The 2nd half of this week was quite warm, we hit 59 in Portland today and Government Camp was in the 40s the last two days.
But good news for skiing, a cooler airmass moves inland Saturday and temperatures cool. I expect 2-4″, all above Government Camp’s 4000′ elevation. By night ski time the sticking snow level should finally drop down to around 4,000.
Colder temperatures Sunday mean a pretty good weekend for skiing, especially considering I see another round of warm rains Tuesday-Thursday this coming week.
There will be another, cooler, period of 3-5 days starting next Saturday. All models are in agreement with a cool trough moving through the West. Unfortunately they all show mild westerly flow returning in early February. Here are the ECMWF ensembles; the top section shows maximum temperatures for each 12 hour period.
Note the low point around February 1st. I have noticed in cool patterns these numbers are a little low for PDX. But mid 40s sound good. The lower section shows minimums for each 12 hour period. Looks like frost will return for a few days with the cool spell. I’m feeling more confident the 24 degree low in November will be our coldest temperature of this winter…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
FOX 12 Weather Blog 
1/24/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:55 at CW4650 Pendleton(1152 ft)
Low: 47 at Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)
Coldest:
High:23 at Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
Low: 8 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7400 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
CRANE PRAIRIE (40/9 ) (5500 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
0.70″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370ft)
0.70″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
0.62″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
Gosh, it sure was nice today, took the dogs for a walk at River Island Metro where they have made a lot of improvements this past year. It’s not officially open to the public but if you are out this way near Barton Park do stop by and enjoy a walk by the river.
I’m holding out out hope for maybe some snow at the very end of Jan into the beginning of February. I haven’t seen a lot of talk, but the EURO has been pretty consistent showing cooler/colder air and a chance for snow down low. Here’s a link so you all can judge for yourselves: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20America&step=0&relative_archive_date=2015011612¶meter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa&time=2016012412,240,2016020312
The next time it snows in Portland on January 31st, check for my name in the obituaries. Hopefully sometime after January 31, 2100…
Looking at the video from the East coast. Sure glad I don’t have to put up with that mess. A snowstorm of 2-4 inches would be nice but 24-30, no way. That is a segue into our chances of snow next weekend, no way. Maybe down to 1500 ft but none on the Valley floor. I do hope I am wrong because I would like to see some snow before our chances run out. In the meantime mostly cloudy and low 50,s today. Between November 1 and January 31 we usually see around 19 inches of rain. So far this time around we have seen 27.47. So we have a decent shot of hitting 30 inches. It has been a very wet Winter. However Spring is near so drier weather is at hand. Just not over the next few days. Peace.
Sorry Dan…. Wasn’t low 50’s today in Salem, but good try anyway. 2-4 inches is not a snowstorm in any way shape or form as well. And honestly, just quit saying how you hope it snows.. We all know that isn’t true, you hope everyday you wake up its Phoenix weather outside…
Critical Chris, put a cork in it.
Hillbilly Ted, maybe you and Dan should go get a room somewhere, turn the heat way up, zip a couple sleeping bags together and give each other warm hugs. Keep on chuggin’ on Chris. We all see what you posted and its true. I hope its quite the marine layer of a summer, which it probably will be.
Btw, I remember when Dan was saying maybe that models would be wrong all winter with rain amounts. Saying we’d have maybe 10% of what they’re saying. I guess he was way wrong. Looks like we are actually in a temperate climate after all. Not a desert lol.
Conflict.
I, for one, hope Dannie gets his wish – that the weather will be different from day to day and that Spring is near and that things may change from day to day and that Barton is actually in the Twilight Zone and that the agricultural hobbit gets his old man pants on front to back and that peace occurs in Salem – the capital of boredom – and that all’s well that ends well and that the aforementioned Salem gets ten feet of something (your thoughts here) and that rain falls down – not up, but doesn’t dampen Dannie’s dystopic attitude and that we never, ever, ever have to hear about how OLD the guy from Barton is again.
But, I digress. Do these guys have some kind of prison connection, or is it just two peas – you know.
Not to restate the blindingly obvious, but, here’s a revelation for those among you who may have been unconscious for the last month or so: It has been a very wet Winter.
Also, this just in: Spring is near so drier weather is at hand.
Who knew?
Cheers!
Oh, and FT, your ‘hall monitor’ slip is showing again.
Or is it just a ‘birds of a feather’ sort of vibe?
Who knew?
Chris who the hell are you to tell me what I think or want. I really hate it when somebody like you says something like that. Not that I have to justify myself to you about anything. As for it not hitting the low 50,s yesterday it hit 49. That is within the range Mark gives himself a check for on his forecasts. He allows himself 3 degrees and I was off by 1. You are an Idiot Cris. I don’t care if you are offended. I get offended when I read the garbage from you and you little troll friends.
Guess what germantown road I like it where I live. If you don’t like Salem then stay away. Anytime I see the news about the Portland metro area it is because of the homeless camping on the street, or drug needles in the polluted river, or the freak parades, or the gang shootings, or the armed robberies. Well guess what every city has them. Portland also has museums and parks and lots of fine entertainment. But when you trash Salem you show your ignorance. It is a great place to live and has a lot to offer. But if you find it boring then stay away. But if you want to compare Portland to Salem then I guess it it fair to compare Portland to Seattle. Where is the Portland MLB or NFL teams. Salem/Keizer is about 200,000. Portland is about 700,000. You have more of both the good and the bad. I love my city and Portland as well. Hey here’s a piece of advice if you don’t want to be bored. Spend some time on Burnside. Guaranteed to have plenty of excitement.
Possible snow towards the end of the month first of next. Sure hope so running out of winter need something exciting!!
If you haven’t yet you should check out the link to the ECMWF model. It has showed cooler to cold temps with chances for snow to the valley floor the past few runs. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20America&step=0&relative_archive_date=2015011612¶meter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa&time=2016012412,240,2016020312
It’s too warm. 850mb temps need to be -6 to -8 in onshore flow setups for that. Last night and this morning’s runs of GFS and ECMWF have warmed a bit.
Yeah, I noticed that the GFS has changed dramatically over the past 24 hours, but I was hopeful with the 12z EURO showing a low off of the southern Oregon coast at hour 216 with cool temps (certainly not cold, but cool) in place. Since it’s a long way off I’m hopeful that things will improve as time moves on; however, I know how things around here go, and I know that everything must line up just right for snow to happen. I’m desperately trying to keep those forks away 😉 lol
It did look like the 12z operational was a pretty big outlier on the ensembles however, especially in that 29th-1st time frame…
0z tonight is just completely different than 12z this am….. So it does appear it was a major outlier this am.
I did notice that the 00z was cooler again. EURO looks just really odd, but it’s pretty cool. Since the charts I look at are on the global scale I cannot tell if there’s offshore flow or onshore flow with the cool temps, I would guess mostly onshore, but still a ways out.
That last post was sloppy, sorry. I should have said that the link to the EURO that I shared lacks much detail. I see much more detail for the GFS. ALSO: tonight’s EURO run looked weird, just to clarify. I’m done… lol
Beautiful sunrise this morning in San Antonio this morning clear blue skies and high of 72 degrees nice winter day!
1/23/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:56 at HEPP( 311 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft)
Low: 49 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)
Coldest:
High:28 at Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
Low: 20 at CW1102 Wallowa (2946 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 21 degrees
EDEN (50/29 ) (4200 ft )
Heaviest Rainfall:
2.00″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
1.58″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
1.53″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)
1.41″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
1.30″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)
Been so much rain here I just quite measuring it, what’s the point. Days are getting longer and warmer and the greenhouse plants and seedling are basking in the warmth.
I’m starting to second guess my rain guage because it has recorded 7.96in of rain so far this month. That seems a little too high.
Your higher up in elevation right? I don’t think that’s far fetched at all.
Silver Falls Park is twice maybe even thrice as wet as the rest of the area and they are only 1K feet.
I’m a little higher, about 550-600′. It might be right and I hope it is because I want accurate readings.
6.76″ at my location as of last night.
4.98 inches of rainfall here for the month to date. It looks like I’ll have a slightly below average amount for the month of January, unlike Portland or other locations southward.
5.59″ here. It’ll be fairly wet this last week…
The sun rises today in Barrow for the first time since November 18th!
Sunrise today: 1:10 PM
Sunset tonight: 2:08 PM
Tomorrow they gain 37:42
Break out the sunscreen!
sounds like feast of famine
1/22/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:66 at HEPP( 311 ft) & EW5877 Maupin(839 ft)
Low: 51 at BROOKS(187 ft) & LINCON Lincoln C(187 ft) & W7KKE-3 Road’s E(89 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)
Coldest:
High:29 at Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
Low: 20 at UNITY DAM AND BU (3756 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 27 degrees
EW5877 Maupin (66/39 ) (839 ft )
CROOKED RIVER FE (64/37) (2918 ft)
BARNHT (56/29) (894 ft)
Heaviest Rainfall:
1.40″ at BIGELOW CAMP(5130ft)
1.30″ at CW2527 Florence(46ft)
1.17″ at BANDON(79ft)
1.10″ at KING MOUNTAIN(4340ft)
1.09″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
1.08″ at SEVEN MILE CREEK(438ft)
1.04″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
1.04″ at SISKIYOU MTN FIR(3156ft)
1.02″ at EW5112 Jacksonvi(1972ft)
Looking forward the cold coming up – even if brief.