Flurries/Showers This Evening

7:45pm Saturday…

Merry Christmas!  Sorry a little late, but hey, it’s only the 2nd day of Christmas; I’ve got 10 more days in which I can say that.

I’m working this evening and I’ll put together a blog post about this upcoming week after 00z models are in.

But, I notice a band of precipitation which no models seem to have accounted for is crossing the Coast Range.  It’s REALLY light stuff, but taking a look at the 4pm Salem balloon sounding:


It’s pretty obvious the atmosphere is cold enough for snowflakes to survive down into the lowlands.  Temperatures are a degree or two above freezing up around 2,000′, but it’s dry air and precip falling into that dry air will evaporate, cooling the atmosphere.  That’s what we call Evaporational Cooling or, as slang, Wetbulbing.  The highlighted column is what the temperature will be if the airmass “wetbulbs”.  Note below freezing all the way down almost to the surface.

So IF the precipitation survives the drier low levels and IF the band doesn’t fall apart entering the valley?  Then you may see snow or snow/rain mixed in the next couple of hours in the metro area.  It’s cold enough so that IF the precip holds together a dusting could accumulate at the top of the West Hills, Mt. Scott, Western Gorge etc…

A lot of IFs, but you get the idea.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to Flurries/Showers This Evening

  1. Max in Fairview says:

    Troutdale Airport reported light snow last update

    26 Dec 11:53 pm PST 35 31 85 24 E 20G26 5.00 -SN BR BKN038 OVC070

  2. esmewwax says:

    Corbett at about 500 ft- light snow is falling – 11:53 PM

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Just drove through that. First time I’ve driven in blowing snow since February 2014. Very nice with Christmas music playing. About 1/4″ at home at 1,000′ in the “East Hills” of Corbett

  3. Jonathan SEPDX says:

    Had some sprinkles that’s it

  4. Hal in Aims says:

    currently have sizzle here………almost heavy enough to be a flurry………

  5. lilfoot123 says:

    Doppler saying it snowing on us in Longview! I say Virga! Cold enough but nothing

  6. Jeff says:

    Falling as light rain in Forest Grove

  7. schmit44 says:

    12/26/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:51 at Gold Beach (US 1( 60 ft)
    Low: 38 at OCNSID Oceanside(22 ft) & ROCKWY Rockaway(450 ft) & EW3918 Newport(141 ft)

    High:14 at NYSSA(2172 ft)
    Low: -20 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    CRAZYMAN FLAT (36/-15 ) (6180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.42″ at UMPQUA NF PORTAB(2844ft)
    0.41″ at TIMOTHY(6099ft)
    0.40″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    0.31″ at J RIDGE(5180ft)
    0.30″ at SALT CREEK FALLS(4220ft)
    0.30″ at North Bend Munic(16ft)
    0.30″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    0.29″ at ZIM(4089ft)
    0.25″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)

  8. Paul D says:

    39 in Hillsboro. Nothing gonna happen here.

  9. mike(wilsonville) says:

    what does the next month look like? thanks.

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    IF is what keeps us relentlessly on watch!

  11. Some sort of precip falling on the Quartz Creek cam.

  12. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    East wind guru? Are you there?

  13. JohnD says:

    Oh Yeah! Our Weather Guru has arrived! Here’s looking forward to an awesome week ahead!

  14. runrain says:

    Pretty wild winds down here in Southern Cal. Lots of tumbleweeds blowing across the freeway with winds probably gusting to 50. 60 deg but doesn’t feel like it with the wind.

  15. “it’s only the 2nd day of Christmas; I’ve got 8 more days….”

    OMFG Mark, how on earth did you ever make it through weather school with THOSE kind of math skills?!? 😛

    Anyway…..wow, interesting to note that we have a shot at TWO minor snow events now in the Gorge (tomorrow and Wednesday), and that late next week is now looking a lot colder. I have a feeling that if your general idea for temps in the New Year holds together, it could end up being the coldest overall weather of the 2015-16 winter season.

  16. Runtmc says:

    I appreciate the update, Mark. I’m in Pacific City and this (obviously) does not appear to be a very wet system.

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