A Quiet Wednesday Evening

10pm Wednesday…

For the first time since last Friday there isn’t much weather action either right now or in the next few days.

Temperatures warmed further today:

PLOT_Highs_Metro

The “cold” airmass pouring out of the Gorge has pretty much played itself out.  Troutdale got up to 42 degrees.  The pressure gradient has dropped to under 4 millibars.  Easterly wind is only gusting around 30-40 mph in Corbett and Crown Point…just a typical breezy winter day there.

Showers have moved into the metro area this evening as a weak disturbance moves north through Oregon.  Obviously we’re done with the freezing rain talk because of the milder temperatures.

It appears high pressure and split flow is the story through the foreseeable future.  California will see far more rain in the next 10 days than Oregon.  These numbers are from the morning ECMWF run:

MarkRain_DecemberCalifornia

I don’t think the next week will be TOTALLY dry.  In fact models have shown some sort of surface low approaching Oregon and SW Washington Saturday.  As always each model and each run is a bit different, but I’m not too excited by what I see.  The ECMWF (morning run) have a few sprinkles making it to the metro area.  The evening WRF-GFS run has a bit more rain, but still only around a quarter of an inch.  In this El Nino winter pattern, it’s quite possible models are overdoing the amount of energy (in the form of clouds/rain) makes it in here…we’ll see.  IF plenty of moisture makes it inland, I’m quite confident we’ll see freezing rain/snow in the Gorge.

The cold surface high east of the Cascades weakens a bit more tomorrow, then shows a bit more life Friday and Saturday.  It’ll be nothing like the real cold east wind we’ve seen over the past 5-6 days, but temperatures may drop a few degrees Saturday-Monday as a result.  Not just in the Gorge but also in the metro area.

Of course if a stronger system were to move in Saturday AND temperatures were cold enough we could see freezing rain move out of the Gorge and into the metro area.  But as of now, neither the precipitation or cold air is screaming “ICE STORM!” to me.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

41 Responses to A Quiet Wednesday Evening

  1. buffedman says:

    Jan-Feb-Mar 2017

  2. Farmer Ted says:

    Light freezing rain this morning and 30 degrees after hitting 53 yesterday afternoon.

  3. This is probably the most active first half of winter the PNW has seen in many years, AND it’s in a strong El Nino year! Think about it, since Thanksgiving we’ve had a Gorge ice storm, Portland flooding, mudslides, a tornado, a windstorm, several snow events in the Gorge, and even one snow/ice event in Portland. Sure, no big arctic blast or deep snow west of the Cascades. But by our climate’s standards I think the past 6 weeks deserve a solid B+ grade in terms of overall weather action, or maybe A- if you grade on an ‘El Nino curve.’

    Plus our mountains got plenty of snow and an excellent Christmas ski season, and California’s getting the rain it needs. All of this means that we can enjoy mild springlike weather in February and March guilt-free this season, rather than feeling desperate for rain and snow at the last possible opportunity.

  4. schmit44 says:

    1/7/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:56 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & DUNES(120 ft)
    Low: 48 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Gold Beach(16 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:24 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 8 at CW9027 Ukiah (3415 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    LITTLE BUTTE CRE (53/25 ) (1702 ft )
    COLGATE (48/20) (3231 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.82″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.50″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    0.31″ at SISKIYOU MTN FIR(3156ft)

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    Another “Dul”uary taking shape. Third in a row makes me think we’re gonna get hammered during January 2017 with a strong La Niña!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      There you are Jason. Nice to have you back. Don’t worry about January, later this month and early February we will get hit by an arctic blast of epic proportions. I have my sources. I’m going with my gut as well and to further my prognostications, there will be record east wind speeds as well.

      In the meantime, GO HAWKS!!!!!!!!. CRUSH THOSE VIKINGS!!!!

    • Boring Oregon says:

      Yeah! Go Hawks! I heard it could be the coldest game ever recorded hopefully that doesn’t ruin it for us.

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      No. The media is running with this story like crazy. To be fair, there’s been just 6 games where the temp at kickoff was below zero, including the Giants/Packers Nfc championship game in 08 with a temp of -4. Of course the ice bowl in 67 kicked off at -13. Temp should be right around zero and so far winds are looking rather light.

    • Pete says:

      Good stuff here from the NWS on cold football games: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grb&storyid=99351

  6. Sis Childs says:

    I really love your blog posts. As a teacher in Corbett, they are so helpful. So far, right on the money. Sure hope your rosier picture comes true and we don’t miss any more school. Thanks so much Mark!

  7. Sapo says:

    I liked the look of the 12z GFS really long range…lol

  8. Rochelle says:

    Fingers crossed for Saturday, Mark!!!

    • W7ENK says:

      Saturday’s already dead, you can untangle those fingers now before they start cramping. :-/

    • Sapo says:

      Lol^…yep looking too warm on Saturday and some models hardly give us any precipitation anyway..doesn’t look like much will make it here.

      The NOAA still has a chance of zr/snow on Friday night/Saturday. Maybe they’re trying to be a little aggressive since they kind of missed the last one?

    • Jason Hougak says:

      My wife’s name is also Rochelle and she gives me a hard time being on the blog, like I’m some kinda nerd… I finally caught ya!!! 😆

  9. JohnD says:

    Seems like we went from fun to dud in a hurry–and for the foreseeable. The typical Portland doldrums of mid winter have now ensued. Always tough to get through: More than another month to go in the theoretical winter weather window but nothing very interesting in sight upstream. Time to climb some walls.

  10. JJ78259 says:

    Nice lower 70s in Spurs land for the next couple of days. Not quite Weather Dan 80s yet but will be nice. Heading to Grand Prairie, Edmonton and Calgary Alberta next week to look for fake cold not sure if I will find any.

  11. A foggy morning here. No wind, nothing exciting over the next few days. Well, it’s pretty evident that the usual El Nino pattern has arrived. Oh well, at least we have a snowpack on the mountains this time around.

  12. Farmer Ted says:

    Sorry most of you are all bummed, that’s a bummer!

  13. W7ENK says:

    Sad to see Saturday’s chance for snow evaporate like that. The measly one inch I got on Sunday was barely enough to keep the hope alive, but it didn’t scratch that itch. Now it appears we enter the dry phase of El Niño, which likely means our chances for snow this winter are pretty much over at this point. But who knows, maybe we’ll get another surprise?

    • I’ve yet to see more than flakes in the air at my place this season, and last season the only snow event was a dusting that was barely enough to whiten the lawns. There was a few inches in 2013 (which melted quickly, as it came at the tail end of an arctic outbreak). 2012 was the last major snowstorm for me.

      I’m not ready to throw in the towel yet (a lot can happen between now and President’s Day weekend), but I also wouldn’t be surprised if I have to wait until another season to see a big lowland snow event.

      At least next winter is shaping up to be a neutral to negative ENSO index; our odds for such things are much better in such years. Particularly the neutral years, which have historically had the highest odds of major lowland snow events.

    • But hey, it could be worse. Washington, DC and Philadelphia have yet to see any snow at all this year.

  14. Jake-(Gresham) says:

    Well things finally cleared up here in Gresham / Fairview in the neighborhoods yesterday. I was really hoping Saturday brought us some snow because this ice wasn’t all that fun; but it’s the nature of the Pacific ocean to tease just so. 😛

  15. marinersfan85 says:

    Saturday looks like a non event. As usual. So close yet so far.

  16. schmit44 says:

    1/6/2016 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:56 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft)
    Low: 47 at Port Orford(0 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:24 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 12 at CW9027 Ukiah (3415 ft ) & Riley (US 20 MP (4225 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 27 degrees
    CW9027 Ukiah (39/12 ) (3415 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.56″ at North Bend Munic(16ft)
    0.49″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    0.37″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  17. Warm Bias!!!! Oh wait, no. Reality. Sorry Jesse!!

  18. Diana F. says:

    Well I’m bummed that Saturday looks like a non-event! : (

  19. John Liu says:

    School children everywhere are disappointed.

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