Last night was another run of the ECMWF ensembles out to 32 days. That takes us into the first week of March and it looks mild, or at least ridgy with no sign of stormy weather. Winter is over if this theme continues. Well, actually “winter was over around January 5th” will be more accurate if this is the case. This 2nd half of winter should not be a surprise in a strong El Nino season. Generally most action happens the first half of the wet season in these years…not always, but often. For the past few runs I’ve noticed some sort of cool spell around the 20th (give or take a few days), but now on this run the ridge is a bit closer so that has disappeared.
The 12z ECMWF and GFS ensemble charts say the very warm weather coming next week will be followed by near average 850mb
temps beginning around Valentine’s Day.
More on the record warm temperatures coming early next week in a few hours…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen