ECMWF Monthly Run Maps

January 28, 2016

3pm Thursday…

Time for another run of the ECMWF out to 32 days.  This one says “winter is over” after the middle of next week.  Yes, I know I’m being dramatic but at least I didn’t put it in the headline for click-bait!

One map for each of the next 4 weeks showing average 500mb height among the 51 ensemble members along with departure from average for this time of the year.  The first week is a little misleading because we have a cold trough over us to start and then a ridge (NEXT weekend) so they average out to near normal.  Basically a change is occurring midway through the week.

500za_week1_bg_NA

Beyond that it’s saying we get ridging through much of February.  Remember, it’s just one extended run of one model, although the message is similar to what it was showing 3 days ago.  At first it’s a full-latitude ridging (dry in California too), then it morphs more into ridging up north and wetter south.

 

Speaking of next week…

With a colder airmass Sunday night and Monday a weak surface low is shown on the WRF-GFS moving down the coastline.  This can be a good setup for snow to very low elevations.  Someone at a business lunch today said they heard it was going to snow Sunday.  Not sure where that came from because we’d be lucky to get sticking snow below 2,000′ on Sunday.  The ECMWF doesn’t show the low and is drier; but it’s something to keep an eye on for Monday.

There is also the possibility of snow/ice in the Gorge the middle of next week IF moisture returns and IF easterly flow sets up.  Not a good possibility for now, but keeping an eye on it.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen