ECMWF Monthly Run

January 14, 2016

10pm Thursday…

The usual maps…from the Wednesday night 32 day run of the ECMWF.  One map for each of the next 4 weeks.  They show the same pattern continuing for the next month.  That’s above average 500mb heights (ridging) to our northeast and below normal heights (troughing) to our west.  Theoretically this pattern tends to split storms and give us less rain than normal.  In this case that troughing is pretty close (especially in the first week or so) so we appear to still get plenty of rain, but warmer than average temps most likely with no freezes in sight.  Two days ago I turned on my outdoor faucets/water lines that my chickens/ducks use.  So I’m hoping we don’t get below about 28 again or at least for a couple weeks…we’ll see.

This El Nino seems to be tracking more like ’82-83 than the other real strong event ’97-98.    Take a look at rain anomaly December 82 & 97 vs. this past December.

What happened in January and February those two big years was the same though…mild and wet.  The temperature anomaly:

jan_feb_temps_all3

and the precipitation anomaly? Wetter all along the West Coast with the wettest action shifting down into northern/central California compared to now:

jan_feb_83_98

I went through the daily temps for Jan/Feb both those years and it was quite mild.  If our weather tracks similar to those winters then we’ve seen our coldest/snowiest weather of the winter already.  It is obvious that the pattern remains very mild through the rest of this month at least.  My gut feeling is the 1.1″ of snow in Portland so far this winter could be it for the season.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen