willamette Valley saw lows to near zero with 4-6″ of snow before Christmas and 12 to 19″ of snow in Feb….

  4. Peter says:

    Wow, what snark! Farmer Ted, if you really speak French, let’s get together and parler!

  5. jimbo says:

    What a moonrise!

  6. schmit44 says:

    2/21/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & DUNES(120 ft) & KK6DR Depoe Bay(66 ft) & Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 46 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:26 at Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
    Low: 7 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Rome (58/24 ) (4049 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.39″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    0.39″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)

  7. JohnD says:

    As a lifelong Western Oregonian/weather buff, at certain times of the season I’ve always felt that blustery, 50′, showery weather can seem doggone wintry! Especially when underdressed! The last couple of days being like that!

  8. JohnD says:

    As a lifelong Western Oregonian and weather buff, I’ve always felt that at certain times of the season, even blustery, 50′ and showery weather can seem doggone wintry/cold–especially when a bit underdressed! The last couple of days being like that!

  9. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    So this morning’s sunrise was pretty awesome…this whole layer of clouds that wasn’t visible pre-sunrise was lit up in bright pinks and oranges…balanced with the cool white frosty field (low of 30)

  10. Farmer Ted says:

    2 little preppy losers trolling the blog, without a clue to what makes a man, the two wouldn’t make a half man if combined.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Wow. Harsh words for such an illiterate hick. Get lost like everyone did a week ago. How dare Mark post something on skiing. Hillbilly.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Like everyone told u a week ago. Tough guy behind a keyboard. That’s funny. You should go read Marks post about skiing again and the comments. Loser.

    • Paul in Tigard says:

      Time to go stare at the base reflectivity maps for some fun because this is boring…

    • The only losers here are the ones that have to read the constant back and forth bickering from you lot. I’ve been watching this ridiculousness unfold for the past several weeks. I don’t know why mark allows this nonsense to continue. The blog has gone from a great source of WEATHER RELATED information, to a school yard playground full of immature GROWN MEN who I once looked to for all of their DIFFERENT perspectives and updates for their areas or just collective information they had for the general PDX area. I’m disappointed in you boys, young and old.

    • You’re right on, Kassandra.

    • GTS1K' says:

      “preppy losers”???

      Strong words from the Wise Man of Barton.

      Pay heed, losers everywhere: Ye shall be castigated!

      I tremble…..

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Funny stuff, GTS!
      Thanks for the grins.

    • GTS1K' says:

      At least I don’t use insulting terms like “preppy” and, especially, “losers”. I try to keep my comments on a higher lever than TWMoB and The Salem Muse.

      “Preppy”, indeed!

    • GTS1K' says:

      “lever”???

      level…..

      either is higher!

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    33 this morning, so no frost since January. Right now 52 and mostly sunny. .12 out of last nights system. Peace.

  12. For the first time in over a month… frost!

    • 34F low here this morning: Close, but not quite cold enough for frost. Sky is now clouding over with wind picking up, so we’ll be seeing more rain this afternoon. The good thing is that the coming week will be a lot drier and sunnier than the last one. My rainfall total at present is about 6.6 inches for the month.

    • Well that was much “ado” about almost nothing: The system that moved through today gave me all of 0.04 inches! Skies cleared off in the late afternoon, and maybe overnight(if I’m good) we’ll see our first freezing temperature of the month! 🙂

  13. schmit44 says:

    2/21/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at BANDON( 79 ft) & CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft)
    Low: 42 at Port Orford(0 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & Fremont Bridge W(270 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & Yaquina Bridge W(120 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at Mt Hood Meadows(6540 ft)
    Low: 2 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6180 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 40 degrees
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (42/2 ) (6180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.68″ at Roseburg Regiona(525ft)
    0.60″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    0.56″ at MT. WILSON(4002ft)
    0.55″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    0.50″ at ANNIE SPRINGS(6010ft)
    0.42″ at SELDOM CREEK(4875ft)

  14. Longview 400 ft says:

    Currently 31.6 Yikes!

  15. WEATHERDAN says:

    Except for a low of 32 on January 31st we have not had a frost since January 11th. This could be the warmest February on record. And yet Timberline Lodge has 156 inches of snow and the reservoirs should fill nicely. So our Winter has not been so bad. Except right on the valley floor. If we have another hot Summer this year it might be a little uncomfortable but not a serious problem. As for this being the new normal it seems a little too early to tell. However if this is a hot Summer and next Winter is also very mild then yes this might be the new norm. A lot of ifs between now and then and who knows it might be very cold and snowy next Winter, we shall see. As for this week it looks like a nice way to finish Winter. Peace.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Wow, what novel observations…..

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Oh look what just crawled out of the troll hole.

    • GTS1K' says:

      Gee, I had hoped that you and your farmer amigo started your own little circle thang.

      You know – the Salem/Barton Drivel Blog.

      That way you could bore each other to tears. Teddie could deal out his “wisdom” to a kindred spirit while leaving us in – wait for it – Peace.

  16. Mark bergal says:

    Nobody can know with any accuracy that anythumg is the new norm. I find when folks are displeased with somethimg, they generalize that way to get out their frustration. Marcn can be wetter, however, since Feb was so rainy, its possible it wont be this year

  17. I hate it when people say “It’s the new norm”- even though they could be right! 😦 At this time , I’m looking ahead to March and hoping (almost desperately) that it will be a drier and sunnier month than February has been. Statistics aren’t in my favour: 16 of the last 20 years have seen March as being wetter than February where I live. Maybe it’s different in Portland?

  18. Garron 1/3 of a mile from Hillsboro Airport says:

    I’m heading for Vegas in the morning for a week of sun and upper 70’s! Glad that when I head back, it won’t be in the 40’s!

  19. Jason Hougak says:

    We need to build snowpack into April.

    • moosieman says:

      We had virtually no snowpack last year and the hottest summer on record and we survived. We just endured the wettest winter we have ever had. We will be fine this summer with a much better snowpack. Bring on the sun and dry weather!

    • chris s says:

      These kind of posts drive me nuts. If you want to live in a place with sun and warmth in the winter, then move. Why must you complain about people wanting normal winter weather around here? I will never understand complaining about normal weather conditions for the location in which a person lives…. If you dont like it, move. If you cant move, stop complaining.

    • …he says while complaining…

    • moosieman says:

      I for one love snow! But the fact is based upon the models and the time of year we are not gonna get anything more than a morning slush. I would love to have had an extended arctic blast with multiple reloads and lots of precip. But we are almost to March so the next best thing to me is sunshine and warmth. Not endless days of 45-55 degree rain. I love where I live.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      these kind of posts drive me nuts too. Can’t wait to see little ol’ Jas building his snowpack that he needs so desperately. By the way do you think he’s French….. Oui

    • GTS1K' says:

      these kind of posts drive me nuts too

      A short trip, no doubt – I imagine you could just walk…

  20. I haven’t seen a freezing temperature since January 15th. It’s likely this will be my first recorded February without one… Last February we had one day with frost (on the 28th).

  21. Doppler Dave PDX says:

    Mark, PDX did have a low of 32 on February 2nd, so we did achieve one day this month for a freezing temp.

  22. Boring Oregon says:

    On February 1st or second I had a low of 28.

  23. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Low temp of 42 today…at 2:27 this afternoon. After 66 yesterday, today was fairly raw. Still, that low is well above normal.

  24. schmit44 says:

    Fantastic news! Bring on those 60’s for several days 🙂

  25. Mark bergal says:

    This pattern must break eventually, right?

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