ECMWF Monthly Run

Last night was another run of the ECMWF ensembles out to 32 days.  That takes us into the first week of March and it looks mild, or at least ridgy with no sign of stormy weather.  Winter is over if this theme continues.  Well, actually “winter was over around January 5th” will be more accurate if this is the case.  This 2nd half of winter should not be a surprise in a strong El Nino season.  Generally most action happens the first half of the wet season in these years…not always, but often.  For the past few runs I’ve noticed some sort of cool spell around the 20th (give or take a few days), but now on this run the ridge is a bit closer so that has disappeared.

Week1:

500za_week1_bg_NA

Week 2

500za_week2_bg_NA

Week 3

500za_week3_bg_NA

Week 4

500za_week4_bg_NA

The 12z ECMWF and GFS ensemble charts say the very warm weather coming next week will be followed by near average 850mb

temps beginning around Valentine’s Day.

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

 

More on the record warm temperatures coming early next week in a few hours…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

10 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. rubusleucodermis says:

    @JERAT416 – Not to worry. A spell of sunny, dry, warm weather is nowhere near as harmful for snowpack as a spell of mild heavy rain with high snow levels.

  2. MasterNate says:

    Spring has sprung!

  3. Boring Oregon says:

    Looks exciting!

  4. Yay…next Sunday-Wednesday is about as much fun as forecasting a big death ridge in late October!

  5. Chris s says:

    Looks like week 2 on the weeklies isn’t meshing real well with operational of gfs, nor the end of the euro this morning… Hmmm..

  6. Adam in SE says:

    Will the upcoming warm spell affect the valleys too, or is it going to be more inversion-like? I see that the freezing level in the Cascades will be up around 13000′!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      That’s the forecast problem…more later

    • JERAT416 says:

      I hope the snow levels don’t stay up too long. I know it’s normal to have it go up and down, and not stay low like some years. Pretty boring weather for sure. On and off rain, on and off warmer, then normal, then a dry day or two. No snow, no arctic blast, no windstorm, etc. Yep dullsville! Thanks for the update mark!

    • Anonymous says:

      The cascades can receive snow well into April and May.

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