First 70 of the Year

6pm Thursday…

I see North Bend hit 70 degrees this afternoon, as far as I’m aware that’s the first 70 of the season.  Many areas along the Coast made it into the 60s and Eugene was close to 60.  I see a good chunk of the Clackamas county foothills (Beavercreek, Colton) were around 60 as well.

MarkFirst70Oregon

In most of the metro area highs made it into the 50s, kept “down” by the typical January low-level inversion and cool easterly wind.

PLOT_Highs_Metro

January has been an interesting month with respect to temperatures.  We were cold and sunny then cold and cloudy/wet during the first 12 days.  Since that time we’ve turned mild and wet with a split flow much of the time; it appears we’ll stay that way through the end of the month.  Sure, a bit cooler Sunday/Monday and again the last day or two.  What is most notable is the lack of strong systems even though we’ve been wetter than normal.  That is due to the very weak ridging or split-flow.   Basically we’re spreading out the storm action along the coast more than we typically would see.  Sacramento has seen double what they would typically see in January.  San Francisco is running above normal as well.

January will end up a warmer than normal month; like December.  That part of El Nino is working out quite well for us…a very mild winter.  There was debate on whether it would be a “drier” or “wetter” El Nino, and now we know it is/was a wet one!  But I think everyone agreed it would be a mild winter.

Looking ahead, here are the 4 weekly ECMWF maps from the 32 day run last night:  You see the wet/mild pattern over the next week, then the cool troughing the end of the month and first few days of February.  Then ridging seems to pop up close to us again for milder weather.  I sure don’t see snow levels below 2,000′ in the next two weeks so the relatively boring weather pattern will continue.

C

54 Responses to First 70 of the Year

  1. Melinda says:

    This is where I grew up this is rare to see especially in Jan

  2. runrain says:

    Wow. Is it ever nice out there! 58 deg in PDX.

    WK7 – someone is walking around on your buildings helipad right now.

  3. Longview 400 ft says:

    I have been watching a cam from the DC area all afternoon. I think it shows the main train station there, but a plow came through the parking lot, removed an outer track of snow, but when he came by the third time were he had plowed, was almost as white as before, I have not seen him since. What a fun experience for all who do not have to be out working in it!!!

    If snow will not come here, I must watch it where I can. I did actually enjoy watching it snow. I could see the flakes as they danced around before their permanent resting place.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    60.3 at 2:00 PM. Lots of sunshine here as well. .57 overnight but only .06 up to 4:00 PM. Lots of flowers now poking their stalks above ground. Feels like mid February today. Looks like 40-45 for a couple of days and maybe some snow in the foothills at the end of the month. Maybe as low as Sunset summit. But no snow down here. Peace.

    • Salem troller says:

      Is that for sure Dan? No snow there at the end of the month? Wow, you should be a meteorologist with those kind of forecasts and clairvoyance.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      What is wrong with you Salem Troller!!! He is a meteorologist, as a matter of fact, he’s a chief meteorologist, he’s Weatherdan!!! If he says no snow, that means now snow ya trolling idiot. And Salem is just a suburb of Portland in case you didn’t know.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Dave, Troutdale is a suburb of trailer park.

    • Salem troller says:

      You got that right Dave. Salem is a bigger Woodburn.

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      Salem is a suburb of Woodburn now if you ask me….

    • Salem troller says:

      Dave Salem called, they want they’re long haired mullet wearing trasher back.

    • Salem troller says:

      *their

    • Dave_in_Troutdale says:

      HD Mat, yes, I live in a trailer. Unlike you I don’t suck men off for mortgage money. I am kind of off my meds right now, so don’t mess with me you punk. I’ll definitely f you up … Now get back to tickling your tonsils with those iron pipes… 🙂

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Wow! If you all are ever going to get out of those trailers and join the civilized society try and remember and practice what WEATHERDAN ends his post with:

      PEACE!

    • W7ENK says:

      Wow…

      Cleanup on aisle 22!! 😯

  5. 2.84″ total measured and the storm is over. Probably closer to 2.95″ storm total because I missed measuring the first bit. Odds are it’s going to be the wettest storm of the season for me. (The big soaker that drenched PDX last month sent most of its energy south and wasn’t that big an event for me.)

  6. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    Take a look at the 12Z euro. Continuing to show a block beginning to set up in about 9 days.

  7. JohnD says:

    ‘Just got a call from my daughter while she is at one of the airports in DC. She is on her way to Ethiopia for 2 weeks of work with Habitat for Humanity. Lots of flights were being preemptively cancelled but her flight was thankfully going to make it out. Timing is everything. I am looking forward to following the storm. Vicarious excitement is better than none at all I guess.

    • Dave in South Salem (500') says:

      Taking off in a snow storm is no big deal as long as the plane is there and they can plow the runways. Its the landing that is a problem.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      Easy for you to say Dave, just like Corvairs them things aren’t safe at any speed!

  8. W7ENK says:

    I wonder if Muscle man Cantore will provide us with any new gems from this storm back East?

  9. I saw my first 50F-plus daily maximum temperature for the year (52F), and it stayed mild overnight in the rain (still around 50F). Yeah, pretty boring all right… well, at least I’m still pretty young compared to some of the other writers here! 🙂

    • Nearly 3″ of rain in a single storm is many things but I can’t call it “boring”. I think I was squarely in the epicenter of the atmospheric river; I got significantly more rain at my house than was measured at SeaTac.

  10. Jackfrost says:

    Oops I posted under a name I use for most blogs. Wunderground is completely unusable right now.

    I use it for their radar and almanac but it’s completely bogged down. Not sure if it’s winter storm related or something else entirely.

  11. Sortinghat says:

    Not sure if it’s related to the storm or something else going on but Wunderground site is completely unusable right now.

  12. muxpux (Longview) says:

    It’s felt pretty normal to me. Wet, a few icy mornings, even days where the frost in the shade didn’t melt, some wind, even had less than 2″ of snow last almost a whole week, I watched 2 seahawks games while it snowed. Can’t call it a bust, can’t call it great. Overall, pretty dang typical if you ask me.

  13. Piter says:

    In my opinion, statistical forecasts for the coming months and years are very worrying.

  14. schmit44 says:

    1/21/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at North Bend Munic( 16 ft)
    Low: 56 at EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at WOLF CREEK(5630 ft) & ANTELOPE(6460 ft)
    Low: 23 at HARL BUTTE (6071 ft ) & ELK CREEK (6576 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    MEDFORD (67/38 ) (1339 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.51″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)
    2.54″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    1.72″ at OCNSID Oceanside(22ft)

  15. rubusleucodermis says:

    Quite the soaker up this way. Now at 2.61″ in the past 24 hours. Storm total will probably go over 3″.

  16. chiefWright (Marquam 350') says:

    Hi temp here was 58 degF on the gauge pole (20′ above ground, exposed), and 55 degF under cover (5′ above ground, shaded)

  17. Chris s says:

    Mark I think the 0z might disagree with your 2000ft snow level by a little bit… Maybe closer to 1000ft..??? At least it appears to my untrained eyes.. Lol:-)

  18. Farmer Ted says:

    I am an older man, just hit 64 yesterday and of course had to play that Beatles song, I waited an entire adult lifetime for this day to play this song and feel what it is to be 64. Well just like everyone I suppose it just felt much like the day before.

    But I did want to comment on Mark’s post about a “relatively boring weather pattern will continue.” The weather is just the frosting on our cake and whatever flavor it is appreciate what frosting mother nature wants to paint, I believe that we do not have the capacity to understand the complexities and subtle beauty that she has to offer each and every day.

    • runrain says:

      Amen! Well said.

      I just turned 60 this year but still running half marathons. You’re only as old as you feel (and act!)

    • GTS1K' says:

      Oho,,young Teddie. I had your age nailed a couple of weeks ago. Never mind that you’re younger than I am, you sound as if you’re 80 and ready for the grave and you’ve just dictated your epitaph. Accept whatever Gaia sends your way – just roll up your sleeve and bend over.

      Runrain says it all.

    • Boydo3 N. Albany says:

      Wow, maybe we should start and old timers club. Anybody got some DMSO? Got ya beat by a couple weeks, Ted..

    • somebody hand me my walking cane….

    • MasterNate says:

      How about a round of Ensure for all of you egg timers huh?

    • W7ENK says:

      Happy belated birthday, fellow Januarian. I have some catching up to do, but I’m more than half way to you… barely. 😉

    • JJ78259 says:

      We see our first 80 degree reading next week the frosting is looking good. Will be in Scottsdale for Barrett Jackson next weekend hopefully it will nice there also. Looking at all those great cars gets me rev’d up!

    • runrain says:

      We used to have the Flab 5 group here. Boring Larry and I are charter members. Where are the rest of you?

      Heavy snow is expected to start earlier in DC than planned. Should be hitting any minute now. I noticed the flights to Portland from Charlotte and DC have been cancelled. NY and Boston flights still appear to be on schedule.

  19. JJ78259 says:

    Made it out Philadelphia tonight a day earlier than scheduled already 3500 flights canceled for the upcoming snow storm. 36 inches is a good snow depth. We flew paralleling the big storm to Houston lots of rough air and lots of lightning going off below. Awesome sight! At least I got out could have been a long weekend in a hotel room in a fricken blizzard! I guess the snow lovers on the blog would have been in Heaven.

  20. runrain says:

    Wonder if the Super Bowl in San Francisco is going to be an El Nino washout.

    Fun day ahead tomorrow in the mid-Atlantic states. I’ll be watching.

  21. Mark bergal says:

    Does this mild winter portend another warm spring and hot summer or is the pattern reversing?

    • No. To that end some analogs indicate a cool wetter spring/summer.

      I’m hedging on “The Blob” finally going away giving us a cooler/wetter spring and and average summer.

  22. Boydo3 N. Albany says:

    But the 12Z euro does show a blocking ridge setup with pretty cool temps around the end of the month. At least we are getting a fair snow pack.

  23. GTS1K' says:

    I know I’m bored with the weather – and so are my relatives…

  24. Those week 3 and 4 maps look like especially warm temps (relative to average) for the Intermountain West, southeastern BC and southern Alberta. Mild for the west side of the Cascades, but probably much more dramatic departures east side.

  25. rubusleucodermis says:

    1.22″ fell during the day today, now at 2.35″ and counting.

    Oh, and … first!

%d bloggers like this: