First 70 of the Year

January 21, 2016

6pm Thursday…

I see North Bend hit 70 degrees this afternoon, as far as I’m aware that’s the first 70 of the season.  Many areas along the Coast made it into the 60s and Eugene was close to 60.  I see a good chunk of the Clackamas county foothills (Beavercreek, Colton) were around 60 as well.

MarkFirst70Oregon

In most of the metro area highs made it into the 50s, kept “down” by the typical January low-level inversion and cool easterly wind.

PLOT_Highs_Metro

January has been an interesting month with respect to temperatures.  We were cold and sunny then cold and cloudy/wet during the first 12 days.  Since that time we’ve turned mild and wet with a split flow much of the time; it appears we’ll stay that way through the end of the month.  Sure, a bit cooler Sunday/Monday and again the last day or two.  What is most notable is the lack of strong systems even though we’ve been wetter than normal.  That is due to the very weak ridging or split-flow.   Basically we’re spreading out the storm action along the coast more than we typically would see.  Sacramento has seen double what they would typically see in January.  San Francisco is running above normal as well.

January will end up a warmer than normal month; like December.  That part of El Nino is working out quite well for us…a very mild winter.  There was debate on whether it would be a “drier” or “wetter” El Nino, and now we know it is/was a wet one!  But I think everyone agreed it would be a mild winter.

Looking ahead, here are the 4 weekly ECMWF maps from the 32 day run last night:  You see the wet/mild pattern over the next week, then the cool troughing the end of the month and first few days of February.  Then ridging seems to pop up close to us again for milder weather.  I sure don’t see snow levels below 2,000′ in the next two weeks so the relatively boring weather pattern will continue.

C