ECMWF Monthly Run

Looks like ridging or split flow is here for the next 2 weeks.  Definitely an “El Nino” look.  We’ll see about the 2nd half of January.  These are ECMWF weekly 500mb height average maps from last night’s 45 day run.  Warmer colors are heights higher than normal (ridging), cooler colors heights lower than normal (troughing).  This is an average of all 51 ensemble members:

9 Responses to ECMWF Monthly Run

  1. W7ENK says:

    With that much amplification and breakup of the PV, this almost looks like a(n) SSW event to me. Those usually don’t pay out for us here in the PNW lowlands, at least not anymore…

  2. JohnD says:

    Who knows if the ECMWF will verify or not?! Such an interesting season so far. Also, will the imminent “fake cold” pattern migrate into one with a greater punch–and eventual transitional effects?
    ‘Sure was nice seeing snow covered rooftops and trees just above downtown today !

  3. Looks like El Niño is here! Hopefully after our break from rain/snow the next week or so, that California storm track will occasionally slug some storm leftovers up our way so we aren’t TOO dry this January. I would actually love to see January (and maybe even February) end up slightly wetter than average in The Dalles (3″ of rain each month?) so that the Gorge can have an incredibly lush spring season this year. We normally get about 7″ of rain between December 1 and the end of winter, so maybe we can get close to 12″ by season’s end. That would help tremendously for local water tables, wheat growers, and wildlife – all of which are suffering from this droughty spell we’ve been in the last couple years.

    Of course spring is probably going to start early again this year, with green hillsides and early bulb blooms in February, then a lot of flowers and leaves by the end of March. Basically a wetter/greener version of what happened last season. But that could pose problems come May and June, as all the vegetation begins to dry out and we find ourselves with a massive load of fire fuel across the countryside.

  4. Rick says:

    Not too sure how January will end up, but review the November 19th Euro weeklies in the archive. I am pretty sure we did not end up from,’going from very wet to very dry’. Somewhere I have heard this has been the wettest month on record.😉

  5. Thankfully we’re in pretty good shape with regards to snow… for now.

    Hopefully there will be a wet, cool spring as well. Add that to the snow we have and we can end up with a near normal snowpack despite January and February being dominated by a split jet. (No, it’s not sure it will last that long yet, but even if it does this winter could come out pretty good.)

    That would, in fact, be the typical overall outcome (near-normal precip) for a super-strong El Niño year here.

  6. oldwxwatcher says:

    That rex block, once it sets up, looks like it will have some staying power.

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