Mild Weather Continues

We’ve been busy the past two days here at FOX12 in a telethon raising money to support the Childrens Cancer Association.  Luckily the weather has been dead so I can focus on other things…Daria and 105.1 The Buzz have been our partners in this endeavor and this was a nice photo moment:

mark_ladies

Moving along, take a look at the 00z GFS ensemble chart…above normal through almost the entire 16 day period.  Remember the blue line is the actual operational model, the red is the average of all the ensembles, and green is the average for the date.

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

This says it’ll be tough to get snow down to Government Camp much in the next two weeks.  The snowpack below 4,000′ will continue to slowly melt.  The 12z ECMWF is a little cooler in the middle of the period, but plenty warm early and later:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

I’m dusting off the fork this evening…

Here are the 4 weekly maps from last night’s run of the ECMWF.  That takes us through the 2nd week of March, showing higher than normal heights through the period:

 

16 Responses to Mild Weather Continues

  1. Dusting off the fork? Well if by “this evening” you mean LATER this evening, I can forgive you. No sign of forks in the 6pm broadcast.

  2. What a tough week for you Mark lol! At least the weather wasn’t too tough with all these mild temps 🙂

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    2012 at least in Salem was far different than 2010 and 2011. During those three years we has 57,58, and 76 days over 80. 2012 was quite a bit warmer than 2010 or 2011. As for 2017 being cold and wet this seems overly dramatic as a forecast. We have had other la ninas in the past without a cold and rainy Summer following. 2007 for example. After all the Summer of 2016 is still several months away. Summer of 2017 is 16 months. We shall see. Peace.

    • I agree: Summer 2017 is too far away to speculate about. However, up in my area summer 2007 wasn’t all that good. I recall having a 7 day stretch of rainy cloudy weather in July. August was okay, but that 7 day period in July happened right around the time we usually are at our driest and warmest, and it soured everybody’s mood about the summer.

    • cphatts says:

      I also agree. Kind of like how earlier this fall most were predicting we were going to have another dry winter due to El Nino. While you can speculate based on percentages, you never really know as there are so many variables at play.

  4. MasterNate says:

    These showers are crazy heavy. Feels like a warm tropical type of monsoonal moisture, very thick.

  5. Sifton says:

    Oh yeah, Daria, I knew I recognized em’!!

  6. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    A tough job but someone has to do it!

  7. Wow- quite a band of heavy showers I ran into just a few minutes ago coming home by bike from shopping! Was soaked to the skin. The radar screen shows a patch of red (heavy echoes) south of my Vancouver heading toward Bellingham. They might get a thunderstorm.

  8. donaleen says:

    Wow. I knew you were smart but you are also CUTE!!!

  9. High Desert Mat says:

    Mark, you dirt dog……jealous.

  10. schmit44 says:

    2/11/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1394 ft)
    Low: 54 at COOS BAY (P365)(89 ft) & CW2527 Florence(46 ft) & North Bend Munic(16 ft) & EW3638 Yachats(33 ft) & DW2405 Tierra De(13 ft) & OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft) & DW1265 Newport(164 ft) & Newport Municipa(161 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & Yaquina Bridge W(120 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at RED BUTTE(4460 ft) & OWYHEE RIDGE(4400 ft)
    Low: 20 at Burns Municipal (4144 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 37 degrees
    Lorella (66/29 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.74″ at K7FU Warrenton(33ft)
    0.68″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    0.63″ at AA7OA Astoria(240ft)
    0.54″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    0.50″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    0.41″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)

  11. Paul D says:

    Poor Mark! Always taking one for the team 😉

  12. Mark bergal says:

    When exactly does the la nina influence kick in?.That last map looks mighty strange

    • JJ78259 says:

      It will be the fall winter spring 2016 2017 use 2010 2011 2012 as your guide. Junuary constant cold and rain clear thru June. I remember the rotting tomato plants that would not grow due to the lack of sun.

    • buffedman says:

      ENSO models indicate gradually returning to neutral.( early summer 2016) with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.

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