11pm Thursday…
It’s just about Christmas time and I’m on vacation now through Christmas Day. I’ll be out of town through Tuesday the 22nd too.
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Wind just arrived here in Beaverton, get ready Porrland. Just heard a gust that had to be near 50, then big explosion, transformer maybe,
Both GFS and NAM mm5 models show mid 980s low tracking over vicinity of Astoria. Keep the warnings as is. High winds are not guaranteed and certainly will not impact the whole valley to same extent .
Will be in wait and see mode.
00z WRF has also joined the deeper MM5-NAM taking a more compact and deeper low than its 12z run around 985mb landfall mouth of Columbia River. It then races east northeast towards Mt. Saint Helens deepening another millibar to 984mb. Importantly this is the first run now showing damaging winds on the 12km wind gust model with 45-50kt gusts right over PDX. A PDX-EUG gradient of 10-12mb is shown.
Checking out Wolf’s page and this looks analogous to the Jan.7-8 atmospheric river storm. That was 990Mb and it gusted to 63mph at PDX. I remember that series of storms and that particular one was right in the middle of a continuous series of storms. The saturated soil really is a problem. Especially if we get high sustained winds. This will be interesting to watch.
Rob
I see the water vapor image–what is your analysis?
Rob is usually wrong as he is not a trained weatherperson
Flippant negativism is inappropriate to say the least–especially during times like these! Rob has huge weather passion and technological acumen. Those of us similarly inclined should applaud his efforts, expertise and input. Greatly valued and appreciated.
Low is organizing nicely. Dry slot starting to peek out becoming visible. Lightning detection is also now picking up strikes signaling intensification. It’s probably around 993mb already..
Merry Christmas, Lance
You are a lackluster troll, Lance. Your trolling lacks creativity or humor. Go back to finishing them off with two exclamation points for forced emphasis. We could at least laugh AT you for that.
For sure, Runtmc. Nothing but really low quality trolls of late.
Not worthy of a response.
My own personal stalker Runtmc…. Try a little harder princess.
00z NAM/MM5 has come in deeper, especially the MM5.
NAM NCEP 4km hi-res 984mb near Long Beach. Low deepens 3 more millibars to 981mb as it moves east-northeast towards the Washington Cascades. That’s a key factor, along with its fast movement. PDX-EUG gradient around 10mb.
UW MM5 a much deeper and more compact run from 12z. 984mb landfall mouth of Columbia River moving east-northeast towards south Washington Cascades. Low deepens to near 982mb as it nears and passes Mt. Saint Helens .PDX-EUG gradient of 11 to 12mb. Yikes. 3hr Pressure Rises of 8mb.
For what its worth this run also shows a bit more robust ridge/anomaly building over the Aleutians compared to 12z.
If nothing else it is rare that the actual event ever matches the intensity of the model. Still seems like we are in for a blow ahead of Christmas.
Good news on the ridge.
Bet a 7 degree anomaly gets weatherdan hotter than a 16 year old with a woodrow. I’m so tired of him talking about warm anomalies I’m about to puke. I bet you he never had a chance in high school to go under the bleachers. Otherwise he might be a real man. A real weather man.
Can’t wait for the 0Z BFS: Bleacher Forecast System
What’s the matter boy, you sure do make ridiculously stupid comments on this blog, most women I know would give you a damn good paddling and send you to bed without your supper or your nuck for trying to express your boyhood in this most inappropriate way.
OMG, FT, Go puke and spare the rest of us the faux drama…
I’m sitting out here in the middle of 5 very treeish acres in the far reaches of Boring and I’m thinking that this is about as saturated as I’ve seen this ground since I got here in 2010. Very high winds at this point will almost certainly wreak havoc around here…
Maybe even more ominous is that the only time I ever get a headache is when there’s a big weather system approaching and today I have had one of the worst in memory.
I see a lot of folks referring to the wind storm of 1995. I wonder if this is the same kind of system that’s approaching now…
Charge your cell phone, laptop, etc. Get to the store quickly to stock up on beer before it runs out.
Wish Mark a great vacation but sure wish he was on duty. I trust him more than any of the other weathermen or women in the area. When things jump to a warning I take it seriously and with the soil being what it is it does not sound good at all.
Mark is good weatherpeople.
He’s a true weatherman,as far as I’m concerned the rest are just newscasters,not to kiss butt or anything,
but just stating a fact!!!!!
300MP Jet Stream Analysis
http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/WODetails.asp?curNoaa=ORZ011&curName=North%20Oregon%20Cascades
I remember when the weather was exciting enough to have long model riding sessions nightly leading up. Seems like it’s been a few years since we’ve had a good winter where that was warranted.
So far in December we are running an incredible 7.2 degrees above normal. Record warmth and yet we continue to get crazy amounts of snow in the mountains. The last 10 days of the month do look cooler. At least back down to average and maybe below. A White Christmas would be nice. Nov of 1973 had 17.73 inches. Our wettest month since records started being kept in 1892. As of today we have had 12.94 inches so far in December. We should at least get to 16.00 inches and might still break the record. Now if we get this powerful storm to verify we can have record winds, rain, and warmth in the same month. And if Rob is right we might even see record snow for Christmas. Something for everyone. Merry Christmas and a Peaceful New Year.
The only reason that average is so high is because those two 60° rainy days. Otherwise we are probably pretty average in the temp department.
We are much warmer than last December, 70s and 80s this week towards Christmas. No chance of a White Christmas this year in San Antonio! Batten down the Garbage Cans, I remember 1995 well first time I ever got let out of work early for a wind storm!
Boring, two days in the low 60,s won’t account for us being over 7 degrees above normal. However 14 of the first 20 days this month over 50 does explain it. Also our very warm for December nights. It has just been a very warm and a very wet December. Peace.
Dan, methinks your argument is the more valid interpretation of our abnormally high average temps.
Given the soils are saturated, if we get 60-65mph gusts, could be worst damage since 1995 windstorm for north Willamette valley, with cool to cold wet weather following adding insult to injury. Am holed up in Government Camp at cabin tonight. Am anticipating strong winds around noon tomorrow
So the wind is supposed to switch to the west as the low crests the Cascades? Am I interpreting that correctly?
I agree. Strong wind this soon after weeks of record rainfall isn’t what we needed. Hopefully the low doesn’t waste any time departing the area.