100″ on Mt. Hood; Big Ski Day Wednesday!

We passed the 100″ snow base threshold at both Timberline and Mt. Hood Meadows today…quite a change from last year!


I think Meadows only hit around 50″ last winter/spring.  As of now it looks like about 10-11″ new snow have fallen up above 4,500′.  With strong westerly flow this evening/tonight I expect another 8-12″ to fall during the night.  A colder airmass moves in with the westerly wind so Wednesday sure looks like a good powder day to me!  I put out a Powder Alert for Skibowl last night.  If you’re a skier/snowboarder you might want to subscribe to that here.


The January rain total also reached a benchmark here in Portland today.  We’ve now seen MORE than our typical January rain…with 11 days still to go.  It’s obvious now it’ll be a much wetter than normal January.  Once again, this El Nino is behaving like 1982-83 here in the Pacific Northwest.   Not to bring anyone down, but February and March were extremely wet that year as well.  On the positive side, I’m pretty sure the soil has recovered from the dry spell last summer…

Looking ahead, the wet pattern does continue the rest of this month, although I don’t see any flooding-type situation.  Our storms just aren’t that strong because of some minor splitting.  Plenty of rain but no huge soakers and no windstorms.  That said, the GFS is hinting at a wetter system next week.  Take a gander at the latest meteogram…looks warm and wet!



Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen




52 Responses to 100″ on Mt. Hood; Big Ski Day Wednesday!

  1. Anonymous says:

    Winds are currently gusting to 75 mph at Vista House and 59 at the Corbett School. Don’t remember hearing anything about another wind event coming in. Is this gonna be part of the coming and going of the East winds. Or is this gonna last a while? Hoping for a calm weekend to sedimentary work done….tired of being trapped inside

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    In the last month we have gained 36 minutes of daylight. In the next month, we will gain 1 hours and 25 minutes…spring is coming and we gain more and more daylight quickly.

  3. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    It’s currently 14 degrees warmer at Larch Mountain in Washington than it is here. 48 here, 62 at Larch.


  4. Anonymous says:

    Winds currently gusting to around 75 mph at Vista House and 59 at the school….don’t remember hearing anything about another wind event for today and beyond! Is this just part of the recent on again off again East winds? Or is this sticking around for while? Specifically would like to know if this weekend is gonna be windy in the gorge? Or perhaps a break to get out and deal with a burn pile or two? 😁

  5. Benjamin (West Salem) says:

    FYI. The models, in particular the GFS, have been showing for some time now a cooler/colder pattern at the very end of January and beginning of February. I don’t need people to tell me that it currently looks like cold rain, because I know that; however, I’m keeping an eye on it since it’s the best the models have looked for cold weather in about a month. Here’s the GFS ens link: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

  6. JohnD says:

    Weather surfing around….it seems like virtually the entire universe is currently in a winter weather pattern. Uhhhh except, of course, we all know where. Gotta love it…

  7. W7ENK says:

    I don’t particularly appreciate being lied to…

    • Forecast models had me for .64″ to 1.28″ for this event. The high side of that range has already been exceeded, with what looks like plenty more on the way. At this stage, I’m expecting at least 2″ from this event and maybe even 3″.

      Quack, quack, quack!

    • Sapo says:

      Huh, strange..Dry here until 3 PM yesterday then just spotty showers, today has been completely dry.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      My observation has been that these systems have been wetter and stronger than predicted. Kinda opposite of most El Nino winters and usual split flow patterns.

  8. Pouring like crazy here. 1.13″ since 10:30 last night, and it had been raining for an hour or so before I thought to empty the gauge then.

    And some of it is getting inside 😦 .

  9. schmit44 says:

    1/20/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:61 at EW3638 Yachats( 33 ft)
    Low: 51 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    High:28 at ANEROID LAKE #2(7400 ft) & SNOW MOUNTAIN(6230 ft) & ANTELOPE(6460 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6180 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (37/8 ) (6180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.30″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    1.30″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    1.20″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    1.15″ at TIDEWATER(2035ft)
    1.01″ at SOUTH FORK(2257ft)
    1.00″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370ft)
    0.99″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    0.94″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  10. JohnD says:

    Is anyone following the winter storm currently brewing for the East Coast? Obviously with Pacific origins and very “El Nino’ish””! Washington DC appears to be the potential bullseye this weekend with copious snow! NYC and Boston may miss most of the event before the storm goes out to sea.

    Here’s hoping for something interesting in our region by month end!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Looks real mild and wet at times through early February.

    • mike(wilsonville) says:

      mild is nice. I was driving around Burnside and 21st yesterday and I saw a cherry blossom starting to bloom.

    • W7ENK says:

      I can absolutely guarantee you it will not snow in Portland on January 31st. I was born on the 31st of January and it snowed some on that day, but in all the years I’ve been alive since, it has never snowed here on my birthday, despite all my deepest, most sincere and most genuine of wishes.

      I can also guarantee you that the next time it snows in Portland on January 31st will be on the one that immediately follows my death, because that’s the way this Universe works. If everything goes according to plan, that won’t be for another 85 years yet, at least.

    • runrain says:

      Interesting following Winter Storm Jonas. Anybody know where Cantori will be stationed? At least we can live vicariously with the east coast. They’re thinking Snomagedon II.

    • So W7ENK, let me guess… you are turning 26 on January 31st? Or maybe 27? 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      Add a decade and you’re spot on.

    • mike(wilsonville) says:

      Cantori will be spotted between 2 buildings that create a wind tunnel. I used to live in Florida and they would always stand between the buildings during a hurricane where the wind would be blowing really hard. I look out of my house an hour away and the leaves aren’t even moving. Gotta have those ratings ya know. Must be why they no have names for the winter storms too.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Shaping up like ’82-83, huh? That’s bad news for those of us who enjoy the warm Summer sunshine. According to my parents, August 1983 saw rain every single day but 3, and those three days were overcast. Turns out, 1983 was one of the — if not THE coolest and wettest Summer on record for PDX… worse than 2010 and 2011.

    This unfortunately aligns with what I was saying last week. We may have to put WeatherDan on suicide watch, and perhaps a few others as well?

    • W7ENK says:

      Moderation? That’s cool… :-/

    • W7ENK says:

      Because not even WordPress liked what I had to say.

      Another thing to mention with a potential Summer 1983 redux would be a severe lack of SE flow, and thus no thunderstorms in our neck of the woods, either. 😦

    • Maybe some consolation if this analogy holds up. 1983 ended up pretty good with some big east winds and snow/arctic cold. 🙂

    • Well, if 2016 has a bummer summer, in 2011 I discovered some favorite camping spots in the eastern Cascades where I was able to enjoy sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s when Seattle was socked in with endless overcast and drizzle. I’ll just enjoy revisiting them. And I won’t miss the lousy air quality from forest fire smoke.

    • JJ78259 says:

      83 ahh I remember that well. Over the two previous years I worked on restoring a 70 1/2 Z/28 Camaro and wanted some Dry Weather to Drive it in. Cruising on 82nd at that time was fun for a 22 year old. The spring was a wash out and summer was horrible!

    • KPTV Weather Troll says:

      W7ENK, I love you!

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry, I’m taken.

    • Farmer Ted says:

      I remember 1983 well, we had a heat way in late May with temps around 100 degrees during the last few days of that month and then the weather changed drastically. As a farmer we were not able to put up hay until August and during late July we had the most awesome thunderstorms that lasted throughout the night. A summer I will never forget.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      I am calling for an average Summer this year. I do not foresee a Bummer Summer at all. Still cooler than the last 3 Summer but better than 2010 or 2011. More like 2012. But we shall see. As for 1983 it was a cool one. But not as bad as Seattle where they usually have crummy Summers anyway. As for 1983 it started off as not too bad. The last 18 days of April were all over 60 and 6 were over 70. May had 13 days over 70 and 8 days over 80 with a maximum of 101 degrees. The highest temperature ever for may. June had 12 days with rain. It still reached 70 or more 19 times and had our 2nd TRW of the Summer. July had 12 days with rain but also 4 days with thunder. In July all but 2 days reached 70 and 10 reached at least 80. August started out hot. Of the first 27 days 24 reached at least 80. And every day in August reached at least 70. When the State fair started the heat and sun went away and we had only 5 additional days over 80 in September. October had 6 days with precipitation. Overall Summer was cooler and wetter than normal and it was the last time we have had a Summer as cold as it was. I do not see a repeat of that in 2016 for several reasons including climate change. However Summer is several months away so we shall see. What I notice on this blog are the posters with a cool bias. To them everything means a cold Summer. Yes they were even on this blog the last 3 Springs posting about record cold Summers that we were going to have in 2013, 2014, and 2015. Go back and look, they are a hoot. In the mean time enjoy our dry and mild afternoon. Only .06 in the last 24 hours. Peace.

  12. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    One year ago it was a virtually snow less hike up to the top of Silver Star.

    This year, the summit is no doubt under several feet of snow!

    • I didn’t get up there last winter but apparently Hurricane Ridge was bare most of the winter. There’s 4 to 5 feet of snow on the ground there now. Would expect a similar depth at Silver Star.

  13. That 00z ECMWF though 😮 …. Let’s hope we see more of that with 12z runs today.

  14. schmit44 says:

    1/19/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:57 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft) & EW6892 Medford(1414 ft)
    Low: 48 at Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft) & Bullards Bridge(23 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft) & EW6892 Medford(1414 ft)

    High:26 at Mt Hood Meadows(6540 ft)
    Low: 20 at Rim (7050 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 21 degrees
    ZIM (52/31 ) (4089 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.14″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    1.96″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    1.90″ at BROOKINGS(79ft)
    1.90″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    1.86″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.82″ at CW2527 Florence(46ft)

  15. Jesse-SW Portland Suburbs says:

    Loving the 1982-83 analog Mark.

    Continued wet through the early spring, followed by a great summer that year with lots of cool weather and almost no 90 degree days (aside from the freak 100 at the end of May 1983).

    Then of course the epic arctic blast and ice storm before Christmas 1983 the following winter. In fact the next three winters after 82-83 all had something to offer.

    • Jesse, thanks to you (and the others) who responded to my comment about the weather in 1983. I think it depends a lot on just where you live. I do recall that spring being wet up here, and the heat wave in late May ’83 was really something for me to remember.(95F on the 29th). But we had a really wet June and July in my area – probably due to the storm track. August wasn’t bad. Then that “epic arctic blast” in December was impressive, but we had no ice storm here. Definetly the next winters in the mid-80’s were good, though. 😉

  16. G. Carich says:

    Snowing high up. Soon, not even that. ’82-’83 was a bad snow pack-only high. Summer was “green tomato, so it didn’t matter. We didn’t need the runoff like we do now. The summers have been so bloody hot as of late, it will be interesting to see if there is a repeat after 30+years. As for me, it would be OK. I’m sick of the heat the last 4 years.

  17. Boring Oregon says:

    Alright, I’m ready for spring with the birds and the bees!

  18. I hope this year’s El nino doesn’t follow the 1982-83 script too closely, because the summer that year (at least where I live) was pretty lousy: I had my warmest temperatures in late May 1983!

  19. Farmer Ted says:

    “One must know the so-called ‘lesson of a downpour.’ A man, caught in a sudden rain en route, dashes along the road not to get wet or drenched. Once one takes it for granted that in rain he naturally gets wet, he can be in a tranquil frame of mind even when soaked to the skin. This lesson applies to everything.”

    ~Yamamoto Tsunetomo~

  20. High Desert Mat says:

    Thanks Mark, you’re the best met in town and we all realm y appreciate your interest and enthusiasm when it comes to weather.

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