10:45pm Update: Backing Off Snow/Ice

I know this is a bit strange…just an hour later.  But I’ve changed my mind after seeing temperatures fail to drop this hour and the HRRR model showing temps bottoming out only in the mid 30s by morning in the central/eastern Gorge.  I think models have overdone the cold/dry air so I’m backing off a bit.  Still a good snowstorm in the hills of the eastern Gorge, but anything frozen is unlikely in the western Gorge except maybe up around 1,000′.

THIS is what I am really showing tonight at 10:45pm:

MarkSnow_Gorge_ColdAirTrapped2

MarkSnow_Gorge_ColdAirTrapped

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

15 Responses to 10:45pm Update: Backing Off Snow/Ice

  1. I’m waiting to see the first snowflakes of the season here. We are forecasted to see possibly mixed precipitation starting anytime this morning. Yesterday the view of the mountains was just wonderful!

    • There is some Fraser outflow this morning, which has lowered dew points up your way enough that you just might. So far the moisture has stayed to your south, but radar shows something coming your way. I’d say at this point it’s a race to see if it arrives early enough to avoid daytime warming or not.

  2. Warmed up about five degrees overnight despite there being no strong winds. No lowland snow reported anywhere, so far as I can tell. So much for a “timing is everything” scenario. Oh well, odds were against it all along anyhow.

    • Looks like the highway cams at Hood River and Cascade Locks are showing frozen stuff. Stevenson just looks rainy and wet, but it’s hard to tell the difference between wet and light glaze.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Yay!

  4. Lee Wilson says:

    I have learned one thing, our weather here in the NW, is the most difficult to predict.

    I see online terms with as much as 5 to 10 degree differences, have had winds popping to 50 or higher and not e en show up online, woke to ice . When it said 34 but really was 28.

    I have found one weather station here in the local area.
    That spews warmer temps..found out 1 it is located about 20 feet up in an area near a road. On a corner of a street near the river.

    yet my ground level unit states the true temp.

    Look, all I know is we been through he’ll so far.

    people lost homes, roads are damaged because of all the water. And I have not heard a train in the last 4 days here in Castle Rock.

    When I don’t hear a train, I wonder about how soft the ground really must be.

    Then there was a small community of homes hit by the cowlitz. Some of these homes were 300 feet or better from the river..but the river went right over the bend..

    I fear, any more of this and one of these days, you will an on a tree and it will fall over.

    This is by far the worst I have seen it.

    Although I have a, old reel…of 1900 something film that shows a time when the Columbia River over ran it’s banks. If any in the new department is interested, I would love to let you borrow it if you know someone with an 8, not a Super 8 though projector.

    The film is aging but it could give you some perspective on just how wet we can get.

    • muxpux (Longview) says:

      What station are you talking about? The castle rock station is at DNR up on Bond Rd. Is that the one your talking about? For a while there was an online station on Delameter but I haven’t seen it lately

  5. paulbeugene says:

    Gotta like the Euro 00z run for next week. Very cold trough digging south from Alaska to California, snow falling in the Santa Lucia Mts south of Monterey.

    Heavy snows in the Sierra, Siskiyous and of course the Cascades in the next week.

    Pray for no landslides in the West Hills. 5-7 inches of rain in the next 10 days.

    • Yeah, nice 00z EURO run. Aleutian ridge is definitely stronger and more amplified than previous 3 runs. There seems to be a possible trend for this. Northerly flow is established by day 8 extending well offshore. Ridge tilts favorably into Yukon/northern BC by day 9 flow turns northeast, offshore flow for PDX. A pretty decent low-level blast via the Gorge and prolonged deep 925mb cold pool in place afterwards. Hints also that the progressive pattern may be ending and with all of that bitter air to the north. A lot of potential and as well a long ways out. Maybe by 00z Friday we’ll have an idea.

    • Lance says:

      Let the wishcasting begin!!

    • Runtmc says:

      Now, Lance, was that comment really clever enough to warrant TWO exclamation points? So pleased with yourself.

    • Does the GFS finally come around to the same conclusion though? This is the million dollar question to which it doesn’t want to get on board yet as of the 06Z

  6. MasterNate says:

    Final answer?

  7. Boring Oregon says:

    Waiting for the huge snowstorm post at 11:45. 🙂

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