Here’s the note I just sent to the newsies…lots of uncertainty late tonight and tomorrow in the Gorge.
Easy forecast for lots of rain the next 36 hours, but Gorge forecast is very tough right now…a HUGE amount of uncertainty in what’s going to happen in the Gorge late tonight:
- For Thursday morning, heavy precipitation will be falling in the central/western Gorge, but both the NWS and we are unsure how much cold air will work into the Gorge during the night. Right now it’s in the 40s, but a wind switch should cool temps to around freezing by daybreak (didn’t mention evaporative cooling for the news people).
- Assuming temperatures fall to freezing, precipitation type will be freezing rain in Corbett/Cape Horn/Multnomah Falls area transitioning to mainly snow from Cascade Locks to The Dalles. Amounts are very uncertain due to not knowing how cold it’s going to get.
- Because of the uncertainty, the NWS has dropped Winter Storm Watch and converted to Winter Weather Advisory for most of the Gorge. The Hood River Valley is under a Winter Storm Warning due to a better chance for deeper/colder air there.
We get new model info between 7:30-9pm which should give us a better idea how cold it’ll be later tonight when the precipitation arrives. Sorry to be so wishy-washy, but we don’t like to forecast a huge snow/ice storm when cold air hasn’t arrived and may/may not show up.
For west of the Cascades, lots of rain begins late this evening then continues all day tomorrow and into tomorrow night. Expect 1.50-2.50” in the lowlands. Enough for some rivers to return to flood stage and set off more mudslides. At this time a widespread “Halloween-like” urban flooding event doesn’t seem likely since we don’t see tons of rain in just a couple hours. More likely a steady moderate rain for 12-18 hours.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen