ECMWF Monthly Run Maps

3pm Thursday…

Time for another run of the ECMWF out to 32 days.  This one says “winter is over” after the middle of next week.  Yes, I know I’m being dramatic but at least I didn’t put it in the headline for click-bait!

One map for each of the next 4 weeks showing average 500mb height among the 51 ensemble members along with departure from average for this time of the year.  The first week is a little misleading because we have a cold trough over us to start and then a ridge (NEXT weekend) so they average out to near normal.  Basically a change is occurring midway through the week.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Beyond that it’s saying we get ridging through much of February.  Remember, it’s just one extended run of one model, although the message is similar to what it was showing 3 days ago.  At first it’s a full-latitude ridging (dry in California too), then it morphs more into ridging up north and wetter south.

 

Speaking of next week…

With a colder airmass Sunday night and Monday a weak surface low is shown on the WRF-GFS moving down the coastline.  This can be a good setup for snow to very low elevations.  Someone at a business lunch today said they heard it was going to snow Sunday.  Not sure where that came from because we’d be lucky to get sticking snow below 2,000′ on Sunday.  The ECMWF doesn’t show the low and is drier; but it’s something to keep an eye on for Monday.

There is also the possibility of snow/ice in the Gorge the middle of next week IF moisture returns and IF easterly flow sets up.  Not a good possibility for now, but keeping an eye on it.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run Maps

  1. schmit44 says:

    1/29/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:57 at EW0059 Myrtle Po( 174 ft) & Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft)
    Low: 49 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & ELK CREEK(6576 ft) & Mt Hood Meadows(6540 ft)
    Low: 17 at HEREFORD (3599 ft ) & HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft ) & Mt Hood Meadows (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 19 degrees
    Rome (52/33 ) (4049 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.28″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    2.17″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)
    2.12″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    1.70″ at MARION FORKS(2590ft)
    1.58″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    1.51″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)

  2. Jack says:

    I have a question. When watching local newscasts, and occasionally here, there often is reference to “the Gorge” and weather in the Gorge. What area is typically meant by this reference?

    For example, when discussing weather, does a reference to the Gorge typically mean Hood River to the Locks? The Dalles to the Falls? Or does it mean to infer the greater metro area, including Troutdale, Washougal, Camas, and even up to the Willamette. Does it also infer a particular elevation, such as 1000+ ft, or does it mean river level on up?

    On occasion, after referring to the Gorge, the broadcasts will narrow the area, and that narrowing usually includes discussing travel on I-84 and in and around Hood River and the Dalles (and occasionally a reference to Cascade Locks/Bonneville, but this is more rare).

    And the reason I ask is, as all of you well know, there is significant variation in temperature, precip, and winds along this stretch; nothing at all will be happening near the bridges yet head out 50-75 miles to the Locks or HR and it will be blowing hard and fast, or snow as you head east.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The Columbia River Gorge technically begins just east of Troutdale and ends at The Dalles. Or at least when I’m forecasting that’s what I consider “The Gorge”. Troutdale is not in the Gorge and I always tell the newspeople that too. The metro area ends at the Sandy River. It also refers to the entire canyon carved by the Columbia from water level up to whatever elevation the Cascades would be at any one location. I’ve never heard Cascade Locks referred to as “the Locks” either.

  3. It’s too bad for me that February has 29 days and not January: I’ve measured 7.50 inches of rain for the month. I mentioned recently that I didn’t expect to see more than that. Well, we have 2 more days to go with more showers in the forecast! 😦

  4. Joshua Downtown PDX says:

    This isn’t the first time there has been a hint of some real cold weather around Valentine’s Day. Fun to think about.

    • JohnD says:

      Hasn’t there been several model cycles of this already? Mark alluded to the possibility several blog posts ago but has since (apparently) not given any credence to it. But who knows? Given this year of various national (global) weather anomalies, maybe we can add a PNW Valentine’s Day winter storm to the list! We’ll see-right?!

  5. High Desert Mat says:

    If anyone wants to look at some serious eye candy, check out the 18z. One of the better runs I’ve seen since the big ’08 snowmageddon.

    • chris s says:

      Ya… its one for the ages.. definitely one to screen capture and save to share with future generations…. I hope Weatherdan doesn’t see it, lol!!!!!!!!

    • Too bad it’s the least reliable run on one of the less reliable models. Wah wah.

      I wonder what wild calculation threw that guy off that much.

    • Runtmc says:

      Well, thank god he mentioned it, for it afforded you the opportunity to use “wah wah” in your comment. I’m assuming you’ve been sitting on that little gem for some time.

  6. runrain says:

    Big cell over ‘Papoose’ right now. Papoose – can you hear me? Papoose, are you still there? Come in, Papoose!

  7. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    At least the 10 day euro keeps the freezing level relatively low.

  8. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Let’s see if this sunshine can turn into some good convection!

  9. Sapo says:

    Latest WRF gives Portland a trace of snow on Monday morning..with the precipitation arriving around 6-7 AM. Not much precipitation though…very light stuff. If it came around 5 or 6 AM, with heavier precip, that would be more ideal for more snowfall.

  10. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Wettest January in my short time here in BG. 6 years. 6.87″ as of now.

    It will also end as my warmest average low temp. 36.3 as of this morning, and the previous high was 34.9 last year. This after starting the month with 11 days in a row below 32.

    It’ll be interesting to see what February brings. For now it’s looking mild.

  11. runrain says:

    Cool!!

    SO WILL NEED TO WATCH WHETHER WE COULD GET A TOUCH OF
    SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY NARROW TIME
    WINDOW FOR THE ENHANCED STORM CELLS…ROUGHLY 18Z-21Z OR 10 AM TO 1
    PM. TOLLESON /MH

  12. JJ78259 says:

    Great weather to look at those beautiful cars at Barrett Jackson today and tomorrow mid 70s in Scottsdale Arizona

  13. schmit44 says:

    1/28/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:64 at Roseburg Regiona( 525 ft)
    Low: 52 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & EILERTSON MEADOW(5510 ft)
    Low: 9 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    Sisters (US 20 M (55/29 ) (3194 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.83″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    2.51″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    2.50″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    2.33″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    2.30″ at ANNIE SPRINGS(6010ft)
    2.20″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    2.19″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)
    2.11″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    2.03″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)
    2.01″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  14. Paul D says:

    If punxsutawney phil doesn’t see his shadow next Tuesday, I’m gonna stick a fork in him!!

  15. We got our “2nd warmest October ever” two years in a row, can we pull off the same for the “Warmest February Ever” title as well? If it were destined to happen, this IS the kind of upper-level map series that would make it possible…

  16. JohnD says:

    (Yawn) Whatever. Can spring be far behind? ‘Just about done with yet another round of near nothingness.

  17. Farmer Ted says:

    All I can say is what beautiful weather, I love it and I hope you do too!

    • Paul D says:

      I had to get out my sunglasses this afternoon to protect me from that heavy rain that was coming down! 🙂

  18. marinersfan85 says:

    So what you’re saying is

    IT’S GON RAIN!

  19. Mark bergal says:

    Is this the same kind of ridge that dried us out and warmed us up through last summer?

  20. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    I hope it snows!! Anything to keep that big fork away for a little while longer 😉 I noticed that feature on the GFS. If that track were to stay the same it looks like the mid valley could have the best shot at a little snow. GFS had about .13″ in precip falling Sunday evening/night with calm to light northerly winds for most of the time. 925mb temps at 0 and -1, 850mb temps at -4 and -5. Certainly has potential and could be cold enough.

    • W7ENK says:

      -5C won’t cut it any time of year, not even close.
      You should know that…

    • Chris s says:

      It won’t cut it in a onshore flow type pattern that we will have, but we have had snow with those numbers down here in Salem many times under the right setup.. Not sure what the numbers were for March of 2012.,. But that turned out quite well for us down here. 😊

    • Anonymous says:

      Different setup in March 2012. Atmosphere went isothermal and heavier precip brought the snow level down low despite a fairly “warm” 850 temp.

    • Chris s says:

      Because apparently me saying those numbers won’t cut it in the setup we have coming up Sunday requires you telling me it was a different setup…. Might want to read better next time anonymous….. lol

    • Erik you of all people should know that -5C is puh-lenty cold if there’s also a chilly east wind blowing out of the Gorge.

      Otherwise…it’s possible to get a few wet flakes or maybe even sticking at -5C if you have a really really really heavy shower to pull the cold air down to the surface.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      I was thinking that with calm or even slight northerly winds in the valley with moderate precip at night we could pull off a little snow. It’s happened before, and yes it never amounts to much in these situations, but it’s fun to hope for.

  21. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Relentlessly on watch, we are!

%d bloggers like this: