ECMWF Monthly Run

February 18, 2016

Looks similar to what we’ve been seeing for a few weeks on these maps; higher than normal upper-level heights continue for the foreseeable future in Western Canada.

We are on the edge of that ridging so not a real dry pattern but systems should continue to be mainly weak and we’ll see warmer than normal temperatures as we head into the first couple weeks of March.  Our long slow march through late winter/early spring is here.  Unlikely we’ll see snow below 2,000′ again in this pattern.

The 18z GFS ensemble system supports the general warming pattern starting the middle of next week:

KPDX_2016021818_min_max_16

I was just mentioning to Liana this evening that it appears Sunday or Monday morning could be the only chance for a freezing temperature at PDX this month.  By that time we will have only seen one frost in 6 weeks in Portland!  Strange stuff…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen