ECMWF Weekly Maps

For the geeks only…

Sorry, forgot to post these yesterday.  4 weekly maps of average 500 millibar height and anomaly from the ECMWF monthly run.  This is always all the ensembles averaged together.  Model seems to prefer some sort of ridging just to our north and northeast through early February.  Below normal heights to the south over the southern USA most of the time too.  This is somewhat similar to the current pattern with weak systems and lots of offshore flow.  Keep in mind that at one point in late November it looked like this for December too; just the usual disclaimer.

7 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. Can I get a sad trombone?

    At least Fall – Early Winter was a raucous affair.

  2. Sapo says:

    Not about the maps, but just a thought in general…

    Does anyone agree that the NWS over-agressively forecasts freezing rain for the metro area? In the past week, we’ve had at least two or three “chance rain/freezing rain” forecasts and we didn’t get any. For tonight/tomorrow they have a “chance rain/freezing rain” even though temperatures will probably be above freezing when precip arrives. They have another “chance rain/freezing rain” forecast for Monday…why do they do that? Never happens but they still forecast it

    • My guess would be the multitude of micro climates that the metro area has. Will most folks see freezing rain? Probably not but they have to account for the entire metro area and there is enough variability that they can’t dismiss the chances. We go from almost see level to 1000’+ and there are plenty of areas where cold air can pool up and result in freezing rain for folks in those areas.

      Just because you don’t see it doesn’t mean that there aren’t pockets of it around the metro.

    • JackFrost says:

      It’s called corporate think tanks. Despite the NWS being government ran it still has that kind of mentality in the people at the top.

      Somebody at the top makes some weird decision regarding how marginal weather events are handled/issued and the rest of the crew agrees because they either don’t know any better and/or they don’t want to be the ones that stand out if their suggestion is bad.

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    Still foggy here. Only 39 at 1:00 PM. We are about half way through meteorological Winter and so far I would give it a B-. I don’t see any chance for cold weather out through the 3rd week of January. If we have no cold air by the 8th of February we are unlikely to see any this Winter. But a lot can happen in just one month. Peace.

  4. High Desert Mat says:

    Looks vert Nino ish to me.

    First!

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