We’ve Been Cheated! No Tied Record Yesterday

The NWS has made a change to that big 2.69″ rain total from yesterday.  They decided to go by calendar day instead of the hourly observations.  That means we have to take .07″ off Monday’s rain total.  Their corrected statement is great (highlights are mine):

Capture

The deal is that observations have never been taken at the top of the hour at official stations.  It has always been a few minutes before the top of the hour.  When we say “it’s 103 degrees right now at 5pm”, that means the observation was 103 degrees at 4:53pm for example.  Been that way my entire career and I assume a long time previous to that.  As far as I’m aware, those have always been counted as “top of the hour” for stats.  But maybe not and we typically don’t notice unless there is a heavy rain event right near the top of midnight?  Can anyone from NWS comment on it?

This just means we were not tied yesterday for wettest calendar day ever…it’s #2 now.

The great shame, knowing I was .02″ off all evening long…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

66 Responses to We’ve Been Cheated! No Tied Record Yesterday

  1. Mark, regarding the rainfall change… ASOS always reports the exact midnight to midnight data for the day’s climate report, and it can be different than the 6 hourly observations. It has been that way since the ASOS became official obs taker…so since the mid to late 90’s or so. Your guess that it just happened to matter this time because of the record and the heavy rainfall (hence rainfall during the last 7 minutes of December 6th) is correct. It is somewhat unusual for the numbers to be different but not impossible.

    I used to work at the NWS. Happened to see this entry when I was perusing your page to see if there was news on your new hire. :0)

  2. Goducks09 says:

    Don’t look now, but the GFS is making things quite interesting in the 7-10 day range… All eyes on the Euro… Will it take the bait the GFS is dangling?! Find out tonight at 11! 🙂

  3. Jonathan SEPDX says:

    My house was swaying pretty good there for a few hours but things have calmed down considerably in the last half hour or so

    • W7ENK says:

      Calmed down? Really?? It’s been insane here in the center of The Dome for the last several hours, hasn’t let up yet! Supposed to keep going if not get stronger by 11pm or Midnight. Should subside once the front passes.

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    Winds are ripping up here in the Cascade foothills above Sandy and Estacada.

  5. Jason Hougak says:

    That massive low over Asia is packed full of the Chinese toxic air that’s been poisoning them in Beijing with the worst air quality condition they’ve ever had.

  6. Jason Hougak says:

    I’m ready for some massive record breaking snow event to happen. The cold air would be epic if accompanied by a foot of snow before it sets in. If it doesn’t I’ll have to bust out the snow maker again.

  7. Paul D says:

    Whatever…..

  8. Dave_in_Troutdale says:

    This is starting to sound like High Desert Mat’s sex life. “I swear it’s 2.69”! As Larry the Cable Guy said, “Lord forgive me, send me down with the starvin’ pygmies down in Papa New Guinea.

    Anyhow, round 2 is on its way. What’s the record 48 hour rainfall totals for PDX???

  9. Often during the Winter Months when the models are suggesting a ridge might develop over the eastern Aleutians/Gulf of Alaska with a block potentially evolving I will read the Forecast Discussion from the Anchorage/Juneau/Fairbanks NWS. I do so to see what their forecasters take on things are as how things develop upstream in those areas has everything to do with our weather downstream over Washington and Oregon. I just found a nice little nugget of information from the Anchorage NWS forecast discussion. It looks like the GFS solution may be the correct one and in their estimation models are trending that way. They refer to the massive system I’ve been highlighting in my analysis that moves over Shemya/western Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. Not concrete yet, but this would give weight to the improvement we’ve seen with the GFS, 500mb anomalies, and Analog Composites and suggests we may see the EURO/CMC moves towards this solution too. Confidence is low, but I am cautiously optimistic. It all rides on the mega deep low bomb and if the energy holds back into the Bering.

    SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
    414 PM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

    .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)…
    MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN BERING BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK…COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK IN OVER THE AREA. MODELS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT…WITH THE GFS BRINGING A DEEP LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING DURING THE WEEKEND…AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS AND WPC BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ***THE ONE SHINING LIGHT ON ALL THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE MODELS STARTED TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION ***…BRINGING THE LOW CENTER FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER. HOWEVER…FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE…AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

    • JohnD says:

      Can you dumb this down for some of we nerds Rob?
      Thanks.

    • I can try….
      Models are consistent with two scenarios. GFS bombs the low around 930mb near Shemya/western Aleutians energy holds back into Bering long wave trough back near Siberian Coast. Ridge pops up over eastern Aleutians, moves east, amplifies over western Gulf of Alaska, slides east a bit becomes a block really amplifying near 140-145 W. This leads to a decent probability of a cold shot for us.

      EURO/CMC take the same low a bit further south around 940mb and drives it east into southern Alaskan mainland. Ridge develops, but only briefly due to energy not being held back and the ridge flattens a bit. Far less chance of a cold pattern developing.

      The massive low developing off Asia is all that matter. It is the #1 key player and driving force in the pattern day 6-10. Anchorage NWS suggests the EURO/CMC may be trending towards the GFS now. Somewhere Paul B. is rooting for the Kamchatka bomb to move into the Bering pumping up a huge ridge.

    • Winter lover says:

      I too look at other areas forecast discussions. Especially Missoula and kalispell area. They lock onto cold spells sooner than we do because if they are wrong they don’t look as bad because they get winter whether quite often in the winter time anyway.

    • JohnD says:

      Thanks Rob.
      You rock!

    • matt in the gorge says:

      Even dumb it down further… Is this prediction cold dry air, similar to last week? Cold, dry and sunny? Colder? Moisture? Are we talking a snow event? For us wanna be’s…

    • paulbeugene says:

      no ridge no arctic cold. Doesn’t mean no snow.

    • paulbeugene says:

      winter of 68-69 was exceptional for all that snow in Washington and Oregon but the 500mb heights were mostly in the 550s or less over interior AK, Anchorage, sometimes in 560s over the Aleutians.
      Even with the intrusion of the extremely cold airmass before New Years, the heights were not very high (552) over AK. Most of the time with arctic blasts you get heights over 564 if not 570 over ANC

  10. Mark, I can tell you of a REAL theft that took place up here some years ago: I think it was February 2004 and it was a very sunny month. Anyway, with 3 days left (it was on the 26th) and a record for sunshine hours in February about to be broken, someone stole the glass ball of the sunshine recording instrument (Campbell-Stockes) at the Vancouver Airport station. if I recall correctly, they never found it- so a new one had to be put in.

  11. Jason Hougak says:


    Christmas Day

  12. Jason Hougak says:

    Geez the 18Z GFS has gone arctic Sunday December 20-24 with cold dry air. 850mb temps -8 to -13C. 925mb temps -5 to -14C. The models are crazy. I remember last year at New Years when the models blew. Nice to look at.

  13. Wind Advisory is definitely going to verify tonight and we might even see some localized gusts to 50mph or so. I am gusting over 40mph and Happy Valley up to 45mph already. If you like strong, gusty wind, loud roaring ferocity, tonight will be fun for one and all! Power Outages are also rising fairly steadily now and that’s only going to increase. At least it’s really mild out, so if we should lose power it won’t get too chilly inside….

  14. Wendy-Silverlake, WA says:

    Is there still supposed to be wind tonight?

  15. matt in the gorge says:

    Well, we reached half the 72 hr total in the last 2 hrs. 1.19 and still pouring. In cascade locks.

  16. The 18Z sure is fun… Perhaps a white Christmas if that where to verify. It’ll be gone in the 00Z but we can dream for now. No?

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kttd

  17. boninepaul says:

    Different Topic: Warmth.. My overnight low was 59ºF. What is the warmest overnight low ever in December?

  18. Marc (East Vancouver) says:

    Doesn’t it seem odd for someone to forecast 2-4″ of rain? I saw that somewhere online. That seems like a very broad forecasting range.

    I get when people forecast 2-4″ of snow because that’s the difference of roughly 0.2″ of liquid precipitation. That’s a more appropriate range, but I don’t understand the rain range of 2-4″ of rain. It’s like someone saying, “expect 1-21″ of snow”.

    • Sapo says:

      Not sure who forecasted 2-4″, but yes it’s broad if you’re talking about a specific area. If talking about a more general area it is more acceptable, but still, 2″ is a big margin

  19. Charlie at mt scott summit
    total rain here 4.66 since early yesterday. peak gust 40. check out the 142 mph gust at top of cascade express at mt hood meadows.

  20. 1.22″ rain since midnight. 0.47″ fell between 1 and 1:30pm this afternoon..

  21. muxpux (Longview) says:

    Dead air and pouring here. Road is flooded

  22. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    …Also, we have just had our wettest hour during these wet weather events. Well, according to the NWS Portland office.

    12/07/2015 – 09:53: 0.48″ of rain.
    12/08/2015 – 13:53: 0.53″ of rain.

    Then again, the 6 hours preceding that yesterday compared to today were:

    12/07/2015 – 1.69″ of rain.
    12/08/2015 – 0.83″ of rain.

    Just goes to show you how hourly rainfall rates can cause such damage.

  23. Max in Fairview says:

    Round 2 is here. With the already saturated ground, just a little gusty wind will play havoc.

  24. alohabb says:

    Where’s all the wind???

  25. alohabb says:

    Heavy rain having a toll in Aloha. Farmington rd just past 185th is flooded. 6″ or so deep. The ditches on the side of the road are all about to spill over into Farmington from 198th to 185!

  26. W7ENK says:

    It’s all lies! I want my money back!!

  27. Jason Hougak says:

    “We were robbed by a little old lady in a motorized cart… and I didn’t even see it coming!”

  28. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Thanks NWS, now I have to go through the rest of my day knowing that what I said was a lie. I gloated about us tying the record, even made Facebook posts about it. You know how official Facebook is? Yeah, so I went on the LEGAL RECORD to say that we hit 2.69″ of rain.

    You know what? No, I won’t accept the change. It’s still 2.69″… If the NWS can arbitrarily change the number, so can I. In fact, we had 2.7L” of rain yesterday. L is now a number.

    • Haha!! L is now a number. Thanks for the morning laugh!

    • W7ENK says:

      2.750 where L = Roman Numeral for 50.

      That works for me!

      Unless that makes it 7 less than L, which would be 2.43, which makes it even worse for you… :-/

    • W7ENK says:

      Or, you could say that represents 2.7 Liters.

      Since metric is all derivatives of base 10 (decimal), and thus the units for length and volume are technically interchangeable, rainfall is measured in millimeters, so that would mean we received 2.7 meters of rainfall yesterday, which converts to approximately 106.3 inches.

      Let’s go with that!! 😀

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      No. I don’t mean Liters/Litres. I meant L. Like… No, you know what? You made me decide against L as a number. Arbitrarily, I will now say that our total yesterday was 314.592RKP” of rain.

      ” = Seramasterson

  29. paulbeugene says:

    As far as I concerned, what happened yesterday in Portland pales in comparison to the events of Oct 1994 and Nov 1996 when PDX got 4.44 and 4.10 inches respectively (in 24 hours, not calendar day). The small stream flooding seems to have been worse yesterday than back then given that much of it fell in several hours.

    Am still very interested in what happens this weekend. Models still showing idea of deepening low headed to Oregon coast Saturday, with cool air mass in place beforehand. There will be lots of moisture with this system. Someone is going to get a lot of rain (2-3″ in 24 hours perhaps in the valley), and snow to very low elevations, somewhere, cannot be ruled out.

    As for the Wednesday into Thursday storm, GFS develops secondary low but other models not so much. If there is going to be a windstorm this week in the Willamette Valley, it would have to be from this secondary low, but I am thinking it is unlikely we get HWW category winds from this here.

    Euro about to come out.

    • Sapo says:

      Snow to very low elevations? Sounds good to me! You think Portland has a shot?

      Not sure if I’m remembering correctly or not, but it looks similar to the snowstorm we had like 2 years ago in February, just warmer.

  30. pappoose in scappoose says:

  31. paulbeugene says:

    Get over it guys..if you feel cheated, think how I felt when it got to 10 below zero at Eugene Airport two years ago but it happened to fall on the day that it was -12F in 1972.
    First by the way

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