Big Flood/Mud Issues Tonight

11:45pm Tuesday…

Things went crazy the past two hours in the newsroom with widespread reports of flooding/mudslides/landslides blocking freeways and going into towns.

To summarize:

  • Tons of flooding in Kalama and Rainier this evening.  Almost 4″ of rain in the past 24 hours in those locations as the heavy band of rain sat up there most of today
  • Nehalem River in Vernonia is at its highest level since the big 2007 flood
  • Wilson River at Tillamook and Nehalem at Nehalem the highest since 2007 flood
  • Numerous highways blocked by debris/mud/water to the north and west of the metro area.

Hopefully we can avoid a big deadly mudslide, but I sure wouldn’t be surprised to see lots more slides in the next 24 hours.

Note the big rain totals around the notoriously wet south Washington Cascades.  Over a foot of rain the past 3 days near Ape Cave!


63 Responses to Big Flood/Mud Issues Tonight

  1. 00z ECMWF isn’t great through HR 192. This run is nothing like the GFS or CMC. Model disagreement and no trend established beyond HR 120-144 continues.

  2. 00z GFS Not a great run, very odd compared to any other run, including any GFS, CMC, or EURO. 00z CMC MUCH improved. Not arctic, but Far colder than previous runs. Nice cold/offshore flow. 00z GFS ENS 850mb mean No improvement, but didn’t worsen either. I see pretty solid agreement through HR 120-144, then a lot of uncertainty beyond HR 144-156 how to handle energy moving off Asia, Bering Low #2, amplification of ridge, etc.

  3. schmit44 says:

    12/9/2015 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:70 at BLALOK( 277 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)
    Low: 54 at CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft) & North Bend Munic(16 ft) & Gold Beach (US 1(60 ft) & CW1063 Reedsport(0 ft) & EW1135 Yachats1(32 ft) & Florence Municip(52 ft)

    High:33 at Mt Hood Meadows(7300 ft)
    Low: 21 at Mt Hood Meadows (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    BLALOK (70/40 ) (277 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.20″ at BLAZED ALDER(3650ft)
    2.88″ at Timberline Lodge(5880ft)
    2.80″ at NORTH FORK(3060ft)
    2.55″ at Mt Hood Meadows(5380ft)
    2.44″ at EW4856 Brookings(1365ft)
    2.34″ at CW2664 Corbett(659ft)
    2.30″ at LITTLE MEADOWS(4020ft)
    2.30″ at SADDLE MOUNTAIN(3110ft)
    2.20″ at SMITH RIDGE(3270ft)
    2.20″ at BURNT RIDGE(2955ft)
    2.10″ at MCKENZIE(4770ft)
    2.10″ at MT HOOD TEST SIT(5370ft)
    2.09″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    2.07″ at CHARLOTTE RIDGE(1220ft)
    2.06″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    2.03″ at Ski Bowl Base(3660ft)
    2.00″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2690ft)

  4. Jason Hougak says:

    00Z and 18Z do agree for next week. We’ll just have to continue on with our hope for an epic PNW snowstorm. Still early and maybe the 18Z will be right…

  5. flurball says:

    And like a epic cheese log at the holiday party, the coldest air is gone on the 0Z GFS. Hershey Kiss cookies might still be available though and hopefully it doesn’t evovle in to just fruit cake.

  6. moosieman says:

    Farmer Ted,
    From a longtime lurker, Why even post something negative? What satisfaction do you gain? Alot of us enjoy everyone’s WEATHER inputs.. right or wrong its why we follow the blog. Happy Holidays!!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Beat it Ted. Poser. Don’t be jealous of Donald just cause he was way more successful in his life than u ever will be. His views are a little obscure but so be it. Better than Hillary.

      Jason, just keep up the good work. I, along with most others on here love to hear your optimism about the WEATHER!! Bring it on!!

  7. Farmer Ted says:


    Go to a Trump rally, just get out of the house, and give the blog a rest. We don’t care about your stick figure family.

  8. Jason Hougak says:

    850mb temps Dec.26

    • Joshua Downtown PDX says:

      I will be headed to Leavenworth that day. I wonder what kind of temps that would translate to should it verify? Extremely unlikely, I know.

    • Jason Hougak says:

      I went rock climbing in Leavenworth this summer up Icicle Canyon. Awesome place and I’m jealous your going in the winter. Enjoy temps in the single digits if the 18Z comes to be reality. It’s been gung-ho on the cold air but to the extreme than the other GFS models.

    • marinersfan85 says:

      Going to the Seahawks game on the 27th. A white game would be great.

    • Farmer Ted says:


      Please, TMO, just relax with your family.

  9. High Desert Mat says:

    After watching the models the last week or so religiously, I still think theres going to be a happy medium between the gfs and the euro. A couple days ago the euro was shoeing cold then it went a little more climo but still chilly nonetheless. The gfs has stuck to its guns the entire time almost and has snow down to valley floor at some point next week. This really reminds alot of what happened Thanksgiving week. Maybe a tad cooler just because we are later in the year. The ensembles for both models reflect this. This time though it seems to last longer I it plays out as modeled today. That low this weekend looks to be a headache for Mets around the area if u ask me. The track is crucial. Anyways, here’s to hoping it all comes to fruition and we all have a white Xmas this year. It’s been 7 years now.

    Btw, where is Dan? Haven’t heard from him much since the weather got cool and really wet. I guess he got all the rain he wasn’t wishing for awhile back and winter arrived in a big way so he’s hibernating? Merry Xmas all!!

  10. Jason Hougak says:

    18Z what a teaser 👙, surface temps Christmas Day

  11. 12z EC ENS 500mb better looking than the operational. 18z, oh you drunken Uncle. It’s clear why this run is so cold. The 2 key Bering lows from HR 96-110, HR 144-156 I’ve highlighted in my analysis develop as other models show, but take a slightly further west track towards Shemya and curl north moving towards the Siberian Coast. This is similar to yesterdays 18z/00z. Bering low #2 is deeper and as well tracks well nearly the same path low #1 takes. Each time the ridge reorganizes, builds, amplifies all hinges on that. Where as this run is an outlier for sure, it isn’t impossible at the same time. It all depends on how models handle those lows.

    • Sapo says:

      Ya I hope it happens..well I don’t think it’ll be THAT cold (rarely is in these kind of scenarios) but hopefully it’ll be cold and we’ll get a snowstorm or something…lol

    • MasterNate says:

      All I want for Christmas is for this 18z run to verify! That’s it really.

  12. The 18Z is just trolling us now!

  13. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I-5 north closed just north of Woodland. I was driving through that area today and commented that I got the chills right there because it seems everything was so primed to slide. 4 hours later it did. Scary!

  14. Sapo says:

    WRF-GFS gives Portland metro area about 1-3″ on Wednesday morning-noonish..
    We’ll see. But a more interesting weather pattern coming up soon

    • If you check the UW MM5 loop or the Unisys GFS/AVN loop it shows the low curling south and barreling towards Portland. I’m pretty sure that is the low at least.

  15. Jason Hougak says:

    12Z GFS still cold not as extreme as yesterday’s 18Z but more precipitation 👍🏼👍🏼

  16. Jason Hougak says:

    12z GFS white Christmas -6C both 850 and 925mb with precip.

    • -6˚C at the 925 mb (about 2500 feet) level sounds pretty good for lowland snow to me. Needless to say, at that many days out it’s hardly a sure thing. But it sure beats an extended outlook with nothing but the splitty ridgy blahs in it!

  17. Farmer Ted says:

    Lower Logan area near Barton Park:

    4 day rain total from Saturday noon until Wednesday noon;

    8.5 inches

    (Side note I have installed extensive water management measures over the past 35 years on my 10 acre farm, with a major upgrade in August of 2014 when I rented a backhoe for all of the month to properly grade my drainage ditch, install two holding ponds and three 12 inch diameter culverts. Also hundreds of feet of French drains and groundwater tile. Pleased to say it worked to perfection and my home and out buildings are high and dry.)

  18. rustyoregon says:

    Roads turning white at Govy. Forecast looks promising for the resorts through the weekend. Monday should be nice for skiing.

  19. paulbeugene says:

    Wed 11am

    Models still insisting on relatively cool period for this time of the year this weekend into next week. Should get some decent snow at pass elevation. Timberline, Meadows, Bachelor should be in good shape. The lower elevation ski areas, might be borderline for opening two weekends from now. The Euro model dries things out after day 6 with a moderate amplitude 500mb ridge just to our west, with flow from the NNE, once again conducive to developing a cold air mass in the Columbia Basin, although not looking as cold as what we had a couple weeks ago. That should get the gorge winds kicking up again (sorry Gresham/Troutdale).

    Some low elevation snow still a possible situation early next week. Mm5 showed a skiff to a couple inches on the valley floor. Euro showing at skiff at most.

  20. Jane - Forest Grove says:

    Any more wind warnings/advisories in our area in the next 4 days? ….we need to dry out first.

  21. W7ENK says:

    What a wild storm that was this morning, eh??

    I woke up just before 3:30 this morning to the sound of pounding rain and raging wind gusts. Staring out my window, it was almost like watching a severe thunderstorm, the sky kept lighting up with flashes in all directions every few seconds, but instead of the crack and boom of thunder, the brighter flashes were followed by the loud buzzing or humming of arc flashes from power lines. This lasted only about 10 minutes and then it was suddenly all over with, like flipping a switch.

    Light sprinkles.
    Dead calm.

    My power stayed on, but the entirety of lower Milwaukie was without power from SE 37th all the way through downtown past McLoughlin, South to River Road and as far North as I could see. The Orange Line MAX was not running, so after waiting nearly an hour for a shuttle, we got to figure out how to cram nearly 150 people into a single bus, of which the driver promptly got lost and started zig-zagging back and forth through Sellwood and West Moreland. What a cluster- that was!

    After leaving the house a half hour earlier than normal, I finally got to work 20 minutes late… but hey, the driver didn’t make anyone pay since TriMet still hasn’t figured out how accept credit/debit cards on their buses. Still undecided on whether that circus was worth the $2.50 saved, however.

  22. Sapo says:

    18z, 00z, and 6z GFS all very cold..

  23. pappoose in scappoose says:


  24. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Seattle AFD mentions lowland snow.

    407 AM PST WED DEC 9 2015


  25. Jason Hougak says:

    Awoke to the fropa causing the sound of limbs hitting house. Sounds like a freight train outside. Radar showing the back edge of steady rain coming across metro area.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Certainly was wild.
      Had to get up. I’d like to participate in my floating/blowing away!

      Daylight will be interesting.

    • sds says:

      frontal passage woke everyone up with tin roofing banging around at 3:23 this AM up river from Woodland–heavy rain stopped after FP.

  26. Hal in Aims says:

    just had apparent fropa here……..scary windy…..large limbs and debris hitting the house…….amazing power is still on…can’t wait for daylight….

  27. Jane-Forest Grove says:

    Loud noises outside woke me up. Wind speed??

  28. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Putting the rain into perspective…we’ve had more rain in 8 days than we did in May, June, July, August and September combined.

    7.00″ in BG as of 12:05 AM today. Lots of street flooding and water flowing up out of manhole covers which I’ve never seen in person.

  29. Fire hose aimed right at CC currently. Raining hard here. 1.87″ since midnight.

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